tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post7053284509962007223..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Clouds and silver liningsScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger39125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-50907320290594056902018-12-18T12:32:51.010-08:002018-12-18T12:32:51.010-08:00The panic level is rising: Vix/10yr ratio now over...The panic level is rising: Vix/10yr ratio now over 9, Vix is approaching 26. Not yet at true panic levels, but we're getting there. I still don't see signs of an impending recession. We may just need to see real blood in the streets before this market is able to refocus on the fundamentals. A Fed decision tomorrow to pause would be helpful and warranted.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-72952815649294078602018-12-18T04:44:22.267-08:002018-12-18T04:44:22.267-08:00Still no spike in the VIX/10 yr ratio.
Still loo...Still no spike in the VIX/10 yr ratio. <br />Still looking for the panic selling that has coincided with other major bottoms.<br /><br />Johnny Bee Dawghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06836875640973245734noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-86252505989404666902018-12-16T00:09:31.876-08:002018-12-16T00:09:31.876-08:00Scott, could you comment please on this very alarm...Scott, could you comment please on this very alarming and pessimistic article in MarketWatch: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-investors-you-have-now-been-warned-for-the-last-time-2018-12-14<br /><br />Thanks! Robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16062180895899998738noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-45589840034469452852018-12-15T13:58:37.412-08:002018-12-15T13:58:37.412-08:00GOOD GOD MAN, PUT ASIDE THE EGO. PANGLOSS, TAKE ...GOOD GOD MAN, PUT ASIDE THE EGO. PANGLOSS, TAKE SIX MONTHS OFF. marcusbalbushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13596266889368486043noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-15696069424550582822018-12-14T12:36:09.802-08:002018-12-14T12:36:09.802-08:00These questions are meant to be in earnest. I'...These questions are meant to be in earnest. I'm open to learning but won't try to disguise my personal biases:<br /><br />Have the tax cuts paid for themselves?<br />If not, will they do so and when?<br />If they don't, and corporate taxes are returned to previous levels (or equivalent value of loopholes are closed), should we expect to see a more-or-less reverse reflection of the Charliehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04163738909524521887noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-41293136000103222902018-12-13T13:56:44.690-08:002018-12-13T13:56:44.690-08:00Re durable goods: I like to follow orders for dura...Re durable goods: I like to follow orders for durable goods ex-transportation, as well as capital goods (durable goods ex-aircraft and ex-defense). Both have been flattish in recent months, but both are up 15% or so since the November '16 elections. Both are back to their pre-Great Recession peaks, but have not really broken new high ground for the past decade. I take this as encouraging (Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-80734193637388546172018-12-13T12:09:16.850-08:002018-12-13T12:09:16.850-08:00Ada
I would suggest that if durable good consumpti...Ada<br />I would suggest that if durable good consumption<br />is a good indicator, then Durable Goods Orders <br />should be a leading indicator of durable goods consumption<br />.<br />.<br />There ARE signs of weakening in durable goods orders,<br />through October 2018 data.<br />Of course two months of data are not a long-term trend:<br />.<br />.<br /><br /> 11/21/18<br />DurableThe Cliff Claven of Financehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13541954550199246606noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-26266913785172469812018-12-13T11:39:07.372-08:002018-12-13T11:39:07.372-08:00Re above:
One of the best predictors of a recessio...Re above:<br />One of the best predictors of a recession is durable goods consumption. So, is following data series, as it leads employment series: Average Weekly Hours of Production and Nonsupervisory Employees: Durable Goods (CES3100000007). Now, no signs of weakening.Adamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00325788638301535314noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-66517658113602635852018-12-13T09:04:37.188-08:002018-12-13T09:04:37.188-08:00Hello Scott,
Worth reading this analysis.
The Lif...Hello Scott,<br /><br />Worth reading this analysis.<br />The Life Cycle of US Economic ExpansionsEdward E. Leamer<br /><br />NBER Working Paper No. 8192<br /><br />Adamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00325788638301535314noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-74706678410081689092018-12-12T09:15:13.736-08:002018-12-12T09:15:13.736-08:00Re: "If the Fed fails to raise interest rates...Re: "If the Fed fails to raise interest rates would not the market interpret that as a lack of confidence in the economy which could lead to further market correction?"<br /><br />It would depend on the Fed's rationale for not raising rates. It's my sense that there is a lot of concern out there that the Fed is predisposed to be too hawkish. <br /><br />If they cited the Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-42602477533251587172018-12-11T19:36:05.989-08:002018-12-11T19:36:05.989-08:00Good reply Marcus. I totally forgot about cliff t...Good reply Marcus. I totally forgot about cliff the anti pangloss .<br /><br />Good one!<br /><br />Missed the cliffsters doomsday replies.Alhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01261213308707778791noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-74681650097100213962018-12-11T14:28:47.059-08:002018-12-11T14:28:47.059-08:00Scott,
If the Fed fails to raise interest rates w...Scott,<br /><br />If the Fed fails to raise interest rates would not the market interpret that as a lack of confidence in the economy which could lead to further market correction?Fredhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16903149440854167071noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-30300073123102395492018-12-11T11:33:20.089-08:002018-12-11T11:33:20.089-08:00The market currently assigns a 70% probability to ...The market currently assigns a 70% probability to the Fed raising rates by 0.25% at next week's FOMC meeting. What will influence the Fed in their decision-making? Breakeven inflation is below the Fed's target, and declining on the margin. Oil prices have a lot to do with that, however (breakeven rates relate to the total CPI), so it's important to focus on core inflation. The Core Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-10364719822129493072018-12-11T10:15:57.841-08:002018-12-11T10:15:57.841-08:00Cali:
Yes, thankfully I don't think Powell is...Cali:<br /><br />Yes, thankfully I don't think Powell is part of the crew that believes this. But I know there's sympathy for this line of thinking among the governors.<br /><br />To be clear, there may well be reasons to raise rates. It's just that the reason stated in my previous post shouldn't be among them. That particular reasoning, I think, is stupid. Just stupid.<br /><Grechsterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08898953158865778397noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-70937701827342060052018-12-11T08:45:27.427-08:002018-12-11T08:45:27.427-08:00@Matthew Grech
Agreed. It's obvious logic tha...@Matthew Grech<br /><br />Agreed. It's obvious logic that you cannot freely raise rates - just because - so that you will be able to lower them when needed. <br /><br />I've watched Powell speech where he addresses this very concern and he is not in agreement (at least not then and not publicly) that raising rates "to be able to drop them" is sound policy. <br /><br />He Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-35388958079169131242018-12-11T08:43:20.095-08:002018-12-11T08:43:20.095-08:00This comment has been removed by the author.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-45499367923892224002018-12-11T08:31:31.561-08:002018-12-11T08:31:31.561-08:00Richard Fisher is the latest advocate of the we-mu...Richard Fisher is the latest advocate of the we-must-burn-the-village-to-save-the-village Fed policy. For added measure, he took a little pot shot at Neel Kashkari, one of the few to call out the inanity of such a policy.<br /><br />I know Fisher's got degrees from Harvard and Stanford. But, really, how does an educated man ask (condescendingly), after living through years of quantitative Grechsterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08898953158865778397noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-83189970945888057192018-12-11T07:40:36.802-08:002018-12-11T07:40:36.802-08:00Johnny B. Dog:
That was a classic rant
that needs...Johnny B. Dog:<br />That was a classic rant <br />that needs repeating:<br /><br />"Trump didn’t rape multiple women, lie under oath, mishandle classified info, sell uranium to Russia, keep classified material on a secret unsecured server to avoid government oversight and have it hacked by every foreign enemy on earth. <br /><br />Trump didn’t secretly sell Stinger missiles to Muslim The Cliff Claven of Financehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13541954550199246606noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-87322545842631900742018-12-11T07:23:47.019-08:002018-12-11T07:23:47.019-08:00Frozen....Nope. Paying strippers and hookers with...Frozen....Nope. Paying strippers and hookers with your own money is not illegal...during a campaign or not. Never has been.<br /><br />"Russia thing"....you mean Hillary taking tens of millions of bribes to sell US uranium to Russia? Yep..sounds treasonous.<br />As for Russia collusion with Trump campaign...there isn't a shred of evidence. If you have any, please contact MuellerJohnny Bee Dawghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06836875640973245734noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-10612605478157321862018-12-11T07:04:52.978-08:002018-12-11T07:04:52.978-08:00Interesting the FED added a 2 month treasury on Oc...Interesting the FED added a 2 month treasury on Oct 16th 2018 to the data series I use to update my yield curve watch chart.<br /><br />https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yieldAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-67538639098989773642018-12-11T06:55:23.496-08:002018-12-11T06:55:23.496-08:00JBD
1. On paying strippers and hookers in an ele...JBD<br /><br />1. On paying strippers and hookers in an election campaign --- Yeah its illegal buddy! <br /><br />2. On the Russia thing, pay attention its called treason<br /><br />Finally, the GOP will drop Trump like a hot potato when they realize that he harming their re-election prospects. Frozen in the Northhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04901959687094626879noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-48582541428373842332018-12-10T19:36:02.734-08:002018-12-10T19:36:02.734-08:00It’s not a crime to pay hush money to whores that ...It’s not a crime to pay hush money to whores that you hooked up with a decade earlier. And you can donate as much as you want to your own campaign. That’s the “payoff” case, you’re worried about. Nothing about that is illegal, and none of it has a thing to do with Russian collusion. There’s still not a shred of evidence of Russian collusion. None. Zero.<br /><br />If DEMs think paying Johnny Bee Dawghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06836875640973245734noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-6765911842822832982018-12-10T15:46:57.868-08:002018-12-10T15:46:57.868-08:00JBD: some pretty smart former federal prosecutors...JBD: some pretty smart former federal prosecutors, including those who have defended Trump on the Russian collusion issue, think Trump is in jeopardy on the payoff case. I don't think he can be indicted while still in office but perhaps impeached. I hope this does not happen but I don't think you can dismiss it out of hand. Fredhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16903149440854167071noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-32824252693985059342018-12-10T10:00:08.129-08:002018-12-10T10:00:08.129-08:00Still not a shred of evidence of any Russia collus...Still not a shred of evidence of any Russia collusion. Nothing. Nada. Zilch. Zero.<br /><br />Paying hush money to a whore is not illegal, and neither is making campaign contributions to your own campaign.<br />Lets not forget that Barack got over $2 million in discovered ILLEGAL campaign contributions, but Holder's DOJ decided not to prosecute.<br />That doesnt count the larger millions Johnny Bee Dawghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06836875640973245734noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-29533075658667989862018-12-10T06:55:44.987-08:002018-12-10T06:55:44.987-08:00Thanks for the interesting perspective.
1-Net wor...Thanks for the interesting perspective.<br /><br />1-Net worth charts assume that present levels represent fair value levels.<br />Helpful inputs to assess the validity of this assumption:<br />-real household net worth and real GDP 1952 vs 2018<br />household net worth x 10<br />GDP per capita x 3.4<br />-nominal household net worth and nominal GDP 2008-9 vs end 2018<br />household net worth x Carlhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17387971163643471225noreply@blogger.com