tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post7384382006944938354..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Dollar update, and related thoughtsScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger13125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-17383085584493012992011-04-07T17:31:39.540-07:002011-04-07T17:31:39.540-07:00Re the "q ratio:" I have never followed ...Re the "q ratio:" I have never followed this very closely. For one, it seems to look good after the fact, but no one claims it is a good timing device for entering or exiting the market. Two, the denominator of the ratio, presumably the replacement cost of corporate assets, is estimated in rough fashion by government bureaucrats. It doesn't include the value of the labor employed byScott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-18048690441844859792011-04-07T09:18:31.275-07:002011-04-07T09:18:31.275-07:00Jeff-
I just don't believe in doomsterism.
I ...Jeff-<br />I just don't believe in doomsterism.<br /><br />I see extended bull markets ahead, globally, and for decades--like we were having before 2008 meltdown. So what I think is coming is not an exotic scenario. It is the usual scenario.<br /><br />I do fear financial bombs, ala Long-Term Capital Management, AIG, Lehman Bros, etc. <br /><br />I am alarmed when I read that LTCM had $5 Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-49778533145373845882011-04-07T07:14:22.952-07:002011-04-07T07:14:22.952-07:00I meant to say:
"BTW, I think there is a dire...I meant to say:<br />"BTW, I think there is a direct negative correlation between the amount of COLOR in a currency and it's value!Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04068805988034886750noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-2753219686595542011-04-07T06:19:46.417-07:002011-04-07T06:19:46.417-07:00Right now Washington is arguing (and may shut down...Right now Washington is arguing (and may shut down the government) over $30 billion. Our deficit this month was $225 billion...$1.6 trillion for the 3rd year in a row!!<br /><br />The Federal government needs to be cut in half and we are arguing about 1 day of deficits.<br /><br />Lord help us.Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04068805988034886750noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-63874015315191090492011-04-07T06:16:38.940-07:002011-04-07T06:16:38.940-07:00I'm not worried about 'the end of the worl...I'm not worried about 'the end of the world', I've read the back of the Book...I know who wins!<br /><br />But in the mean time, while exporters like Benjamin may like a tanking dollar and Dr McKibbin says just live with it, the rest of us actually are trying to PURCHASE things with what used to be green.<br /><br />BTW, I think there is a direct negative correlation between the Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04068805988034886750noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-45253070896513990192011-04-07T03:49:05.436-07:002011-04-07T03:49:05.436-07:00"Fiscal policy needs to shrink the size of go..."Fiscal policy needs to shrink the size of government by spending less and redistributing less, thereby <b> freeing up resources that can be better utilized by the private sector and creating better incentives to work and invest" </b>.<br /><br />But US history of the past 13 years suggests that the "private sector" hasn't been superb at utilizing resources: 1998 - 2000 Williamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04418491109912775561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-23352186793737481222011-04-06T13:13:25.723-07:002011-04-06T13:13:25.723-07:00The dollar reflects perfectly the state of America...The dollar reflects perfectly the state of America.<br /><br />1. We are engaged in 3 unpaid foreign wars <br /><br />2. Our central and state governments are broke <br /><br />3. Finance, Healthcare, Energy, Utilities, and Defense dominate the corporate landscape<br /><br />4. The Federal Reserve is engaged in zirp-like policy for the second time in a decade<br /><br />5. The Federal Reserve is Public Libraryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00017383928897945054noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-78216796498298543792011-04-06T12:14:29.979-07:002011-04-06T12:14:29.979-07:00Adam: the expansion in the monetary base is almost...Adam: the expansion in the monetary base is almost all due to increased bank reserves, which are not really part of the "money supply" that circulates in the economy. For measures of money supply, look at currency, M1, MZM, and M2. They all reflect relatively "normal" growth over the past few years. The expansion of the monetary base could potentially result in a huge Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-70606650387263496792011-04-06T12:09:37.252-07:002011-04-06T12:09:37.252-07:00I agree that the value of the dollar is down -- as...I agree that the value of the dollar is down -- as a matter of fact, the dollar has lost 96% of its value since the formation of the Federal Reserve in 1913 -- however, I do not agree that it is now my task to make the dollar more valuable for future generations, or even to hold its value where it is today -- rather, I would assume instead that the dollar will lose another 96% of its value duringMcKibbinUSAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10545798495680527622noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-80553333393041965082011-04-06T11:36:38.752-07:002011-04-06T11:36:38.752-07:00Thanks for the update, Scott. As for the increase ...Thanks for the update, Scott. As for the increase in the money supply, from the looks of the chart from the St. Louis Fed on the monetary base:<br /><br />http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/usfd/page3.pdf<br /><br />it looks to be balooning quickly.<br /> As an aside, I very much enjoyed your photos and commentary on Patagonia, I spend a lot of time in AR.AdamSmithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02094787578421026455noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-12594776934369633872011-04-06T11:35:36.172-07:002011-04-06T11:35:36.172-07:00Can't get enough of your stuff. Top drawer!Can't get enough of your stuff. Top drawer!TradingStrategyLetter - Weekly Summaryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06430136667577107255noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-20090118679980766622011-04-06T10:31:19.968-07:002011-04-06T10:31:19.968-07:00Scott,
This question is in regards to your Tues. p...Scott,<br />This question is in regards to your Tues. post 'Equities Are Not Overvalued.' In the WSJ on 3/30/11 on page A17 of my edition, Mark Spitznagel who is chief investment officer of Universa Investments of Santa Monica talks about the 'Q' Ratio which he describes as the aggregate stock market valuation relative to net asset replacement cost.<br /><br />He maintains that jjhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00382970468577051096noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-22741395819208424202011-04-06T10:20:15.355-07:002011-04-06T10:20:15.355-07:00Excellent charts and commentary.
That said, I gue...Excellent charts and commentary.<br /><br />That said, I guess I will never understand why some want an overvalued or "strong" dollar. It is nice when you are a tourist, it is nice if you are trying to acquire overseas assets. A US business wanting re-locate production offshore might argue for a "strong" dollar.<br /><br />But the trade-enhancing value of the dollar today is Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.com