tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post5359242885632895196..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Just another panic attackScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger45125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-85354737296776463512018-11-22T11:22:56.530-08:002018-11-22T11:22:56.530-08:00Don't give up Scott; or let the trolls get you...Don't give up Scott; or let the trolls get you down. Many, many of us appreciate your insights and do not take them to be guarantees or recommendations, rather observations that we can use in whatever way we choose. Those that throw excrement in your direction should just be ignored. Have a great Thanksgiving today, and thank you.<br />Comanche Pilothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11509671551747063683noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-15748492342575566062018-11-22T11:20:48.364-08:002018-11-22T11:20:48.364-08:00This comment has been removed by the author.Comanche Pilothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11509671551747063683noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-19136955676566962422018-11-21T13:39:09.021-08:002018-11-21T13:39:09.021-08:00On FED QE undo, here is the impact calculated, if ...On FED QE undo, here is the impact calculated, if one believes in that theory.<br />https://www.cfr.org/blog/geo-graphicsAdamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00325788638301535314noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-34021825193895450082018-11-20T07:23:09.131-08:002018-11-20T07:23:09.131-08:00Is everything ok old buddy? We haven't heard f...Is everything ok old buddy? We haven't heard from you in a while!Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10762409644296820875noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-30635885223908264782018-10-28T20:37:58.117-07:002018-10-28T20:37:58.117-07:00There's no reason for the Fed to actually rais...There's no reason for the Fed to actually raise above equilibrium, Fred, unless they want to cause damage to the current progress. Nothing justifies it in the data.<br />Their words were enough to crack markets a month before midterms. Sly dogs. They dont have to follow thru with actions.<br /><br />"Immoral suasion" works well enough to give MAGA a kick in the balls, make Johnny Bee Dawghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06836875640973245734noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-63655518483163708542018-10-28T04:51:21.684-07:002018-10-28T04:51:21.684-07:00JBD, y point re why markets are moving is that to ...JBD, y point re why markets are moving is that to suggest as the pundits on CNBC do that the markets are moving for one reason or another is to imply that you can "time" the markets which is fatuous at face value. <br /><br />The markets move for one reason; more buyers than sellers or vice versa. Why more? No one knows. Sure as hell not you.stevehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07387986994469835875noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-16996087637369552872018-10-26T08:19:33.045-07:002018-10-26T08:19:33.045-07:00I think you are right about the FED JBD but is it ...I think you are right about the FED JBD but is it really likely that they will raise rates above equilibrium? Also, it seems very unlikely that even a blue wave will produce veto proof democratic majorities in Congress. Taxes will not go up and neither will regulations increase prior to 2020. Seems like FANGS have been a huge driver in the run up and perhaps were overvalued? Fredhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16903149440854167071noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-49421792113463802312018-10-26T03:40:16.528-07:002018-10-26T03:40:16.528-07:00Steve....still clueless about why markets cracked?...Steve....still clueless about why markets cracked?<br />Still NO WAY to know?<br /><br /><br />Johnny Bee Dawghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06836875640973245734noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-37529176063453368062018-10-18T14:51:20.617-07:002018-10-18T14:51:20.617-07:00I suggest pistols at 10 paces as the only way to s...I suggest pistols at 10 paces as the only way to settle this once and for all. Fredhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16903149440854167071noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-76343095884500122432018-10-18T08:07:48.861-07:002018-10-18T08:07:48.861-07:00xr-3609: are you HAL 9000 salvaged from the Hollyw...xr-3609: are you HAL 9000 salvaged from the Hollywood prop junk heap? Are you feeling better now? Does Dave still love you?<br /><br />CBP is vain. He should do none harm. He is not an investment advisor. Take down the post. Even HAL and JBD should be protected from your incompetence. marcusbalbushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13596266889368486043noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-10688285687150781072018-10-18T08:06:54.607-07:002018-10-18T08:06:54.607-07:00This comment has been removed by the author.marcusbalbushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13596266889368486043noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-50394712986781184762018-10-16T12:08:00.455-07:002018-10-16T12:08:00.455-07:00Re: entitlements. They are indeed a big problem. S...Re: entitlements. They are indeed a big problem. Something must be done to cut them back/slow their growth. Fortunately, it's not impossible, but it does require political backbone which is still in short supply. Meanwhile, growing the economy is the next best solution, and that is proceeding.<br /><br />A glimmer of good news on the spending front: total government spending in the recently Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-64606334004837819592018-10-16T11:02:11.182-07:002018-10-16T11:02:11.182-07:00Scott: Thanks again for a truly informative blog!
...Scott: Thanks again for a truly informative blog!<br /><br />As for marcus: "Let the doors be shut upon him that he may<br /><br />play the fool nowhere but in's own house.<br /><br />Farwell."xr-3609https://www.blogger.com/profile/08361430517471885323noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-56388886639360371342018-10-16T10:18:06.599-07:002018-10-16T10:18:06.599-07:00I heard Alan Greenspan interviewed on the radio th...I heard Alan Greenspan interviewed on the radio this morning, and he seems very worried that entitlements are a major threat to the economy. While he would ordinarily be happy about the tax cuts, he said the problem is that we have not cut spending. It seems hard to believe that we can go on for long this way without a huge impact on the markets.Fredhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16903149440854167071noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-38517189621370158772018-10-16T07:59:18.774-07:002018-10-16T07:59:18.774-07:00Re "May I have your permission to share links...Re "May I have your permission to share links to your blog with clients?" <br /><br />Of course.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-6932134062725528062018-10-16T07:58:51.334-07:002018-10-16T07:58:51.334-07:00Re "Weren't these charts showing that the...Re "Weren't these charts showing that the economy was healthy in late 2007?"<br /><br />Some charts could be interpreted as "healthy" in late 2007. But quite a few very key charts could not. For example, in late 2007 2-yr swap spreads were rising, real yields on 5-yr TIPS were double what they are now, the Treasury yield curve was flat/inverted, credit spreads were high Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-81396157168734171132018-10-15T18:46:57.735-07:002018-10-15T18:46:57.735-07:00Weren't these charts showing that the economy ...Weren't these charts showing that the economy was healthy in late 2007? Also, didn't you say during the Obama administration that debt levels were too high? What happens to that debt service as interest rates continue to rise? It seems as though it might pay to be a bit more cautious. Fredhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16903149440854167071noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-89870505856904606772018-10-15T13:53:58.261-07:002018-10-15T13:53:58.261-07:00Mr. Grannis,
I appreciate the depth of knowledge ...Mr. Grannis,<br /><br />I appreciate the depth of knowledge from which you share your opinions. I was first introduced to your blog by a representative of Western Asset. As a practicing financial advisor, I find a few sources with the intellectual pedigree that you possess which makes me comfortable enough to share with clients. May I have your permission to share links to your blog with clients?The Gunnyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13437749684599496730noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-33613260720188321152018-10-14T13:01:46.378-07:002018-10-14T13:01:46.378-07:00This comment has been removed by the author.George Madisonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00553997812057601757noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-35436542758521320872018-10-14T07:05:29.622-07:002018-10-14T07:05:29.622-07:00Thanks Scott, great write up. You should be the ri...Thanks Scott, great write up. You should be the ringleader on WTWA !Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03325161511229044566noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-14968784943047620322018-10-13T11:53:47.873-07:002018-10-13T11:53:47.873-07:00All excellent reasons. Thank you. All excellent reasons. Thank you. Fredhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16903149440854167071noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-12643918378214476732018-10-13T11:34:43.162-07:002018-10-13T11:34:43.162-07:00so we can all admire JBD's "worse than le...so we can all admire JBD's "worse than leprosy" visage, the peanut gallery's gullibility, and of course pangloss's vanity. marcusbalbushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13596266889368486043noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-11780307127594279882018-10-13T08:20:31.249-07:002018-10-13T08:20:31.249-07:00I thought Marcus ordered Scott to take this post d...I thought Marcus ordered Scott to take this post down. Why is it still up?Fredhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16903149440854167071noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-91538450405630913982018-10-13T08:15:09.937-07:002018-10-13T08:15:09.937-07:00I wonder if anybody could think of a reason that s...I wonder if anybody could think of a reason that stocks took off like a jack rabbit back in November 2016.<br />Its all so unknowable!! <br />There's NO WAY to know!!!<br />Johnny Bee Dawghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06836875640973245734noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-3832735210026260652018-10-13T07:11:10.884-07:002018-10-13T07:11:10.884-07:00I agree with George Madison, Trump's stated an...I agree with George Madison, Trump's stated and actual struggle with China is strategic, with implications for global power dominance decades in the future. There are questions:<br /><br />1. If Trump caves before success; it will have effectively become, in hindsight, a game of "tariff chicken" <br />2. China is experiencing a debt and real estate bubble, along with a slowing xr-3609https://www.blogger.com/profile/08361430517471885323noreply@blogger.com