tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post7757600141074598546..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Near-term Fed pivot almost guaranteedScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger40125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-85101842068852580202022-11-23T12:21:48.048-08:002022-11-23T12:21:48.048-08:00https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DEMDEPNS
Grann...https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DEMDEPNS<br /><br />Grannis deleted my time series.Salmo Truttahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13910212017849902362noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-6659413371766247042022-11-23T12:07:28.964-08:002022-11-23T12:07:28.964-08:00Dan Thornton is correct. “Money Supply and Inflati...Dan Thornton is correct. “Money Supply and Inflation: Where’s the Proof?” WSJ July 21, 2022<br /><br />Link: George Garvey:<br />Deposit Velocity and Its Significance (stlouisfed.org)<br /><br />“Obviously, velocity of total deposits, including time deposits, is considerably lower than that computed for demand deposits alone. The precise difference between the two sets of ratios would depend on Salmo Truttahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13910212017849902362noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-76769385556944572142022-11-23T11:41:28.954-08:002022-11-23T11:41:28.954-08:00Totally agree with your premise. I'm just try...Totally agree with your premise. I'm just trying to find a reliable measure of DDs so I can follow along with your logic as things progress. What source do you use to track demand deposits?Downtown Adam Brownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07019897390680887031noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-87986857597920538132022-11-23T11:38:09.546-08:002022-11-23T11:38:09.546-08:00DDs rate-of-change, short-term money flows, proxy ...DDs rate-of-change, short-term money flows, proxy for real output, is rising. And Atlanta's gDpnow confirms this. And you don't use the seasonally mal-adjusted #s.Salmo Truttahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13910212017849902362noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-85406343328826310522022-11-23T11:29:51.865-08:002022-11-23T11:29:51.865-08:00Salmo, is this a good measure of DDs? https://fred...Salmo, is this a good measure of DDs? https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DEMDEPSL<br /><br />If, so...haven't DDs fallen for 2 months now?<br />August: 5239.5<br />September: 5179.3<br />October: 5126.5<br /><br />Granted a more "normal" range would be something much closer to 2000 or less, so at what point would you classify DD's as reversing or falling? When is it a Downtown Adam Brownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07019897390680887031noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-11890188870306640012022-11-23T09:32:57.735-08:002022-11-23T09:32:57.735-08:00M2 hasn't changed for c. 1 year. But DDs have ...M2 hasn't changed for c. 1 year. But DDs have risen. I.e., the composition of M2 has changed. So, the "demand for money" has fallen, and thus velocity has risen. So, short-term money flows are rising at the same time long-term money flows are falling. Until short-term money flows reverse, a recession will not happen.<br /><br />09/1/2021 ,,,,, 20957.9<br />10/1/2021 ,,,,, 21098.0<brSalmo Truttahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13910212017849902362noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-39716531666631010682022-11-23T09:19:52.623-08:002022-11-23T09:19:52.623-08:00https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rDtVABEzcy4
That&...https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rDtVABEzcy4<br /><br />That's how QE affects the stock market.Salmo Truttahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13910212017849902362noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-34274945621149370712022-11-22T18:54:33.252-08:002022-11-22T18:54:33.252-08:00Scott,
Another excellent M2 number today! Look fo...Scott,<br /><br />Another excellent M2 number today! Look forward to your thoughts and next write-up -<br /><br />Thanks!<br /><br />Tom<br />Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04067053299094535546noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-68612889107599780292022-11-22T10:50:54.085-08:002022-11-22T10:50:54.085-08:00What the data on the money stock shows, is that th...What the data on the money stock shows, is that the demand for money, decline in savings deposits, has increased the velocity of circulation. Salmo Truttahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13910212017849902362noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-70151372693015085392022-11-22T06:15:37.133-08:002022-11-22T06:15:37.133-08:00Steve,
Regarding Research Affiliates. Rob Arnott...Steve,<br /><br />Regarding Research Affiliates. Rob Arnott is always worthy for insight outside of the group think. Still, looking at his flagship fund for navigating real returns shows - at least for 2022 - having clear insight doesn't necessarily translate to better returns in difficult times. His All Asset All Authority is down 19% YTD through Oct. Still again.. thanks for sharing therandyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16368254229927808998noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-18244351669646712732022-11-22T06:01:43.311-08:002022-11-22T06:01:43.311-08:00It's exactly as Lawrence K. Roos, Past Preside...It's exactly as Lawrence K. Roos, Past President, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and past member of the FOMC (the policy arm of the Fed) as cited in the WSJ April 10, 1986:<br /><br />"...I do not believe that the control of money growth ever became the primary priority of the Fed. I think that there was always and still is, a preoccupation with stabilization of interest rates".<Salmo Truttahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13910212017849902362noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-51379477672198315332022-11-22T05:50:18.347-08:002022-11-22T05:50:18.347-08:00re: “Is it possible that inflation will recede to ...re: “Is it possible that inflation will recede to 4% and then to 2% in the coming year or two? Of course, it’s possible! History says it is unlikely.”<br /><br />Money #s out on 4th Tuesday of the month. <br /><br />11/21/2022 WSJ<br /><br />"FED's aggressive rate hikes are a game changer? Monetary policy usually acts on the economy with long and variable lags?"<br /><br />A Salmo Truttahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13910212017849902362noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-85184700037717158912022-11-22T04:56:43.317-08:002022-11-22T04:56:43.317-08:00On the other hand:
https://www.researchaffiliates...On the other hand:<br /><br />https://www.researchaffiliates.com/publications/articles/965-history-lessons?evar36=eml_history-lessons-hero-cta&_cldee=jtwJrRvZVxxTwg17xUWaTF6AfkcO49sDOQ8Q2JNKCjt7nZycxFz8ohMJmq2bxcNg&recipientid=contact-e6289710c8cbe2119aa7005056bc3cff-ffc403a870ab419299ff09257799b630&esid=fdb5ee8c-3464-ed11-9562-0022481d0916stevehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07387986994469835875noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-7917025055765778452022-11-21T11:54:33.786-08:002022-11-21T11:54:33.786-08:00Interesting thoughts on the "Misery index&quo...Interesting thoughts on the "Misery index"/relationship between unemployment and inflation for the index. <br /><br />Some say unemployment rate is doubly (2x) as important as the inflation rate, some say up to 5x (Blanchflower).<br /><br />https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.91.1.335<br /><br />https://economics.dartmouth.edu/people/david-graham-blanchflowerwkevinwhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17600473578823788550noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-77780384737146236482022-11-20T21:22:35.118-08:002022-11-20T21:22:35.118-08:00Yes, Carl, that is a better way to characterise th...Yes, Carl, that is a better way to characterise the post GFC period. Why all that asset inflation did not show up at the consumer level is still a bit of a conundrum.<br />RichardRichard H.https://www.blogger.com/profile/11837604197337217284noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-42912128012242408342022-11-20T16:29:05.314-08:002022-11-20T16:29:05.314-08:00@Richard
"We got lucky after the great recess...@Richard<br />"We got lucky after the great recession as far as inflation - that people were saving and not borrowing so much."<br />Interesting but what characterized more the post GFC era was an era of monetary easing with artificially low interest rates which fed mostly through asset inflation and a very significant increase in combined public and private debt. That's how you getCarlhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01792779708580094262noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-8632909594524169732022-11-20T14:04:43.379-08:002022-11-20T14:04:43.379-08:00All of the links work fine for me. I say leave wel...All of the links work fine for me. I say leave well enough alone. I would suggest clearing your browser cache, updating browser , restart computer, or even get a newer computer, if you are having issues. Good Luck.Larryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06597176013557270931noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-24634119639097520832022-11-20T12:51:40.301-08:002022-11-20T12:51:40.301-08:00Going directly to blogger.com allowed me to add yo...Going directly to blogger.com allowed me to add your newsletter (as blogger is owned by Google I see, I guess I didn't even half to register). I assume that I will now get emails of your posts. <br />However, I see that it is still naming me as "unknown", instead of using my google username.?Richard H.https://www.blogger.com/profile/11837604197337217284noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-13339162384044383522022-11-20T11:56:02.338-08:002022-11-20T11:56:02.338-08:00Better to go to Substack. Then you automatically ...Better to go to Substack. Then you automatically notify your users and are able to charge as well.Salmo Truttahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13910212017849902362noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-24415505608482559832022-11-19T22:40:15.708-08:002022-11-19T22:40:15.708-08:00Unknown Richard: I admit to being semi-illiterate ...Unknown Richard: I admit to being semi-illiterate when it comes to such links. I'd welcome suggestions from readers. For now, the only thing that really seems to work is to follow me on Twitter. I like Twitter much more now that Musk is in charge.<br /><br />What I probably should do is switch to Substack or WordPress. But it requires an investment of time that I seem to lack. Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-68015470178012713812022-11-18T10:59:08.170-08:002022-11-18T10:59:08.170-08:00p.s. Scott
I am having trouble subscribing with th...p.s. Scott<br />I am having trouble subscribing with the links that are presented; netvibes is blocked by Google as suspicious, and the Yahoo link does not work. Atom link just is gobblygook. Any ideas?<br />RichardRichard H.https://www.blogger.com/profile/11837604197337217284noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-5963897893969955022022-11-18T10:11:26.543-08:002022-11-18T10:11:26.543-08:00Bad behavior doesn’t develop overnight. Think of ...Bad behavior doesn’t develop overnight. Think of obesity in the US, it did not happen overnight; but slowly, if your neighbor was 10 lbs heavier, it allowed you to think you could be 10 lbs heavier, and then 20 and so on. Same with drugs, social problems, general social behavior.<br />Since going off the gold standard, it took some time for us to get used to just printing money to solve our Richard H.https://www.blogger.com/profile/11837604197337217284noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-21317303752259257372022-11-18T04:15:42.851-08:002022-11-18T04:15:42.851-08:00Of course this assumption presupposes that the Fed...Of course this assumption presupposes that the Fed will do the right thing. And when was the last time the Fed got the timing of rate changes correct?stevehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07387986994469835875noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-20220657123856900572022-11-17T15:23:07.798-08:002022-11-17T15:23:07.798-08:00My take on the recession scenario: First, despite ...My take on the recession scenario: First, despite small negative growth numbers in the first two quarters of this year, I don't think it reached the magnitude of a recession. A recession almost by definition requires negative industrial production and significant job losses. Instead, industrial production was strong and job gains were strong.<br /><br />As for next year, the risk of a Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-18318467432612833902022-11-17T10:29:48.988-08:002022-11-17T10:29:48.988-08:00Thanks for your comments, and what's your take...Thanks for your comments, and what's your take on recession scenario?Adamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00325788638301535314noreply@blogger.com