tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post6473463767448439986..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Closing the Obama GapScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger20125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-23262148777598297312016-12-04T11:19:00.906-08:002016-12-04T11:19:00.906-08:00ego: Thanks for the comment. You remind me that we...ego: Thanks for the comment. You remind me that we owe David Gordon a huge debt of gratitude for bringing us and keeping us together for so many years. It's unquestionably the case that there is more "free stuff" out there with the internet than we've ever had before, and the value of that free stuff is probably not captured in the GDP stats. But can it explain all of the huge Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-73404249184473436272016-12-03T11:49:34.295-08:002016-12-03T11:49:34.295-08:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.The Cliff Claven of Financehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13541954550199246606noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-63292471408242862502016-12-03T11:48:19.122-08:002016-12-03T11:48:19.122-08:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.The Cliff Claven of Financehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13541954550199246606noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-46716194347727536442016-12-03T11:46:57.116-08:002016-12-03T11:46:57.116-08:00Mr. Grannis wrote:
"GDP growth: for seven and...Mr. Grannis wrote:<br />"GDP growth: for seven and one quarter years, from the end of December 1982 through the end of march 1990, real GDP growth posted an annualized rate of growth of 4.5%. Robert Bartley wrote a book about this: "The Seven Fat Years." "<br /><br /><br />The Cliff Claven of Finance responds:<br /><br />- The July 1981 Recession officially ended November 1982The Cliff Claven of Financehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13541954550199246606noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-31230821142665790742016-12-03T06:26:03.232-08:002016-12-03T06:26:03.232-08:00"... and productivity has been miserable ...&..."... and productivity has been miserable ..."<br />Scott: This we are told by statisticians all over the western world and we feel some sort of uneasyness when we read these statements. Is that true? Really? This made me look for this topic and I found a hint for the picture behind this problem at very tiny Swiss website from a tiny St. Gallen think tank: http://www.m1ag.ch.<br /> <br /egphttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09006649426681539470noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-38224413903994103092016-11-30T11:02:15.257-08:002016-11-30T11:02:15.257-08:00Frozen: What happens to non-discretionary spending...Frozen: What happens to non-discretionary spending is going to be critical, no question. I'm hopeful that the Republican Congress is going to deliver at least something in the way of entitlement reform, but I'll admit they have racked up a lousy record in that regard over the past decade. If we don't get some entitlement reform in the next few years it is going to be very Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-63409552878680342252016-11-30T10:52:44.147-08:002016-11-30T10:52:44.147-08:00Mike: I appreciate your comment, and I agree that ...Mike: I appreciate your comment, and I agree that ideas are extremely important. But policies are also extremely important, and sometimes there are people who manage to implement ideas that result in sweeping changes in policies. Obama was one of those people, and just about everything he did was wrong. I hated Bill Clinton as a person, but I recognized that the policies he ended up adopting wereScott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-42067585266485827832016-11-30T09:00:45.163-08:002016-11-30T09:00:45.163-08:00Re GDP growth: for seven and one quarter years, fr...Re GDP growth: for seven and one quarter years, from the end of December 1982 through the end of march 1990, real GDP growth posted an annualized rate of growth of 4.5%. Robert Bartley wrote a book about this: "The Seven Fat Years."Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-20205607452231367042016-11-30T08:41:09.759-08:002016-11-30T08:41:09.759-08:00Now that a Republican is in the WH I am sure that ...Now that a Republican is in the WH I am sure that the government taps will re-open. Budget concerns only occur when the WH occupant is a Democrat, the missing GDP pie has been government spending, which has been on a downward spiral for virtually the entire Obama administration (which is correct).<br /><br />The end of Obamacare is certain to lead to much higher medical costs in the US -- that&#Frozen in the Northhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04901959687094626879noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-14300420953394328912016-11-30T06:24:21.714-08:002016-11-30T06:24:21.714-08:00"Great minds discuss ideas; average minds dis..."Great minds discuss ideas; average minds discuss events; small minds discuss people."<br /><br />Scott- <br />As an investor, I tend to do my research "bottom-up" and limit my macro reading to a few carefully selected voices, including yours. I've been impressed at how you've limited your discussion to ideas and events. Why lower your standards now?<br /><br />The misterkrustyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01593047361808728232noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-64802991510342669442016-11-29T16:18:13.570-08:002016-11-29T16:18:13.570-08:00Trump is the most interesting player on the US pol...Trump is the most interesting player on the US political scene in decades and decades.<br /><br />Remember, the GOP-Fox-National Review-neocon crowd tried to gut Trump before the Donks tried. <br /><br />My guess is Trump will be a low-brow version of Reagan, and for the economy that will be roughly good.<br /><br />Forgotten today is that the Reaganauts were protectionists, ran big deficits and Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-49893684773238294352016-11-29T16:15:56.802-08:002016-11-29T16:15:56.802-08:00Trump is the most interesting player on the US pol...Trump is the most interesting player on the US political scene in decades and decades.<br /><br />Remember, the GOP-Fox-National Review-neocon crowd tried to gut Trump before the Donks tried. <br /><br />My guess is Trump will be a low-brow version of Reagan, and for the economy that will be roughly good.<br /><br />Forgotten today is that the Reaganauts were protectionists, ran big deficits and Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-13582252506067207802016-11-29T14:41:46.027-08:002016-11-29T14:41:46.027-08:00Cliff: you are correct that industrial production ...Cliff: you are correct that industrial production is at all-time highs, even though industrial employment has been declining for decades. We are exporting lots of stuff. Unfortunately international trade is Trump's major weakness. That's why I'm encouraged that he has people like David Malpass and Steve Moore advising him on economic policy, because they understand how things work. <Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-53304316541805773162016-11-29T14:40:36.348-08:002016-11-29T14:40:36.348-08:00I vow to be among the first to condemn any stupid ...I vow to be among the first to condemn any stupid policy that the Trump administration tries to pass. As the Cato Institute always says, I am an equal-opportunity critic of both Republican and Democratic parties. Both parties can claim the honor of doing very good and very stupid things. I'm looking and hoping for more good things than stupid things from Trump. I hope I'm not wrong.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-62503750255809253262016-11-29T14:26:46.071-08:002016-11-29T14:26:46.071-08:00Cliff: If Trump does all the things you worry he m...Cliff: If Trump does all the things you worry he might do, then I would agree we're in for a world of hurt. But I'm one of those who think that what he says is not to be taken literally. I note that Congress is controlled by conservatives who have received a mandate to shape up, not squander resources. <br /><br />The infrastructure spending Trump has talked about will not necessarily be Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-16875067269920784782016-11-29T14:13:34.671-08:002016-11-29T14:13:34.671-08:00If borrowing and spending is the road to prosperit...If borrowing and spending is the road to prosperity, then Trump is just what we need.<br /><br />But I don't believe that's true.<br /><br />He has no plan to control baby boomer entitlement and government pension spending.<br /><br />Wants to expand the military.<br /><br />Wants $1 trillion infrastructure spending.<br /><br />I don't recall any promised spending cuts except the The Cliff Claven of Financehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13541954550199246606noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-17279149723916101672016-11-29T14:13:31.866-08:002016-11-29T14:13:31.866-08:00If borrowing and spending is the road to prosperit...If borrowing and spending is the road to prosperity, then Trump is just what we need.<br /><br />But I don't believe that's true.<br /><br />He has no plan to control baby boomer entitlement and government pension spending.<br /><br />Wants to expand the military.<br /><br />Wants $1 trillion infrastructure spending.<br /><br />I don't recall any promised spending cuts except the The Cliff Claven of Financehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13541954550199246606noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-12137969198383580342016-11-29T14:13:12.242-08:002016-11-29T14:13:12.242-08:00If borrowing and spending is the road to prosperit...If borrowing and spending is the road to prosperity, then Trump is just what we need.<br /><br />But I don't believe that's true.<br /><br />He has no plan to control baby boomer entitlement and government pension spending.<br /><br />Wants to expand the military.<br /><br />Wants $1 trillion infrastructure spending.<br /><br />I don't recall any promised spending cuts except the The Cliff Claven of Financehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13541954550199246606noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-71471302314496997562016-11-29T13:58:57.045-08:002016-11-29T13:58:57.045-08:00It remains to be seen, of course, whether Trump wi...It remains to be seen, of course, whether Trump will make the right moves. I'm hopeful that he has enough good people on his staff to keep him from choosing misguided policies, such as those that would lead to a reduction in international trade. But only time will tell. Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-92043271282410326492016-11-29T13:55:49.726-08:002016-11-29T13:55:49.726-08:00Mr. Grannis, President Elect Trump needs you on hi...Mr. Grannis, President Elect Trump needs you on his economic staff. Well done. AUGUSThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05305062943467175443noreply@blogger.com