tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post6049094959069464256..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: The end of deleveraging is approachingScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger11125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-32388444707227289622012-07-09T08:18:03.063-07:002012-07-09T08:18:03.063-07:00The FT analysis is incomprehensible to me. But I d...The FT analysis is incomprehensible to me. But I definitely disagree with their claim that TIPS will become useless.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-78282550092228403512012-07-08T17:55:04.101-07:002012-07-08T17:55:04.101-07:00Scott,
What do you think of this analysis - that ...Scott,<br /><br />What do you think of this analysis - that debt deflation continues and that TIPS will be rendered useless instruments.<br /><br />http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2012/07/06/1074181/ubs-tackles-the-negative-yield-puzzle/Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04562741178312721354noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-75806994792452374182012-07-01T11:45:59.305-07:002012-07-01T11:45:59.305-07:00Pragmatic Investor,
I disagree. What ultimately ...Pragmatic Investor, <br /><br />I disagree. What ultimately matters is the ability to service the debt. As that improves, consumers can buy more goods and services and the economy will move into higher gear.Américain à Parishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02166877752676343802noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-36152127892355330702012-06-25T13:11:52.432-07:002012-06-25T13:11:52.432-07:00Don't you think that the unprecedented amount ...Don't you think that the unprecedented amount of negative equity is having an impact on whole leveraging/de-leveraging cycle? <br />The capacity of consumers to releverage is crimped quite a bit by this.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17262885390494380253noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-77597837761938716082012-06-25T12:03:37.609-07:002012-06-25T12:03:37.609-07:00I cannot believe that anyone can think we are abou...I cannot believe that anyone can think we are about to releverage. We haven't even begun to delever! US total debt is all time highs and expanding every day...the austerity and fiscal adjustment necessary on a government and municipal level will create a tremendous drag on consumers through higher taxes and fees,<br />Fewer government jobs, and psychological effects of government the future investorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00867228614970786275noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-46732529958508239232012-06-25T06:55:15.135-07:002012-06-25T06:55:15.135-07:00If you look at the household debt chart in your ot...If you look at the household debt chart in your other post, it barely dropped from the peak. So where did the "de-leveraging" come from? It mostly came from the drop of interest rates. That's not de-leveraging. <br /><br />De-leveraging is a balance sheet issue, not a income/cash flow issue. It compares liabilities to assets. Having enough income to make payments only means you can Pragmatic Investorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08952759176339628535noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-90262776138066763252012-06-25T05:27:37.016-07:002012-06-25T05:27:37.016-07:00Earlier in my working life, I took on debt because...Earlier in my working life, I took on debt because I was confident that my earnings would increase over time, as my father's had. <br /><br />This is no longer true and the reason why "releveraging," on a broad scale, isn't likely.Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06365403570563730880noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-48534270572465174162012-06-25T00:32:15.476-07:002012-06-25T00:32:15.476-07:00Until the California fiscal crisis is resolved, a ...Until the California fiscal crisis is resolved, a "releveraging" by consumers is unlikely -- all eyes should be on California at this point...McKibbinUSAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10545798495680527622noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-29018782680153536072012-06-24T18:43:57.342-07:002012-06-24T18:43:57.342-07:0015Yes, the threat of inflation. It must be out the...15Yes, the threat of inflation. It must be out there somewhere. <br /><br />The Cleveland Fed says inflationary expectations are at record lows. Unit labor costs are lower today than four years ago. Equities are at 1999 levels. Commercial property off 33 percent (very roughly) from 2088 levels.<br /><br />Inflation? I worry also about getting beaten up by Tiny Tim.Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-60312569961896525812012-06-24T17:43:41.250-07:002012-06-24T17:43:41.250-07:00For a chart of households' total debt plus a l...For a chart of households' total debt plus a link to the historical data compiled by the Fed, see this post:<br /><br />http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2012/06/household-balance-sheets-continue-to.htmlScott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-84339887490477079092012-06-24T12:59:02.766-07:002012-06-24T12:59:02.766-07:00This is a pretty radical claim I would say, that w...This is a pretty radical claim I would say, that we are soon entering a period of releveraging. <br /><br />Can you show the historical development of the housholds' aggregate debt? I just got to see this to believe it.<br /><br />Thanks!<br />Fredterexhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13878600108197052363noreply@blogger.com