tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post7550069194969832317..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Unemployment claims down by one thirdScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger12125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-3147993155142101702009-12-05T03:39:56.414-08:002009-12-05T03:39:56.414-08:00no question about this. but in many if not most ca...no question about this. but in many if not most cases that is still second derivative storyИгры рынкаhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12001273098690387194noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-62173750587360705552009-12-04T16:42:39.653-08:002009-12-04T16:42:39.653-08:00But back in July unemployment claims were almost 6...But back in July unemployment claims were almost 600,000 per week, compared to less than 500,00 per week now. Also, commodity prices were lower, credit spreads were higher, shipping rates were lower, etc. Lots of things have improved since then, not just jobs.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-87544733900809102252009-12-04T16:09:43.718-08:002009-12-04T16:09:43.718-08:00It appears to be so. But remember that in July une...It appears to be so. But remember that in July unemployment also went down compared to June. Then we were talking about 9.4%. Three months later we were almost one percentage point higherИгры рынкаhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12001273098690387194noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-76646479989140912162009-12-04T13:32:50.521-08:002009-12-04T13:32:50.521-08:00On the margin, the changes we are seeing are very ...On the margin, the changes we are seeing are very positive. That's the most important thing to me.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-18943174371922470642009-12-04T13:26:59.421-08:002009-12-04T13:26:59.421-08:00sure. But we are not there yet. This is just noise...sure. But we are not there yet. This is just noise. Nothing has really changed in the economy and people are still loosing jobs whereas economy should gain 100k+ in order to have stable employment. However "slower" it is, it is still getting worse. Especially given that one point means no trend.Игры рынкаhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12001273098690387194noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-10912378701128338012009-12-04T12:38:04.631-08:002009-12-04T12:38:04.631-08:00Well, the improvement has to start somewhere, does...Well, the improvement has to start somewhere, doesn't it? If jobs start growing for whatever reason, that soon becomes a virtuous cycle.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-5498050948895152192009-12-04T12:16:37.786-08:002009-12-04T12:16:37.786-08:00Scott said:
AFter today's number, your questi...Scott said:<br /><br /><i>AFter today's number, your question is moot. There is genuine improvement taking place in the labor market.</i><br /><br />I suppose that's true if you are a woman working a payroll job in professional/business services, health/education services or government. 190K of the 227K newly employed in the household survey were women and those three categories were theRickhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07767085539237536998noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-52458159668228670492009-12-04T10:16:27.903-08:002009-12-04T10:16:27.903-08:00This market is still losing jobs (to the tune of 5...This market is still losing jobs (to the tune of 52k a month) and stimulus is running out. Yes, situation is getting better. No, companies do not hire people on the net basis.<br /><br />Todays unemployment rate is noise as it often is. People without jobs do not spend. Unemployment rate is relevant only for FED models and not real economy.Игры рынкаhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12001273098690387194noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-83108335711204558272009-12-04T09:34:01.203-08:002009-12-04T09:34:01.203-08:00AFter today's number, your question is moot. T...AFter today's number, your question is moot. There is genuine improvement taking place in the labor market.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-16729321416983186422009-12-04T05:27:37.079-08:002009-12-04T05:27:37.079-08:00Scott, do the two four day weeks in the past three...Scott, do the two four day weeks in the past three weeks have any impact on these numbers? Or are the numbers adjusted for Veteran's Day and Thanksgiving?Rickhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07767085539237536998noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-73267008319658574362009-12-04T01:06:04.815-08:002009-12-04T01:06:04.815-08:00with official (atm) rate of 17.5% there are not so...with official (atm) rate of 17.5% there are not so many people left to be fired. or should we factor in a work-force adjustment on top of SA?Игры рынкаhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12001273098690387194noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-24118585526489025212009-12-03T08:56:40.730-08:002009-12-03T08:56:40.730-08:00There is a particular shape to nonseasonally adjus...There is a particular shape to nonseasonally adjusted jobless claims after the middle of the year when you use a 12 week moving average the shape of the moving average this year is decidedly bullish for continued favorable <br />jobless claims numbers.broderohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12296214283216386700noreply@blogger.com