tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post7163613905239776186..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: The Fed's absence hasn't affected mortgage ratesScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger11125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-19452882624035582672010-04-08T22:08:16.348-07:002010-04-08T22:08:16.348-07:00Jeff: my opinion on the housing market is based on...Jeff: my opinion on the housing market is based on several observations: a) several years have passed, during which the market has had ample time to adjust to new realities, b) housing construction has collapsed to levels that are far below what is needed to accommodate new family formations, thus reducing significantly the excess inventory of new homes, c) interest rates on home mortgages have Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-54839796116529106372010-04-08T15:39:30.912-07:002010-04-08T15:39:30.912-07:00Benj,
You say commodities are a 'false leadin...Benj,<br /><br />You say commodities are a 'false leading indicator' for inflation. Have you considered the possibility that rising commodity prices are a necessary prerequisite for rising inflation? And if not, what, in your view, would be? <br /><br />Not arguing, just curious.Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11652253509768573561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-89962151685629565572010-04-08T15:31:38.754-07:002010-04-08T15:31:38.754-07:00Jeff,
I have a lot of respect for Meridith Whitn...Jeff, <br /><br />I have a lot of respect for Meridith Whitney. I don't always agree with her but she is held accountable more strictly than Dr. Shiller. When she is bearish on something at least you know she has clients who are betting real money on her call even if she isn't. <br /><br />I am always interested on Scott's perspective on these things. Count me in.Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11652253509768573561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-61591029569565468982010-04-08T14:23:36.792-07:002010-04-08T14:23:36.792-07:00There goes Meredith Whitney today stating that hou...There goes Meredith Whitney today stating that housing is going to fall again. Who to believe with this? I agree that the economy is getting better (very much in line with your thinking Scott), but can't get over the fact that the government has their hand so involved with real estate (both with keeping rates low, trying to prop up pricing and slowing the rate of foreclosures onto the Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00939788327871137653noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-6730249487490044112010-04-08T12:13:50.200-07:002010-04-08T12:13:50.200-07:00Benjamin: your point about how commodities are a s...Benjamin: your point about how commodities are a smaller fraction of total spending, and thus have a smaller impact on the overall economy is reasonable. But that doesn't render commodities useless as a leading indicator of economic and monetary trends. Plus, I you continue to assume that the rise in commodity prices is mostly due to speculative activity, but I think that is a pretty bold Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-89245050626769435742010-04-08T12:06:59.500-07:002010-04-08T12:06:59.500-07:00Jeff,
So far HAMP was a failure, but it looks that...Jeff,<br />So far HAMP was a failure, but it looks that new proposals (26 of March) give a chance to diminish by a lot number of those who intends to walk away their homes.<br />It is expected to work via new rule of "earned principial forgivness".<br />If the engine starts that may be a swing factor for home market.Family Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10304538166086313103noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-32938153204680241702010-04-08T12:03:04.463-07:002010-04-08T12:03:04.463-07:00Scott-
Of course, markets can be wrong. I think ...Scott-<br /><br />Of course, markets can be wrong. I think I was wrong once, back in 1975. <br /><br />A thought: Commodities have become a smaller fraction of total spending. Therefore, commodities can shoot up, due to less elasticity of demand. <br /><br />In other words, gasoline may go to $4 a gallon, but even so, it is a smaller fraction of your outlays than in 1960. You have far more Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-34525604546681441152010-04-08T11:38:15.729-07:002010-04-08T11:38:15.729-07:00Jeff,
I realize you did not address this to me b...Jeff, <br /><br />I realize you did not address this to me but this is one of my little pet peeves. <br /><br />I am sure Dr. Schiller is a very bright man. My problem with his prognostications is that he is a tenured professor at a large university who has never (to my knowledge) had any 'skin in the game'. He feels no pain if he is wrong and suffers no consequences. When he is right heJohnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11652253509768573561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-29088678699601050862010-04-08T09:58:18.576-07:002010-04-08T09:58:18.576-07:00What is your current opinion on the housing market...What is your current opinion on the housing market. The recent week's Business Week has an ariticle by Robert Shiller. His belief is that we have a great chance of a double dip in housing pricing due to the fact the government is artificially "propping" up the market (and thus prices) and once they get out of the way we will have more correction in pricing. I just recently jumpedJeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00939788327871137653noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-35064808918330375542010-04-08T09:46:33.655-07:002010-04-08T09:46:33.655-07:00None. I have taken pains to point out repeatedly t...None. I have taken pains to point out repeatedly that the bond market shows very little if any concern about the risk of higher inflation. Inflation expectations embedded in the bond market are just about where the Fed wants them to be: 2-2.5% or so.<br /><br />But that doesn't mean there is no inflation risk. The bond market has a very poor track record over the long haul of predicting Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-3051858836337657032010-04-08T09:22:14.840-07:002010-04-08T09:22:14.840-07:00Okay I gotta say it: What inflationary expectation...Okay I gotta say it: What inflationary expectations are revealed by this chart?Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.com