tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post552565746719902196..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Real home prices: 18 months of stabilityScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger11125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-88551355178302921562010-12-01T07:45:07.474-08:002010-12-01T07:45:07.474-08:00Talking your book doesn't equate to analysis. ...Talking your book doesn't equate to analysis. Very glad to hear that thinks are great in Atlanta (2% of America's population), but what's that got to do with America? America's reality is that for 10 year too many homes were built, people are upside down on their mortgage.<br /><br />The primary implication, is labor mobility. If you cannot sell your house in Miami, you cannot Frozen in the Northhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04901959687094626879noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-67799816846311368302010-12-01T06:27:42.875-08:002010-12-01T06:27:42.875-08:00Marmico,
There is no question that Atlanta will b...Marmico,<br /><br />There is no question that Atlanta will be behind other cities regarding a commmercial real estate recovery. However, it's better than it was last year and will improve next year based on the deals we are seeing. And yes, the AIA billings index is down this month from last month's reading but there are still some signs of life out there, at least for the larger firms Billhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06910619601367464068noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-13794460201980076232010-12-01T05:14:56.806-08:002010-12-01T05:14:56.806-08:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.marmicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08277071086056574486noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-22378903105118176202010-12-01T04:48:53.646-08:002010-12-01T04:48:53.646-08:00Probably the best (or at least the least wrong) wa...Probably the best (or at least the least wrong) way to look at housing costs is as a percentage of real income. On that measure, housing, as an expense item, is as cheap as it has been in 40 + years. Having said that, it is not homogeneous enough to classify as an investment asset as either rich or cheap. A condo in Vegas is worth pretty much nothing-clearing levels should be in the 50% of Steve Fultonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17201413605319579983noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-75780780100544841872010-11-30T17:53:56.851-08:002010-11-30T17:53:56.851-08:00Bill: the signs of contagion (e.g., swap spreads, ...Bill: the signs of contagion (e.g., swap spreads, equity prices, sovereign debt) are not strong enough to suggest we are on the verge of a world financial crisis. US swap spreads, for example, are still at levels that are perfectly consistent with normal conditions. Sovereign spreads suggest that the PIGS are about as risky as junk bonds. Euro swap spreads are still well below the levels of last Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-9420710626049294732010-11-30T15:22:54.524-08:002010-11-30T15:22:54.524-08:00Scott,
Does it make sense for the EU to try anoth...Scott,<br /><br />Does it make sense for the EU to try another tack in fighting this contagion issue? Seems a shame that all of the positive US data news is going to waste on the Euro debt crisis which looks like it might lead to another world financial crisis.Billhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06910619601367464068noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-59249628877579557552010-11-30T12:00:53.274-08:002010-11-30T12:00:53.274-08:00A couple of suggestions to improve your charts. Sp...A couple of suggestions to improve your charts. Specify whether you are using SA or NSA index values and which (BEA?) deflator.<br /><br />Another heads up. The Federal Reserve uses the <a href="http://www.corelogic.com/About-Us/News/CoreLogic-Home-Price-Index-Shows-Decline-for-Second-Straight-Month.aspx" rel="nofollow">CoreLogic HPI</a>. The data is more granular and timely and now shows year marmicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08277071086056574486noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-62737191832685910022010-11-30T10:20:07.671-08:002010-11-30T10:20:07.671-08:00This comment has been removed by the author.Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-445397178830665822010-11-30T10:19:53.413-08:002010-11-30T10:19:53.413-08:00OT, but I always like hearing about Milton Firedma...OT, but I always like hearing about Milton Firedman, my favorite thinker, let alone economist.<br /><br />Milton Friedman Supports Ben Bernanke on Quantitative Easing<br /><br />David Beckworth relays a catch by Doug Irwin:<br /><br />http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/2010/11/case-closed-milton-friedman-would-have.html Case Closed: Milton Friedman Would Have Supported QE2: The debate over Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-29843211888091127302010-11-30T10:12:11.714-08:002010-11-30T10:12:11.714-08:00Excellent post, but real estate remains in a deep ...Excellent post, but real estate remains in a deep recession.<br /> <br />I have mixed feeling about this; we overinvest in real estate, thanks to the tax code. Yet our economy is what it is. If real estate does not come back, I see long, very long term pain for many middle-class families (ie your biggest investment is a dud) and small businesses (try getting an SBA loan w/o postng collateral, ieBenjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-75802844593012128042010-11-30T10:02:21.664-08:002010-11-30T10:02:21.664-08:00Since central air conditioning didn't come int...Since central air conditioning didn't come into prominence until the 1950's I always problems with housing<br />charts going way back. This chart looks like Shiller at work....the dude is way too academic in his observations...especially when you include data that has William Mckinley as President...broderohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12296214283216386700noreply@blogger.com