tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post6597025215089976836..comments2024-03-18T13:22:06.536-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Thoughts on Greece and PIIGSScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger15125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-37353784128708265572010-02-07T15:26:11.920-08:002010-02-07T15:26:11.920-08:00Hmmmmm--good point. I hope it's a tempest in a...Hmmmmm--good point. I hope it's a tempest in a teapot.<br />SteveSteve Fultonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17201413605319579983noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-79811943743552750802010-02-07T10:11:44.381-08:002010-02-07T10:11:44.381-08:00Steve: your numbers look right, but a Greek defaul...Steve: your numbers look right, but a Greek default would not likely result in a 100% loss on all Greek government debt, would it? Not even Argentina got away with a 100% default--I think they finally negotiated something like a 60-70% writedown. I imagine that a Greek government default might end up shaving 20% or so off the face value of the debt. A loss of $80 or even $100 billion is not Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-30872977243084121102010-02-07T06:45:08.789-08:002010-02-07T06:45:08.789-08:00Scott--
I guess my concern is based on the 2 follo...Scott--<br />I guess my concern is based on the 2 following thoughts. <br />1. Any realistic attempt to change Greece's tax/spend foolishness can be simply voted out by entrenched interests who may see a return to the Drachma as preferable to either self imposed or EU imposed restraint.<br />2. I could have these numbers wrong -but I thought Greece's debt was 100% or so of GDP or about $Steve Fultonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17201413605319579983noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-13680905797432079672010-02-06T05:55:54.257-08:002010-02-06T05:55:54.257-08:00septizoniom,
Rather than just name calling, could...septizoniom,<br /><br />Rather than just name calling, could you please enlighten us on the "larger picture"? <br /><br />This is a forum of ideas and Scott has shown that he is open to differing viewpoints. What is yours?<br /><br />BobBobhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18190525712352815677noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-29964041093614512422010-02-05T13:52:15.151-08:002010-02-05T13:52:15.151-08:00One final thought....
Greece's GDP is the si...One final thought....<br /><br /> Greece's GDP is the size of Connecticut's,,,,broderohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12296214283216386700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-10010686839257867262010-02-05T10:56:17.804-08:002010-02-05T10:56:17.804-08:00instant: The private sector can do wonders to rest...instant: The private sector can do wonders to restore this economy to health. If the government stepped out of the way and stopped borrowing trillions of dollars, and also cut taxes, there would be gobs of money available to new startups. The private sector is the only true source of jobs. We have to let it work. Instead, we are smothering the private sector in the belief that government knows Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-75958814090317138472010-02-05T10:00:20.391-08:002010-02-05T10:00:20.391-08:00Donny you are right, but alas the problem we PIIGS...Donny you are right, but alas the problem we PIIGS face (I mean, except my Irish friends maybe) is that we just don't know what Tea parties are. Unfortunately, I guess.<br /><br />Cheers.Vespasianushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08430697851208423321noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-24193217094484324962010-02-05T07:15:33.026-08:002010-02-05T07:15:33.026-08:00Government employees in Greece have called a stike...Government employees in Greece have called a stike to protest the pay freeze that is part of the deficit reduction plan. this is why politicians can't just cut spending because the vested interests raise a ruckus. Only when the broader population is against the entrenched interests of government employees and can give the politicians the courage to buck them will something get done to reignDonny Baseballhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08040288585224426073noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-64874397683413392122010-02-05T04:45:42.384-08:002010-02-05T04:45:42.384-08:00First of all you are NOT an idiot
that a gentleman...First of all you are NOT an idiot<br />that a gentleman called you earlier....anyway....the use of Debt to GDP as I have talked about earlier is an important metric but<br />if it is the only one talked about<br />then the analysis is incomplete.A<br />metric i use in addition and an equally important one is Household<br />debt service +Government debt service -Annual personal savings divided by broderohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12296214283216386700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-8182730189509716052010-02-04T23:28:55.619-08:002010-02-04T23:28:55.619-08:00I agree with Scott. I also have a different reaso...I agree with Scott. I also have a different reason for my comfort with the Greece situation.<br /><br />One lesson all central bankers have learned at the end of 2008 is the world cannot afford another Lehman. It is abundantly clear the total cost of mopping up an uncontrolled collapse is an order of magnitude more costly than preventing it. This is true even if people have to hold their noses狂猪https://www.blogger.com/profile/16599529315620633684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-12284180198464981072010-02-04T22:25:58.646-08:002010-02-04T22:25:58.646-08:00"watch the private sector take off"
My ..."watch the private sector take off"<br /><br />My question is : what private sector can do to restore the economy. At the moment, they are not exporting anything. The manufacturing sectors have gone a long time ago. Tourism? The whole world is on fire. Who has the money and mood for holiday.<br /><br />Although private companies are more efficient than governments. If the wages Instanthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15137220003800210603noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-76453054757957515142010-02-04T19:39:36.694-08:002010-02-04T19:39:36.694-08:00i'm sorry mr grannis. you are incabable of see...i'm sorry mr grannis. you are incabable of seeing the larger picture, and thus you are an idiot. optimism is not a panacea.septizoniomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14253705209662419429noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-64890555018560081652010-02-04T17:29:30.815-08:002010-02-04T17:29:30.815-08:00Jake: you are right, but the question that begs is...Jake: you are right, but the question that begs is this: is this a serious threat to the global economy? Note that a spread of 400 bps or so implies a fairly small probability of default over the next 5 years. And even if Greece were to default, then what? Argentina defaulted on over $100 billion and world financial markets barely trembled. Greece owes much less.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-18162298920370091082010-02-04T15:53:01.715-08:002010-02-04T15:53:01.715-08:00Mr. Grannis:
Agree with your analysis.
Regardin...Mr. Grannis:<br /><br />Agree with your analysis. <br /><br />Regarding Greece and their socialist government and their propensity to tax and spend and the consequential debt problem, the common thread error of Marist economics becomes apparent: they do not see that the mere existence of government is dependent on transfer payments from the private sector. <br /><br />Marxists seeing the transferW.E. Heasleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00368333904571061995noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-89872439590252259012010-02-04T15:50:16.258-08:002010-02-04T15:50:16.258-08:00the fact that you can even compare the chances of ...the fact that you can even compare the chances of default of a european country that is in the EU and a junk bond is extraordinary and the reason why risk assets are pricing downJakehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07946497592651234440noreply@blogger.com