tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post627653371100664784..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Quantifying the pandemic panicScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger27125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-65997310001026007072020-03-01T09:21:44.134-08:002020-03-01T09:21:44.134-08:00I highly recommend a recent article by Clarice Fel...I highly recommend a recent article by Clarice Feldman in American Thinker:<br /><br />https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2020/03/coronavirus_when_all_else_fails_try_reason.html<br /><br />It's a good wrap-up of what's known to date, and it provides some good reasons for why this virus has been over-hyped and is likely to prove much less dangerous than the press would have you Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-91765377049032211932020-02-29T07:53:24.928-08:002020-02-29T07:53:24.928-08:00New England Journal of Medicine: Coronavirus Could...New England Journal of Medicine: Coronavirus Could Be No Worse than Flu<br />JOEL B. POLLAK<br />28 Feb 2020 https://www.breitbart.com/health/2020/02/28/new-england-journal-of-medicine-coronavirus-could-be-no-worse-than-flu/<br /><br />The death rate for the coronavirus with reported data is 1.4%, but with virtually no reports of mild illness, which all know to be extensive, The actual rate arrotsevnihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10944691704001473128noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-90137730561945028892020-02-29T07:49:49.981-08:002020-02-29T07:49:49.981-08:00https://youtu.be/kIL5m5XznNY
Here is a great 5 mi...https://youtu.be/kIL5m5XznNY<br /><br />Here is a great 5 minute video by a doctor, explaining everything we know about coronavirus, and what to do about it.<br />Zero hype or politicizing. Zero fear-mongering.<br />Its the flu. People get it. Dont spread it. How to avoid it.<br /><br />Johnny Bee Dawghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06836875640973245734noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-8571259616666808942020-02-29T05:37:10.398-08:002020-02-29T05:37:10.398-08:00The history of Fed Funds adjustments since 1953 sh...The history of Fed Funds adjustments since 1953 shows that the Fed follows T-Bill rates. T-Bill rates are market rates. Markets set rates and the Fed follows. The only instance when the Fed took preemptive action was the early 1980s when Volcker forced back-to-back recessions to quash inflation. With T-Bill rates at 1.25% the Fed has room for a 0.25% Fed Funds cut immediately. Another 0.25% cut arrotsevnihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10944691704001473128noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-47974142877200387252020-02-28T16:03:38.510-08:002020-02-28T16:03:38.510-08:00All that markets need to bottom is understanding o...All that markets need to bottom is understanding of “the problem”. Nothing has to be fixed to bottom.<br />Once we understand a problem, markets know it will get fixed.<br /><br />Market doesn’t care if a vaccine is ready to inject, or mass produce.<br />That’s months away. Could be Israel, could be Moderna. But that misses the point.<br /><br />If scientists actually make a vaccine, that Johnny Bee Dawghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06836875640973245734noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-36174763890196913702020-02-28T15:15:15.955-08:002020-02-28T15:15:15.955-08:00I wonder how Fed Treasury purchases and repo actio...I wonder how Fed Treasury purchases and repo actions affected markets this week.Johnny Bee Dawghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06836875640973245734noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-43375428330506914942020-02-28T12:44:54.876-08:002020-02-28T12:44:54.876-08:00I have a real hard time believing that this reacti...I have a real hard time believing that this reaction in the markets is only related to coronavirus. The ten year trading at 1.12% is NOT just Cvirus related but genuine recession concern. Time will tell.stevehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07387986994469835875noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-90941608093704431822020-02-28T12:24:34.901-08:002020-02-28T12:24:34.901-08:00Another angle on the vaccine is that odds are dece...Another angle on the vaccine is that odds are decent that the worst of infection counts will peak and diminish once warmer weather gets here. Widespread availability of the vaccine may be for following seasons. So with hope, a vaccine will be received with great relief by the markets soon, and ready to protect next season.randyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16368254229927808998noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-78787876718402588232020-02-28T11:44:52.204-08:002020-02-28T11:44:52.204-08:00The mere announcement of an effective vaccine, eve...The mere announcement of an effective vaccine, even if not widely available for 2-3 months, would probably be viewed by markets with a gigantic sigh of relief. The virus would undoubtedly continue to spread, but we would know that the contagion could be eventually controlled and the damage to the economy and confidence would be limited. Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-71097821373699731402020-02-28T10:05:59.978-08:002020-02-28T10:05:59.978-08:00To be clear, I don't mean to give investment a...To be clear, I don't mean to give investment advice. I don't have expertise to make predictions about the virus or the stock market. However, statements claiming vaccines "soon" or "in weeks" are pure government propaganda hogwash. Please take that into consideration.Charliehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04163738909524521887noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-81087889647984374932020-02-28T09:41:06.029-08:002020-02-28T09:41:06.029-08:00Yes. Trump is the most effective, competent, hard...Yes. Trump is the most effective, competent, hard working and productive President of my lifetime. <br />Methodically accomplishing what he promised he’d attempt when he campaigned.<br />And he’s very smart, and keeps the public informed with Tweets.<br />And he has the best political instincts of anybody in DC.<br /><br />Thank God he’s in charge during a crisis.<br />Johnny Bee Dawghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06836875640973245734noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-40698353093129687962020-02-28T09:39:52.208-08:002020-02-28T09:39:52.208-08:00Johnny Bee Dawg: Is that quote from a politician o...Johnny Bee Dawg: Is that quote from a politician or a real scientist? Hey, one thing we might agree on is that scientists are mostly liberals. So choose your source of information accordingly, I guess.<br /><br />If there is a vaccine in a few weeks, then I'm an idiot. If not, then some of you should seriously question the way you obtain and process information about science. And by vaccine ICharliehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04163738909524521887noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-10616874722027225682020-02-28T07:18:37.851-08:002020-02-28T07:18:37.851-08:00Wait, Donald Trump is "incredibly competent&q...Wait, Donald Trump is "incredibly competent"? Good Lord, that is not a moniker I would ever have used to describe him. Truth be told, it's a little scary that he is POTUS during this panic with his constant tweets effectively belittling the world reaction. stevehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07387986994469835875noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-859912575016721632020-02-28T05:50:39.664-08:002020-02-28T05:50:39.664-08:00Charlie: Barack is gone. You no longer have to f...Charlie: Barack is gone. You no longer have to fear Him. We now have a guy who is incredibly competent and hard-working.<br /><br />In other news:<br />Israeli scientists: 'In a few weeks, we will have coronavirus vaccine'<br />Quote from Science & Tech Minister of Israel.<br /><br />https://www.jpost.com/HEALTH-SCIENCE/Johnny Bee Dawghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06836875640973245734noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-89081647794996491252020-02-28T05:43:45.030-08:002020-02-28T05:43:45.030-08:00Let's get ready, Bay-Beee!
Market enters buyab...Let's get ready, Bay-Beee!<br />Market enters buyable area for this leg. Implied open was down 600 more this am (Friday). It can go lower. Come to papa.<br />Its finally worth it to begin to step in some today. Layer it.<br />Bond prices have risen almost to targets. The entire decline has been very orderly. <br /><br />Weekend could bring horrible news...or we could find that more of Johnny Bee Dawghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06836875640973245734noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-38291979153402303592020-02-28T05:31:04.153-08:002020-02-28T05:31:04.153-08:00There may be a price to pay for embracing a presid...There may be a price to pay for embracing a president who is a lousy manager, a pathological liar, appallingly ignorant about a wide range of topics, and unable to process facts that do not agree with his "gut" or whatever he happened to see on Fox news last night, amongst other personal failures.Charliehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04163738909524521887noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-85001773694819862652020-02-27T06:38:38.146-08:002020-02-27T06:38:38.146-08:00Posted this elsewhere by accident. This is a dupl...Posted this elsewhere by accident. This is a duplicate. Sorry...<br /><br />2900-2950 area on S&P has "support" because the the October unfilled gap, and the semi-log moving averages.<br />Worth a shot at selling some TLT at that point, and leaning into broad stock indexes.<br /><br />Markets bottom once we fully understand "the problem". Nothing has to be fixed for Johnny Bee Dawghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06836875640973245734noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-11551084348312828072020-02-26T09:33:48.680-08:002020-02-26T09:33:48.680-08:00I hail from Singapore which had one of the highest...I hail from Singapore which had one of the highest infection rates outside of China for some time. I just told my mother over the dinner table that if I were to be infected with COVID-19, this is the best place to be in. What I fear though is not the COVID-19 but the local dengue infection cluster, which is more deadly as one might bleed out of his orifices till death.<br /><br />I am heartened Jeremy Yonghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06236108650447642628noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-78572561561468567802020-02-26T05:57:27.550-08:002020-02-26T05:57:27.550-08:00Novel threats like coronavirus are difficult to ta...Novel threats like coronavirus are difficult to talk about. We know that, like Benjamin describes, the media is in the business of sensationalizing. Officials and activists of all stripes also sensationalize – for political posturing, tribalism or even cover your ass groundwork. <br /><br />We also know historically that the world and the markets have quickly recovered from these scares. We randyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16368254229927808998noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-41466619400465092022020-02-25T16:52:14.354-08:002020-02-25T16:52:14.354-08:00Another terrific post by Scott Grannis.
The mains...Another terrific post by Scott Grannis.<br /><br />The mainstream media has a proclivity to sensationalize everything, and they have done so with the coronavirus. <br /><br />In addition, public Health agencies have the same agenda as national security agencies---that is, dramatize and fear-monger everything on the way to chronically larger budgets.<br /><br /> Actually, death rates outside HubeiBenjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-17293199992711619492020-02-25T15:59:08.238-08:002020-02-25T15:59:08.238-08:00aldom: thanks for the edit, now corrected to read ...aldom: thanks for the edit, now corrected to read 2016.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-68478386826645958402020-02-25T13:32:29.168-08:002020-02-25T13:32:29.168-08:00Scott,
Possibly one other unintended typo: Discu...Scott,<br /><br />Possibly one other unintended typo: Discussion of chart #5, Is it possible you are making reference to 2016, not 2006, as the prior record low?<br /><br />aldomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11782653935145577870noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-52272460438935962552020-02-25T12:57:35.237-08:002020-02-25T12:57:35.237-08:00Well, I did learn that the acting Homeland Securit...Well, I did learn that the acting Homeland Security Secretary told congress "months." I think it's safe to assume that he said so as a sort of compromise between what the president said and reality. Still, it was very brave of him to even marginally correct the president.<br /><br />There'll be a lot of never-Trump scientists saying a lot of stuff. Just keep tuned to Fox so you Charliehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04163738909524521887noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-29982108136037085452020-02-25T12:47:03.424-08:002020-02-25T12:47:03.424-08:00I suggest this is largely a "Bernie" vir...I suggest this is largely a "Bernie" virus as the C-virus could be a black swan for Trump as the '08 crisis was for McCain/GOP. Given that it will be awhile before this is fully contained and that it will likely get worse it could play into the dems hands in a way the impeachment nonsense did not.<br /><br />God forbid a Sanders POTUS.stevehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07387986994469835875noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-54562182985894173202020-02-25T12:46:47.738-08:002020-02-25T12:46:47.738-08:00Charlie: thanks for the edit, now corrected.Charlie: thanks for the edit, now corrected.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.com