tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post5301105155655159145..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Quick thoughts on GDP: more stagflationScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger13125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-11110324223095680532012-10-30T14:58:38.382-07:002012-10-30T14:58:38.382-07:00We aren't ever going to fill that potential GD...We aren't ever going to fill that potential GDP gap. Why? Our changing demographs.<br /><br />Over the last 20 years percentage of white and Asian population in the US has been declining while the black and hispanic part has been growing. The cause for the GDP gap then will be the productivity disparity between these two groups.<br /><br />It is easily seen in education attainment. Only 10NormanBhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05986709079442388236noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-18749911750341027642012-10-27T00:30:09.399-07:002012-10-27T00:30:09.399-07:00Gold is in a major bull market and is going way hi...Gold is in a major bull market and is going way higher. No one owns gold nor gold stocks even 13 years into this bull market. Ownership is about 1-2% of global capital. The global sovereign debt crisis is only going to get worse and money printing will be the order of the day in the coming years. JordanRBhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15704424993574549255noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-3656705073711761822012-10-26T13:56:12.796-07:002012-10-26T13:56:12.796-07:00djakel: Re China buying up gold and turning the yu...djakel: Re China buying up gold and turning the yuan into the premiere gold-backed reserve currency. The one problem with this as I see it is that the Chinese are buying gold at extremely elevated levels. This smacks of classic bureaucratic thinking, which always reacts to events rather than being proactive. The time to accumulate gold was 10 years ago, not today when it is almost three times Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-65211584577587223022012-10-26T13:31:24.956-07:002012-10-26T13:31:24.956-07:00Schaeffers Investors Intelligence
This is the opi...Schaeffers Investors Intelligence<br /><br />This is the opinion of investment news letters.<br /><br />--------Bullish-----Bearish<br />10/24-----41.5--------27.7<br />10/17-----42.6--------26.6<br />10/10-----45.7--------25.5<br />10/03-----46.8--------25.5<br />09/26-----51----------24.5<br />09/19-----54.2--------24.5Williamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04418491109912775561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-49934990864068364912012-10-26T13:26:14.612-07:002012-10-26T13:26:14.612-07:00LIPPER US Fund Flows
Monthly September
Equity Fu...<b>LIPPER US Fund Flows</b><br /><br /><b>Monthly September</b> <br />Equity Fund Inflows $7.8 Bil; Taxable Bond Fund Inflows $34.3 Bil<br />xETFs - Equity Fund Outflows -$17.3 Bil; <br />Taxable Bond Fund Inflows $31.8 Bil<br /><br /><b>Quarterly Q3</b> <br />Equity Fund Inflows $2.6 Bil; Taxable Bond Fund Inflows $87.9 Bil<br />xETFs - Equity Fund Outflows -$40.8 Bil; <br />Taxable Bond Fund Williamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04418491109912775561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-78323613969458884852012-10-26T13:21:44.369-07:002012-10-26T13:21:44.369-07:00ECRI WLI Ticks Up
A measure of future U.S. econom...<b>ECRI WLI Ticks Up</b><br /><br />A measure of future U.S. economic expansion edged up last week, though the annualized growth rate declined for the first time since June.<br />The Economic Cycle Research Institute said its Weekly Leading Index gained slightly to 126.8 in the week ended Oct. 19 from 126.6 the previous week.<br /><br />The index's annualized growth rate slipped to 6.0 Williamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04418491109912775561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-24126371732765704942012-10-26T13:16:22.238-07:002012-10-26T13:16:22.238-07:00There is another country that has been buying up t...There is another country that has been buying up tonnes of gold in the last 3 years. China. When they accumulate enough (3-8 years), they will back their currency with gold and challenge the U.S. to do the same or lose reserve currency status. A pre-emptive strike of backing the dollar with gold would also be our best strategy for enforcing discipline on Congress.<br /><br />http://djakelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06247798800719389756noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-36320930801099979052012-10-26T13:12:21.669-07:002012-10-26T13:12:21.669-07:00Out of the IMF working paper: The Chicago Plan Rev...Out of the IMF working paper: The Chicago Plan Revisited<br /><br />"At the height of the Great Depression a number of leading U.S. economists advanced a<br />proposal for monetary reform that became known as the Chicago Plan. It envisaged the<br />separation of the monetary and credit functions of the banking system, by requiring 100%<br />reserve backing for deposits. Irving Fisher (1936) Public Libraryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00017383928897945054noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-91678040077953642382012-10-26T11:23:28.160-07:002012-10-26T11:23:28.160-07:00just a matter of time before the poop hits the fan...just a matter of time before the poop hits the fan due to a fed that insists on playing god with artificially low rates and other shenanigans. what puzzles me is why scott and others are so bullish given this backdrop. surely the main reason behind the resurgence of RE and other assets has been low interest rates. I just cannot make myself believe that fed manipulation can build a foundation stevehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07387986994469835875noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-4719954428723134082012-10-26T11:17:55.432-07:002012-10-26T11:17:55.432-07:00Scott that is a fantastic idea. Some argue Germany...Scott that is a fantastic idea. Some argue Germany has a golden opportunity to 1) exit the Euro while they are in decent shape, and 2) back their currency with gold. Their central bank is known for its hawkish stance given its history. The combination of gold + a strong central bank would provide a potent combination and possibly the next reserve currency of the world. It is difficult to Public Libraryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00017383928897945054noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-44256066782467926162012-10-26T11:06:25.897-07:002012-10-26T11:06:25.897-07:00Buddy: I would put it slightly differently: The Fe...Buddy: I would put it slightly differently: The Fed's mandate should be to pursue price stability, since that is the best way to incentivize investments and achieve low unemployment and rising living standards. <br /><br />The key, of course, is what method they use to achieve price stability. The current method, which involves targeting short-term interest rates, has not done a very good jobScott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-72932630300455585512012-10-26T10:57:18.885-07:002012-10-26T10:57:18.885-07:00Great summary + conclusion. Maybe the market is pr...Great summary + conclusion. Maybe the market is pricing in the risk of another mishap from the Fed already. As you suggest, the longer the price distortions go on, the higher the probability of a major error in 3-5 years’ time. It took 8 years to produce another bust after the 2001 tech bubble. We are 4 years into what is definitely another misallocation of money and credit. Question is where andPublic Libraryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00017383928897945054noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-38958746132757541672012-10-26T09:42:02.284-07:002012-10-26T09:42:02.284-07:00" The incentive to save is low and the incent...<i>" The incentive to save is low and the incentive to speculate is high, and that is not a prescription for healthy economic growth."</i><br /><br />Maybe the Congressional mandate for the Fed should be to incentivize investments and stablalize money growth.Buddy R Pacificohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12737107556268024013noreply@blogger.com