tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post60170461680805799..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Further evidence the Euro scare is passingScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger20125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-64596897169942627912010-06-23T08:56:56.090-07:002010-06-23T08:56:56.090-07:00zumbador: Thanks for bringing this to my attention...zumbador: Thanks for bringing this to my attention. I've know the author, Joe Carson, for a long time but it's been awhile since I've seen any of his pieces. While I don't always agree with the way he looks at things (he is a bit of a Keynesian), he has done some very good work in the past and has never worried about bucking the consensus, which is something I do like very much. Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-50377347027721321172010-06-23T08:42:33.193-07:002010-06-23T08:42:33.193-07:00Frozen: Greece probably will default or restructur...Frozen: Greece probably will default or restructure, but that doesn't make this a crisis. The crisis would be if this caused a cascade of defaults in Europe that then ended up paralyzing the global banking system. I don't see that happening.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-88239354762578438542010-06-23T08:27:46.976-07:002010-06-23T08:27:46.976-07:00Mr. Grannis,
I ran across this report, "The N...Mr. Grannis,<br />I ran across this report, "The New Mix: Realigning the Sources of US Economic Growth" published by Alliance Bernstein for June 2010. I would be interested in any comments you and/or your readers might be willing to share in regard to the report. <br />The report can be easily found on the Alliance Bernstein website and I have provided a link below that I believe you zumbadorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16032799732442564653noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-19134467206694308172010-06-23T06:14:13.597-07:002010-06-23T06:14:13.597-07:00Ok the chorus gets lounder. Greek CDS are at 775 ...Ok the chorus gets lounder. Greek CDS are at 775 bps this AM, up 95 bps overnight. So, no the crisis is far from over. BTW look on our own shores and see what is happening in the CP market -- can you smell the fear, or at least the liquidity crunch.<br /><br />Far from over, the dance has just started. Deleveraging is the name of the game, and it last between 5-10 years (Japan is going on itsFrozen in the Northhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04901959687094626879noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-86271013720865152252010-06-22T16:29:04.973-07:002010-06-22T16:29:04.973-07:00Benj-
maybe you should look at corporate vs treas...Benj-<br /><br />maybe you should look at corporate vs treasury spreads. Corporate debt is the cheapest its been to treasuries in nearly 2yrs. <br />There is plenty of yield out there.acrossthecurvehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16425254934059527965noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-74841585717312928282010-06-22T15:54:36.638-07:002010-06-22T15:54:36.638-07:00John-
I like your last comments about being optim...John-<br /><br />I like your last comments about being optimistic. Now is the time.<br /><br />When the bands are playing in the street, sell.<br /><br />When gloom is the constant companion, buy.<br /><br />BTW: I am reading "Panic" at SG's suggestion. A book report is pending.Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-60877898302897094632010-06-22T15:08:00.269-07:002010-06-22T15:08:00.269-07:00John,
Optimism is great and good for the mind, bo...John,<br /><br />Optimism is great and good for the mind, body, and soul. However, too much of anything makes you an attic.<br /><br /><br />My observations put the market 50/50 bull vs bear. I don't think the climate is as one sided as this blog makes it out to be.Public Libraryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00017383928897945054noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-2899509843219576912010-06-22T14:34:25.966-07:002010-06-22T14:34:25.966-07:00Public,
Please accept my apology for my mistaken ...Public,<br /><br />Please accept my apology for my mistaken assumptions regarding your beliefs. <br /><br />Although I may have implied it I did not say Chinese equity markets were not in a bear market. I said I would leave the definition to others. If you say it is, fine. It is what it is. <br /><br />As always, you make fair points. I am with you on limited government and low taxes. I, too am Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11652253509768573561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-9397970195905077712010-06-22T13:57:02.722-07:002010-06-22T13:57:02.722-07:00Benji,
Scott can articulate this better than me b...Benji,<br /><br />Scott can articulate this better than me but my understanding is that when two different currencies are pegged to float together vs other currencies the monetary policies need to be aligned or the peg is put at risk over time. <br /><br />I might be in error here since I am drawing on my amatuer economic logic. Perhaps Scott will feel inclined to weigh in.Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11652253509768573561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-54151498104361887342010-06-22T13:38:10.961-07:002010-06-22T13:38:10.961-07:00John,
You obviously do not understand my position...John,<br /><br />You obviously do not understand my position in the slightest.<br /><br />I am for limited government, low single rate taxes, and the unwinding of the Federal Reserves black box.<br /><br />You don't call -20% in the Shanghai index a bear market? You sound like the government. Just change the definition when necessary.<br /><br />We will not grow ourselves out of the debt Public Libraryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00017383928897945054noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-27337568667170575952010-06-22T13:29:53.597-07:002010-06-22T13:29:53.597-07:00John-
I don't follow. China's money suppl...John-<br />I don't follow. China's money supply is up 20-25 percent in last year, while MZM is down not up.Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-56217176513454701662010-06-22T13:14:23.795-07:002010-06-22T13:14:23.795-07:00And another one liner from Septi.And another one liner from Septi.Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11652253509768573561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-11214708393246009212010-06-22T13:11:18.479-07:002010-06-22T13:11:18.479-07:00another stem-winder from john.another stem-winder from john.septizoniomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14253705209662419429noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-1280762462499817132010-06-22T12:45:24.081-07:002010-06-22T12:45:24.081-07:00Public,
All your points are valid. However I woul...Public,<br /><br />All your points are valid. However I would point out the following:<br /><br />1. Housing may or may not be 'rolling over'. Despite the media hype that existing home sales were 'unexpectedly' down in May, I can hardly believe their adverb is appropriate. I do not know of anyone who did not expect sales from May to be pulled into April due to the expiration of Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11652253509768573561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-24440996927899420132010-06-22T11:34:15.751-07:002010-06-22T11:34:15.751-07:00Benj,
By pegging their currency to the US dollar ...Benj,<br /><br />By pegging their currency to the US dollar China has largely adopted our monetary policy. Thus a loose fed is stimulative to China. <br /><br />I agree China must be considered when evaluating commodity prices. As you point out China is a major consumer.Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11652253509768573561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-15264273297704343502010-06-22T11:08:01.001-07:002010-06-22T11:08:01.001-07:00BTW-Cover WSJ today, China eclipses USA to become ...BTW-Cover WSJ today, China eclipses USA to become world's largest manufacturer. And is pulling away....<br /><br />Thus, if you want to talk about commodities, you have to include China in the conversation, and more and more every year. <br /><br />If you think higher commodities prices necessarily reflect Fed action, you might be reading false signals....Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-16607478251838276442010-06-22T11:01:20.148-07:002010-06-22T11:01:20.148-07:00Let' not forget the TED spread!
http://www.b...Let' not forget the TED spread!<br /><br />http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=.tedsp:ind<br /><br />I think right now is the best investment environment. <br /><br />- Equity are relatively cheap<br />- there are no excesses to collapse because the world has already collapsed<br />- the monetary policies are the wind on investors' back<br />- the world is in a positive feedback 狂猪https://www.blogger.com/profile/16599529315620633684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-21567743802299184622010-06-22T10:57:13.376-07:002010-06-22T10:57:13.376-07:00It seems like on the margin, things are heading in...It seems like on the margin, things are heading in a negative direction.<br /><br />Housing is rolling over.<br /><br />US equities sold off and are flat for the year.<br /><br />Gold is hitting fresh highs.<br /><br />Unemployment is stuck in a holding pattern. While declining rates of job losses were good, elevated unemployment overtime is bad. <br /><br />Eurzone CDS and 10YR spread to bunds Public Libraryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00017383928897945054noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-45948824956085295672010-06-22T10:28:53.175-07:002010-06-22T10:28:53.175-07:00I suspect even lower yields are in the future---to...I suspect even lower yields are in the future---too much capital looking for a home, not enough places to invest. <br />And while very low yields seem odd now, until the 1970s low yields were the norm. <br />The Fed may in fact be following a too-tight monetary policy, which paradoxically causes low interest rates. Why? No threat of inflation, yet no great equity opportunities in a sluggish Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-20478478484455249602010-06-22T10:15:27.909-07:002010-06-22T10:15:27.909-07:00how can you be so confident it was just a "sc...how can you be so confident it was just a "scare"? at some point, do you ever question your militant optimism?septizoniomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14253705209662419429noreply@blogger.com