tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post6305408990439567508..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Commodities say the Fed is pretty tight alreadyScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger23125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-9116506776600928782022-09-14T10:51:37.964-07:002022-09-14T10:51:37.964-07:00PPI, my favorite price indicator, is definitely sh...PPI, my favorite price indicator, is definitely showing disinflation (since ~ April). The CPI and PCE will show stickier inflation due to shelter (owners equivalent rent).<br /><br />My indicators are still moderately bearish on the stock, REIT and bond markets; still bullish on commodities (barely).<br /><br />The "ability" for the Fed to even "control" the economy with wkevinwhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17600473578823788550noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-85934978980805987152022-09-14T05:16:48.072-07:002022-09-14T05:16:48.072-07:00Markets plunge, Kashkari titillates, Corporate Lan...Markets plunge, Kashkari titillates, Corporate Landlords wail! <br /><br />(Film @ 11)Chris_in_NJhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01882159035633041622noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-64540802868219332222022-09-13T01:49:55.557-07:002022-09-13T01:49:55.557-07:00FAST MONEY
Inflation ‘collapse’ will launch powerf...FAST MONEY<br />Inflation ‘collapse’ will launch powerful market rally, Credit Suisse predicts<br />PUBLISHED MON, SEP 12 20227:46 PM EDTUPDATED 3 HOURS AGO---CNBC<br /><br />Well, who knows? But it is nice to read something positive every once in a while....Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-21561402115998181842022-09-11T13:39:16.756-07:002022-09-11T13:39:16.756-07:00This comment has been removed by the author.Carlhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01792779708580094262noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-20915261374660976492022-09-11T13:38:55.165-07:002022-09-11T13:38:55.165-07:00This comment has been removed by the author.Carlhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01792779708580094262noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-19440510897155750982022-09-11T13:38:35.003-07:002022-09-11T13:38:35.003-07:00This comment has been removed by the author.Carlhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01792779708580094262noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-45681715161472245732022-09-11T13:35:07.640-07:002022-09-11T13:35:07.640-07:00^Money velocity (+ or - adjusted for excess reserv...^Money velocity (+ or - adjusted for excess reserves) has been coming down for more than 20 years. Why?<br />Since Q1 2020 to now, money velocity, on a net basis, is at about the same level, despite unprecedented fiscal and monetary easing. Why?Carlhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01792779708580094262noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-25886039310738216932022-09-11T10:46:51.627-07:002022-09-11T10:46:51.627-07:00Great graph Carl. Obviously, the demand for money...Great graph Carl. Obviously, the demand for money increased. But also, obviously, Vt increased based on the distributed lag effect of money flows. Salmo Truttahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13910212017849902362noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-64851384345658477142022-09-10T13:47:24.543-07:002022-09-10T13:47:24.543-07:00I enjoy reading your blog. With quantitative tigh...I enjoy reading your blog. With quantitative tightening, any thoughts on where the 10 year treasury is going to be in a few years? Will QT continue until Fed balance sheet looks like the "good old days?" Or, will the long rate just follow inflation? Might there be some broader reset of all rates going forward due to historically high reserves exiting banking system?JC from MNhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16401108496552915708noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-30128840754068370962022-09-09T08:13:01.425-07:002022-09-09T08:13:01.425-07:00"this inflation isn't being slowed by a d..."this inflation isn't being slowed by a decline in money velocity..."<br />Historically, recession conditions (often preluded by some kind of tightening, correlated?) have been associated with declines in money velocity. It makes sense as deleveraging occurs, debt and money are retired, but economic activity declines even more, driving velocity down. Irving Fisher eventually figuredCarlhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01792779708580094262noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-74540569036062857692022-09-06T08:43:30.511-07:002022-09-06T08:43:30.511-07:00Unlike Volker's inflation, this inflation isn&...Unlike Volker's inflation, this inflation isn't being slowed by a decline in money velocity, or an increase in the demand for money.<br />el85-23.pdf (frbsf.org)<br />Salmo Truttahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13910212017849902362noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-55952355326765661782022-09-06T05:57:42.986-07:002022-09-06T05:57:42.986-07:00The contraction of long-term monetary flows, the v...The contraction of long-term monetary flows, the volume and velocity of money, is at the expense of short-term money flows (the distributed lag effects), the proxy for real output. So, normally this produces a recession. But the data so far this time doesn't support that to happen. There is just too much money in the economy.Salmo Truttahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13910212017849902362noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-24652960902112005782022-09-05T18:08:02.413-07:002022-09-05T18:08:02.413-07:00Amazing how few people feared inflation last year ...Amazing how few people feared inflation last year but now scream that inflation is not going away unless the Fed tightens excessively. Inflation is not yet under control but it is headed down and the process will probably take another 12 to 18 months to reach a level that is acceptable but the Fed should quit raising rates by the end of the year.CGW Villa Hillshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08383012975495285267noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-31179256766960782592022-09-05T06:56:29.118-07:002022-09-05T06:56:29.118-07:00Long chill weekend with fresh Calafia charts to re...Long chill weekend with fresh Calafia charts to reflect on & full fridge of Cape May Coastal Evacuation... summer storms due in later today ... perfecto. Happy Labor Day!Chris_in_NJhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01882159035633041622noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-45792444835313499802022-09-03T07:13:45.181-07:002022-09-03T07:13:45.181-07:00The gap between gdi and gdp has been 3.5% larger t...The gap between gdi and gdp has been 3.5% larger than its gdp in 2022. N-gDp is still running too high. The FED needs to drain the money stock and simultaneously increase the velocity of circulation (the 1966 Interest Rate Adjustment Act).Salmo Truttahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13910212017849902362noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-37603073171137467782022-09-02T06:14:49.818-07:002022-09-02T06:14:49.818-07:00Williams: ""We're going to need to h...Williams: ""We're going to need to have restrictive policy for some time."Salmo Truttahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13910212017849902362noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-57636996286966403212022-09-02T05:40:32.023-07:002022-09-02T05:40:32.023-07:00“On the liability side of the Fed’s balance sheet,...“On the liability side of the Fed’s balance sheet, the decrease may stem from either a reduction of reserves held by banks or a reduction in ON RRP take-up or a combination of both”<br />See: The Fed’s Balance Sheet Runoff and the ON RRP Facility – Liberty Street Economics (newyorkfed.org)Salmo Truttahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13910212017849902362noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-31353859462005837672022-09-01T08:38:41.208-07:002022-09-01T08:38:41.208-07:00Re spread between jumbo and conventional rates: th...Re spread between jumbo and conventional rates: the chart does include both throughout, but the spread is now so small that you can't see conventional rates (which on the chart are behind jumbo rates). Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-14646723172837174672022-09-01T06:40:08.332-07:002022-09-01T06:40:08.332-07:00I think Scott Grannis is right. The FED is alread...I think Scott Grannis is right. The FED is already tight. They just need to stay the course.Salmo Truttahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13910212017849902362noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-15139000542558972402022-09-01T05:11:51.277-07:002022-09-01T05:11:51.277-07:00You know, if you restrict supply of housing and oi...You know, if you restrict supply of housing and oil...you might find higher prices. <br /><br />If government regulations start to restrict the supply of everything...<br /><br />Sure, monetary policy plays a role. But try building housing almost anywhere along the West Coast....<br /><br />BTW, I think Scott Grannis is right. Inflation is downtrending already. The Fed and ECB just need to stand Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-79842301812342769982022-09-01T00:50:56.484-07:002022-09-01T00:50:56.484-07:00Good post but disagree. Financial markets are rife...Good post but disagree. Financial markets are rife with speculation, commodity prices are still WAY too high, and housing is WAY over-valued. We need a recession and crash in commodities and housing on a 2008 level to bring some normalcy back to things. If people lose their homes they should learn not to buy at such stupidly high levels.JPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03784673189890828459noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-73505710333352926792022-08-31T21:23:39.218-07:002022-08-31T21:23:39.218-07:00I notice chart 8 doesn't continue with convent...I notice chart 8 doesn't continue with conventional rates past 2020. curious what the spread is now between jumbo and conventional. in 2/2022, jumbo had been lower...Christian S. Herzeca, Esq.https://www.blogger.com/profile/09913237226503475709noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-5687788586712112812022-08-31T20:56:17.569-07:002022-08-31T20:56:17.569-07:00Scott thank you for the post. I don’t remember any...Scott thank you for the post. I don’t remember any positive outcome from Powell speeches. He seems this kind of personality. ebg investorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14513889673146997967noreply@blogger.com