tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post7545628675792406730..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Last week's increase in claims is not significantScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger18125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-82799791444516412842012-04-15T06:07:32.351-07:002012-04-15T06:07:32.351-07:00By my amateur calculation there is at least 2 tril...By my amateur calculation there is at least 2 trillion dollars sitting in <br />savings deposits because they are scared....broderohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17510948491117506660noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-69246633628546057132012-04-13T13:05:17.886-07:002012-04-13T13:05:17.886-07:00Great explanation, thanks Scott !Great explanation, thanks Scott !Robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16062180895899998738noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-37882366715811886882012-04-13T12:16:53.439-07:002012-04-13T12:16:53.439-07:00I'm not a perpetual Pollyana, but some readers...I'm not a perpetual Pollyana, but some readers seem to think so. Ever since early 2009 I have been forecasting a sub-par recovery (3-4% real growth), when a normal recovery would have been 5-6% real growth. I've talked repeatedly about all the headwinds (problems) that the economy faces, as the reason for sub-par growth: ultra-accommodative monetary policy and misguided Keynesian fiscal Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-65786022821104596632012-04-13T11:41:51.468-07:002012-04-13T11:41:51.468-07:00Scott, please write a post addressing the criticis...Scott, please write a post addressing the criticisms that u are a perpetual Pollyana. Talk about what it would take for you to become pessimistic about the economy. Thanks.Robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16062180895899998738noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-57086168283380407922012-04-13T08:25:19.907-07:002012-04-13T08:25:19.907-07:00Europe’s Capital Flight Betrays Currency’s Fragili...<b>Europe’s Capital Flight Betrays Currency’s Fragility</b><br /><br />"The flows are tough to quantify, but they can be estimated by parsing the balance sheets of euro-area central banks. When money moves from one country to another, the central bank of the receiving sovereign must lend an offsetting amount to its counterpart in the source country -- a mechanism that keeps the currency Williamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04418491109912775561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-46974215449881670422012-04-12T22:24:36.096-07:002012-04-12T22:24:36.096-07:00I bought the dip.I bought the dip.Squirehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14088030568579672500noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-76509518562368952012012-04-12T21:25:28.119-07:002012-04-12T21:25:28.119-07:00You know, Bernanke went to Japan on an advisory mi...You know, Bernanke went to Japan on an advisory mission before he became Fed chief. What we didn’t know is that it was to receive advice, not dispense it.<br /><br />Let’s see: The TIPS market is predicting the lowest inflation since the Great Depression, and we are about 13 percent below trend GDP and about one out of every 20 Americans has left the labor force and not come back.<br /><br />The Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-92133116404532617852012-04-12T17:32:27.345-07:002012-04-12T17:32:27.345-07:00scottmba09 said...
"This blog provides an int...<b>scottmba09</b> said...<br />"This blog provides an interesting perspective. <i>What sucks are the constant negative clingers-on that comment with the same garbage every day.</i> I get it, the world is going to hell."<br /><br />I think the techy term for it is "hi-jacking" a Blog. They must be bored at their day jobs.Williamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04418491109912775561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-33022697368806929852012-04-12T17:09:15.591-07:002012-04-12T17:09:15.591-07:00This blog provides an interesting perspective. Wha...This blog provides an interesting perspective. What sucks are the constant negative clingers-on that comment with the same garbage every day. I get it, the world is going to hell.scottmba09https://www.blogger.com/profile/09332253363925543023noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-82328066367010779342012-04-12T16:32:44.957-07:002012-04-12T16:32:44.957-07:00Here is a FRED chart to warm Grannis' heart:
...Here is a FRED chart to warm Grannis' heart:<br /><br />http://www.themoneyillusion.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/nominalG.png<br /><br />Hard as it is to believe, for the first ever, federal government outlays are down y-o-y, in nominal terms.Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-78291703396625756002012-04-12T12:22:22.384-07:002012-04-12T12:22:22.384-07:00PS: According the the BLS, real average hourly ear...PS: According the the BLS, real average hourly earnings for all employees fell 0.3 percent from January 2012 to February 2012 (seasonally adjusted). More at:<br /><br />http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/realer.pdf<br /><br />Hammering down real wages in the US would be good for profits and dividends this year.McKibbinUSAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10545798495680527622noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-24545062872748925812012-04-12T12:16:22.535-07:002012-04-12T12:16:22.535-07:00One of the indicators to keep an eye on are real w...One of the indicators to keep an eye on are real wage cuts -- many managers are being offered new jobs at half wages in the current economy given the abundance of management talent available in the US -- one way to ramp up dividends is to drive down wages by offering people opportunities to keep their jobs with deep wage cuts in the new position -- real wage cuts would be good news for earnings McKibbinUSAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10545798495680527622noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-14676459519945100502012-04-12T12:10:15.868-07:002012-04-12T12:10:15.868-07:00@Benjamin, monetary expansion is off the radar for...@Benjamin, monetary expansion is off the radar for the remainder of the decade at least -- rather, austerity has been adopted as the way forward -- in truth, both monetary expansion and austerity carry risks -- monetary inflation risks inflation -- austerity risks political instablity -- however, austerity is the order of day in the US and overseas at this point, so we might as well get on with McKibbinUSAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10545798495680527622noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-30550185991775047872012-04-12T11:59:47.721-07:002012-04-12T11:59:47.721-07:00The US as a nation has "given up" on cre...The US as a nation has "given up" on creating jobs here at home -- the reality is that US firms such as Apple and Motorola have moved their consumer manufacturing operations permanently overseas for a reason -- those who remain unemployed in the US should either emigrate overseas in seach of work, or embark on adding world-class skills to their resumes (such becoming a doctorally McKibbinUSAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10545798495680527622noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-42091018902226112162012-04-12T10:04:15.194-07:002012-04-12T10:04:15.194-07:00if they had improved, you would have crowed about ...if they had improved, you would have crowed about he downward trend; grow up.marcusbalbushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13596266889368486043noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-34804606414054459942012-04-12T09:39:51.672-07:002012-04-12T09:39:51.672-07:00Still, a lot of signals lately that the economy is...Still, a lot of signals lately that the economy is slumping again. <br /><br />We could wait until we are back into another deflationray recession, or better, we could go to QE3, sustained and serious, now.<br /><br />People said QE1 and QE2 would lead to hyperinflation.<br /><br />Instead we are below the 2 percent target (a dubious target in deep recessions anyway). <br /><br />I cannot Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-28583144583508440472012-04-12T09:37:19.778-07:002012-04-12T09:37:19.778-07:00A lot of people lately have been citing year-over-...A lot of people lately have been citing year-over-year percentage decreases in initial claims, noting that the pace of improvement has been deteriorating, which they say is a warning sign. However, last year we saw a big jump in claims at the end of April in response to supply chain disruptions due to the Japanese earthquake, so, barring some disaster in the next month, we should see the Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-54854766688403719392012-04-12T09:05:43.187-07:002012-04-12T09:05:43.187-07:00The 52 week moving average of non
seasonally adjus...The 52 week moving average of non<br />seasonally adjusted jobless claims<br />dropped 1118 to 393,233. In the fact<br />the pace of the drop continues in a faster fashion that last year. Nothing recessionary in these numbers.broderohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17510948491117506660noreply@blogger.com