tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post6634497384956849371..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Another sign of a housing bottomScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-36255968141866639242010-01-19T18:48:30.076-08:002010-01-19T18:48:30.076-08:00Scott,
The Mass win was definitely a big step in ...Scott,<br /><br />The Mass win was definitely a big step in the right direction.<br /><br />But right now America has about $55 Trillion of total debt with an M2 of only about $8 Trillion. How do you think we will ever be able to service this amount of debt if about 500,000 people are applying for first time unemployment claims every week, few firms are hiring, government is slashing jobs, and alstryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16025398896639165994noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-30826204159829294122010-01-19T18:16:07.039-08:002010-01-19T18:16:07.039-08:00alstry: The stock market is not always right, to b...alstry: The stock market is not always right, to be sure. But I think if you look at the broad context of things, there is a decent chance the stock market is right this time. Many economic and financial fundamentals have improved. Equity valuations were extremely low. Housing starts have been way below the amount needed to keep pace with population growth--a situation that cannot possibly Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-61604485613314818492010-01-19T13:49:51.716-08:002010-01-19T13:49:51.716-08:00Two of its three component indexes registered one-...<i>Two of its three component indexes registered one-point declines, with the index gauging current sales conditions and the index gauging traffic of prospective buyers falling to 15 and 12, respectively. The index gauging sales expectations in the next six months held even, at 26.</i><br /><br />Scott,<br /><br />Does it really appear that things are improving on the margin from the builders'alstryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16025398896639165994noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-30639087209131312282010-01-19T12:41:03.504-08:002010-01-19T12:41:03.504-08:00BTW, John Bogle, founder of mutual fund giant Vang...BTW, John Bogle, founder of mutual fund giant Vanguard, has an editorial in today's WSJ worth reading. <br />Bogle's has some gloomy observations, but as a practical matter, it validates the point of view that "pre-herd" investing is the way to go.<br />Go before the flow, baby.Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-1221777515464735422010-01-19T11:10:48.878-08:002010-01-19T11:10:48.878-08:00Harry: yes, the current news is still awful for ho...Harry: yes, the current news is still awful for housing. But the market can be forward-looking, and that is what this chart is saying. The NAHB index is not forward-looking, and November sales are old news. The outlook for the future is getting better on the margin.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-70226799587215015322010-01-19T11:06:30.226-08:002010-01-19T11:06:30.226-08:00I can understand people being wary after the deepe...I can understand people being wary after the deepest and fastest plunge-type recession in the postwar era.<br />But, the Fat Lady is singing on this downturn. She is on stage, she has the mike in her hand, and she is demurely singing her first "soft" hits. Later, when the lights lower a bit, she will be belting them out, dancing dirty and bouncing her huge boobs up and down in the Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-92095990341297981002010-01-19T10:40:52.505-08:002010-01-19T10:40:52.505-08:00One step forward and two steps back is what comes ...One step forward and two steps back is what comes to mind with recent housing data. First November pending home sales plunged and now the National Association of Homebuilders' housing market index is slipping, at 15 in January vs. 16 in December and what now seems like a very hopeful 19 in September. The index hit a cycle low of 8 in January last year.<br /><br />Also from BloombergHarryWangerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17109748780818156613noreply@blogger.com