tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post5972321849526674242..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: About that yield curve inversion ...Scott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-73370500603067577312022-12-11T09:10:02.113-08:002022-12-11T09:10:02.113-08:00Re Mark “How, if at all, do labor costs figure in ...Re Mark “How, if at all, do labor costs figure in your analysis?”<br /><br />The cost of labor does not create inflation. Typically, labor costs rise after inflation rises. If labor becomes more productive, then labor costs can rise even if there is little or no inflation; that is what drives improvement in living standards. Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-49882862493322010232022-12-11T08:23:17.810-08:002022-12-11T08:23:17.810-08:00How, if at all, do labor costs figure in your anal...How, if at all, do labor costs figure in your analysis?Mark F.https://www.blogger.com/profile/11900762632172187274noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-90363330342411218332022-12-09T13:25:04.831-08:002022-12-09T13:25:04.831-08:00Thanks a lot, your explanation of the current infl...Thanks a lot, your explanation of the current inflation episode really makes sense to me.Adamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00325788638301535314noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-9882062297724158222022-12-08T23:00:46.125-08:002022-12-08T23:00:46.125-08:00Michael: That’s an excellent question. My rational...Michael: That’s an excellent question. My rationale for saying that the odds of recession are lower than the market expects is based on my observation that there are very few signs of recession at this point: credit and swap spreads are relative low, liquidity is abundant, jobs are expanding and unemployment claims are low. Abundant liquidity is the one thing that is so different this time aroundScott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-68549780290648051452022-12-08T20:01:59.219-08:002022-12-08T20:01:59.219-08:00I’m with you when you say the odds of a recession ...I’m with you when you say the odds of a recession are lower than the market expects, but I don’t understand how that implies the FED will hike rates less than the market expects. Michael Meyershttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16897177627300304126noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-18884148388279656812022-12-08T09:09:34.327-08:002022-12-08T09:09:34.327-08:00Using monetarism, legal reserves always pointed to...Using monetarism, legal reserves always pointed to a recession. With DDs, now the inflection point is not as sharp.<br /><br />Is the deflator really, right?<br />Q3 2022: 4.3 too low<br />Q2 2022: 9.1<br />Q1 2022: 8.4<br />Q4 2021: 6.8<br />Q3 2021: 6.2Salmo Truttahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13910212017849902362noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-19253173851896800242022-12-08T09:04:16.982-08:002022-12-08T09:04:16.982-08:00DXY down 8% from high. No "soft landing"...DXY down 8% from high. No "soft landing" for U.S. Treasury.Salmo Truttahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13910212017849902362noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-9954434116700674442022-12-07T17:48:37.821-08:002022-12-07T17:48:37.821-08:00John, thanks for spotting that typo, now fixed. I ...John, thanks for spotting that typo, now fixed. I think you have a good point about the inflation episode which followed WWII. Back then the economy was going through a huge post-war transition. Lots of enthusiasm, lots of demand for things (non-war stuff) that were not in great supply. A sort of demand shock. In a sense that’s what we had early last year. Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-476968617352029422022-12-07T15:54:13.878-08:002022-12-07T15:54:13.878-08:00"And iso the Fed is likely to hike rates less..."And <b>iso</b> the Fed is likely to hike rates less than the market expects."<br /><br />Typo.<br /><br />I've read several times that the inflation we've been getting lately was more akin to the brief inflation after WWII. Is there a way to compare non-yield curve financial conditions back then to what we've been seeing lately?John Ahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10670015527620779417noreply@blogger.com