tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post6285707085810436031..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Australian dollar updateScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-64877624966257405242010-04-07T09:30:06.763-07:002010-04-07T09:30:06.763-07:00Hi again Scott. I'm sorry to bug you again abo...Hi again Scott. I'm sorry to bug you again about Cable, but I'd be ever so grateful if you could answer 2 more questions please:<br /><br />1. When you calculated £-$ at 1.43 do you feel confident about your methodology?<br /><br />2. Since £ has been having a bit of a rally last 2 weeks, some chartists see a bullish signal. Do you set much store by such things?<br /><br />I'll Robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16062180895899998738noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-18356535571480160802010-02-19T06:57:25.376-08:002010-02-19T06:57:25.376-08:00Many thanks again Scott, your insights are really ...Many thanks again Scott, your insights are really valuable. I have decided to hedge some of my exposure to £ by s/betting on Cable.Robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16062180895899998738noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-55675575671267413272010-02-18T18:46:30.820-08:002010-02-18T18:46:30.820-08:00Rob: I'm not one who believes that government ...Rob: I'm not one who believes that government finances, especially in a major industrialized economy, are the primary driver or even a significant driver of inflation or exchange rates. <br /><br />The £ is vulnerable if UK monetary policy stays too easy for too long and UK inflation rises significantly as a result, and/or if the UK economy underperforms other major economies. <br /><br />Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-90352332774227361892010-02-18T16:22:05.453-08:002010-02-18T16:22:05.453-08:00Scott, sorry to harp on about the £ but after toda...Scott, sorry to harp on about the £ but after today's news re. the UK's appalling public finances I am pretty desperate to know how vulnerable the £ is re. other currencies and esp. the $ .. As I write it is in another freefall period. Do you have any more views on it, eg do you see it going below 1.50 in the near future ? Many thanks for your help Scott.Robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16062180895899998738noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-18362802537025238192010-02-03T09:05:17.826-08:002010-02-03T09:05:17.826-08:00The reason I keep asking about Sterling, Scott, is...The reason I keep asking about Sterling, Scott, is that I keep coming across this sort of thing:<br /><br />"Bill Gross, an astute American who runs the $200bn Pimco Total Return fund, that the UK is a must to avoid, with high debt levels and a finance-oriented economy. Reported by Citywire, he says our government securities, he says, are resting on a bed of nitroglycerine. High debt with Robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16062180895899998738noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-25340485568202697642010-01-30T12:33:40.487-08:002010-01-30T12:33:40.487-08:00Well that's still very helpful Scott, many tha...Well that's still very helpful Scott, many thanks !Robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16062180895899998738noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-64574585085836906022010-01-30T11:48:44.896-08:002010-01-30T11:48:44.896-08:00I'm having trouble coming up with a decent opi...I'm having trouble coming up with a decent opinion on sterling. According to my PPP calculations, sterling is about 12% overvalued relative to its PPP vis a vis the dollar. That's not much to get excited about. I do note that UK inflation has been higher than US inflation for a very long time, and that looks to be continuing. That would give one a bias to being short sterling, but again IScott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-55433414096170460032010-01-30T11:32:15.472-08:002010-01-30T11:32:15.472-08:00Hi Scott, I'd love to get your thoughts on the...Hi Scott, I'd love to get your thoughts on the UK £ ..Robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16062180895899998738noreply@blogger.com