tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post5266058293047030207..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Subprime factoids -- we've seen most of the bad newsScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-46055506419025482852008-10-28T14:17:00.000-07:002008-10-28T14:17:00.000-07:00Mark, a few comments: Moral hazard has finally fou...Mark, a few comments: Moral hazard has finally found its way back to the housing market. That is good. It will be a long time before housing gets overvalued again, or lenders make zero down loans again. The link between the trade deficit and housing makes sense. Lots of money was coming into our market from overseas, and it ended up funding a lot of the mortgages that they went bust. Foreigners Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-79419379172712921512008-10-27T22:49:00.000-07:002008-10-27T22:49:00.000-07:00seven star, you need to take a crash course in der...seven star, you need to take a crash course in derivatives. You're way off base and wrong by a mile.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-44572263936282885002008-10-27T19:59:00.000-07:002008-10-27T19:59:00.000-07:00Hey Scott,So, why should all of humanity be forced...Hey Scott,<BR/><BR/><I>So, why should all of humanity be forced to suffer and struggle any longer, now that the entire global financial system has been exposed as a mind-boggling deception, within many other deceptions? No one in their right mind would continue to be enslaved by a proven deception, which is also proven to be undeniable slavery-by-proxy !!!</I><BR/><BR/><A HREF="http://Seven Star Handhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15707393570093417590noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-4333683479779419152008-10-27T19:41:00.000-07:002008-10-27T19:41:00.000-07:00Thanks for that clear response. Your analysis of t...Thanks for that clear response. Your analysis of the subprime problem is very close to my own one year ago, but given the credit crisis and subsequent market reaction, it just seems like something bigger than a $600B loss due to subprime defaults.<BR/><BR/>After rereading your post, I'm wondering about your remark that leverage only makes the loss larger for the holder, not the system. I don't Mark Gerberhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07980096984624964261noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-23813370100997851142008-10-27T13:52:00.000-07:002008-10-27T13:52:00.000-07:00Subprime loan defaults are an order of magnitude h...Subprime loan defaults are an order of magnitude higher than other types of loans. My point in the post is that we've almost surely seen the worst of the news. Total losses from all mortgage defaults aren't likely to be more than $1 trillion (I think).<BR/><BR/>Home equity withdrawal has been way over-rated as a source of the economy's strength. How can the economy get stronger if I spend some ofScott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-49248298029792743782008-10-27T13:31:00.000-07:002008-10-27T13:31:00.000-07:00Hi again Scott,Boy, do I hate to play devil's advo...Hi again Scott,<BR/>Boy, do I hate to play devil's advocate, but I respect your opinion, so I would sure like to have my fears proven wrong:<BR/><BR/>Aren't the subprime mortgages just the canary in the coalmine of the credit bubble? For example, it is looking like Alt-A loans are now starting to default at increasing rates.<BR/><BR/>The entire value of homes in the USA was about $22 Trillion atMark Gerberhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07980096984624964261noreply@blogger.com