tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post7356635770486388276..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Chart updates IIScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-21524576329612410452015-08-28T19:19:36.085-07:002015-08-28T19:19:36.085-07:00Scott Grannis and Thinking Hard---very thoughtful ...Scott Grannis and Thinking Hard---very thoughtful comments. I still think I am right, but hey let's have a beer and watch some baseball. <br />The NY Fed talks about private-sector portfolio rebalancing on their website and perhaps Scott Grannis would like to read that.<br /><br />Thinking hard: I think when the Fed rolls over on its portfolio it is more or less neutral, but I am not sure.Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-87745389876292833042015-08-28T08:45:10.314-07:002015-08-28T08:45:10.314-07:00Benjamin: you continue to misunderstand how Fed pu...Benjamin: you continue to misunderstand how Fed purchases of Treasuries works. I think the confusion comes from trying to trace the flows of money. The better way is to look at the end result:<br /><br />The public desires to increase its holdings of bank safety deposits, by depositing $50 billion in bank safety deposit accounts. <br /><br />The banking system desires to increase its holding of Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-16894643858163595392015-08-28T07:40:23.271-07:002015-08-28T07:40:23.271-07:00Benjamin - A note on QE. Does QE end if the Fed ma...Benjamin - A note on QE. Does QE end if the Fed maintains the current level seen on its balance sheet? I argue no, as long as the Fed rolls over maturing treasuries then QE has not ultimately stopped. The Fed has approx $200B in USTs maturing in 2016 and 2016 with approx $400B maturing in 2018. <br /><br />The current normalization procedures do not have the Fed selling these assets to alter the Thinking Hardhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11528747799967719972noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-15772170911745329032015-08-27T19:58:02.830-07:002015-08-27T19:58:02.830-07:00"I've argued for years that Fed policy ha..."I've argued for years that Fed policy has not been stimulative, and I maintain that position. The Fed has merely accommodated the world's intense desire for cash and cash equivalents."--Scott Grannis.<br /><br />I wonder about this. If the Fed said today, "We are going to buy $50 billion in U.S. Treasures (net) in the next month," would that be stimulative?<br /><br Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-52417467986013755402015-08-27T18:55:45.057-07:002015-08-27T18:55:45.057-07:00This comment has been removed by the author.Williamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04418491109912775561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-731035037033982432015-08-27T16:50:39.706-07:002015-08-27T16:50:39.706-07:00Great charts. Love the commercial property chart (...Great charts. Love the commercial property chart (although it tends to dispel the whole Fannie Freddie CRA Clinton caused the real estate bust story. It looks like tight money busted real estate values).<br /><br />The Bank of Japan is doing QE and the ECB is doing very modest QE. I believe the People's Bank of China is going to QE. I sure hope the Federal Reserve goes back to QE.<br /><br />Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-28548538881673976652015-08-27T08:26:50.824-07:002015-08-27T08:26:50.824-07:00How do you explain the divergence between Swaps an...How do you explain the divergence between Swaps and high yield. This appears to be an anomaly no?1leonehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18391465532808325574noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-2999555574233648092015-08-27T05:56:45.776-07:002015-08-27T05:56:45.776-07:00this is what you said: "The next two charts ...this is what you said: "The next two charts are updated versions of ones I have featured periodically. Both show that the commercial real estate and construction markets are quite strong." that's very different than what you say in the comment above. marcusbalbushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13596266889368486043noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-39496488534160066472015-08-26T20:21:07.155-07:002015-08-26T20:21:07.155-07:00I've argued for years that Fed policy has not ...I've argued for years that Fed policy has not been stimulative, and I maintain that position. The Fed has merely accommodated the world's intense desire for cash and cash equivalents. Interest rates are low because the markets have been very risk averse, investment has been weak, economic growth prospects have been weak, and inflation has been low.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-46316009374414131732015-08-26T19:48:55.559-07:002015-08-26T19:48:55.559-07:00pointing to commercial real estate as evidence of ...pointing to commercial real estate as evidence of "goldilocks" is specious. it is as sensitive to ZIRP as stock and bond prices. please. marcusbalbushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13596266889368486043noreply@blogger.com