tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post517177425774983903..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Commodities still going strongScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger13125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-73638601992125165242016-07-11T08:40:19.179-07:002016-07-11T08:40:19.179-07:00home city trung kính
http://homecitytrungkinh.com....<a href="http://homecitytrungkinh.com.vn/" rel="nofollow">home city trung kính</a><br><br /><a href="http://homecitytrungkinh.com.vn/" rel="nofollow">http://homecitytrungkinh.com.vn/</a><br><br /><a href="http://homecitytrungkinh.com.vn/tong-quan-du-an-home-city/" rel="nofollow">home city</a><br><br /><a href="http://homecitytrungkinh.com.vn/tong-quan-du-an-home-city/" rel="nofollow">http://Tien Lahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00482901660745281603noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-26220183699774878292009-12-29T18:00:41.494-08:002009-12-29T18:00:41.494-08:00Sovereign oil producers must continually decide wh...Sovereign oil producers must continually decide whether to sell their oil at the prevailing price, or pump less now in the hopes of selling it tomorrow at a higher price. "Gaming" the oil futures market is going on constantly. Sovereign states speculate on higher prices by withholding production; other non oil producing speculators must buy oil now and then store it somewhere (in Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-24080976045359063862009-12-29T17:44:21.215-08:002009-12-29T17:44:21.215-08:00Another thought: If I were Putin, I would know tha...Another thought: If I were Putin, I would know that my survival is tied to oil revenues.<br />A Putin operative would regard it as ethical, moral and patriotic to game the NYMEX. It would ne unpatriotic not to try--and perhaps fatal.<br />At the least, we must anticipate that sovereign entities would try to game the NYMEX--it is in their interest to do so, and law means nothing to them. <br />Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-50326348557736695152009-12-29T16:30:34.544-08:002009-12-29T16:30:34.544-08:00Scott-
Well, not sure about oil.
As stated (I am s...Scott-<br />Well, not sure about oil.<br />As stated (I am sure you know this), oil demand is medium-term inelastic.<br />If traders game the price higher on the NYMEX, that is what businesses and consumers will pay, for now.<br />I buy the same amount of gasoline at $2 a gallon and $4 a gallon, for the next year or two. Then, I buy a new car. <br />Writ small, I just described global demand for Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-7696792364088207312009-12-29T15:23:39.508-08:002009-12-29T15:23:39.508-08:00Scott,
It appears that commodity prices are risin...Scott,<br /><br />It appears that commodity prices are rising on the margin but shipments are falling if rail employment is any indication...the transport vehicle for commodities.<br /><br />Seems sorta strange that Buffett's BN is shedding the most jobs.<br /><br /><b>Rail Jobs Sink to New Low</b><br /><br /><i>Mid-November U.S. workforce down 1,923 from month earlier <br />The U.S. lines ofalstryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16025398896639165994noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-13525894662482787842009-12-29T15:04:40.368-08:002009-12-29T15:04:40.368-08:00I am no stranger to devalued currencies. I have a ...I am no stranger to devalued currencies. I have a bundle of 1 million peso notes from Argentina, and a friend recently gave me a 1 billion dollar Zimbabwe note. Great collectors' items!<br /><br />If there is one statistic that all but assures that a deflationary scenario is very unlikely, it would be the weak dollar. Deflations usually require significant currency appreciation relative to Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-50233523550908731292009-12-29T14:25:56.371-08:002009-12-29T14:25:56.371-08:00We'll have to agree to disagree on inflation (...We'll have to agree to disagree on inflation (isn't it funny how the inflation vs deflation thing really has become like a religion or your favourite sports team?? you become so blinded to the other sides POV!!)....but hoping we dont get to here.... http://moneytipcentral.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/03/zim-dollars-toilet-paper.jpgThe Lab-Rathttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07536760477782772549noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-45269150297823056072009-12-29T14:25:36.848-08:002009-12-29T14:25:36.848-08:00Benjamin: I've commented before on the issue o...Benjamin: I've commented before on the issue of how significant commodity speculation is to commodity prices. I'm sure that speculators account for some of the increase, but not the bulk of it. To speculate in commodities you have to effectively buy them and store them. To think that virtually every single commodity in the world is being stockpiled like crazy is a stretch for me. Lots of Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-31716300035854500722009-12-29T14:09:46.524-08:002009-12-29T14:09:46.524-08:00Lab-Rat: how can you say that inflation pressures ...Lab-Rat: how can you say that inflation pressures are non-existent? What about these charts of commodity prices? And gold prices? <br /><br />As for my style, I am definitely a qualitative analyst, not a quant by any stretch. I'll take common sense any day over equations.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-13885307980926448922009-12-29T13:45:06.010-08:002009-12-29T13:45:06.010-08:00PS..and this is NOT a criticism, merely an observa...PS..and this is NOT a criticism, merely an observation but it strikes me there is little or no quantitative reasoning to your work...it always comes across as qualitative economics of common sense...would you say that is fair or do you do lots of quanty stuff behind the scenes and we only enjoy the logical presentation of your top-level themes and ideas?The Lab-Rathttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07536760477782772549noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-55348496481859156832009-12-29T13:39:29.879-08:002009-12-29T13:39:29.879-08:00It is amazing how rapidly sentiment has shifted fr...It is amazing how rapidly sentiment has shifted from treasury love to treasury hate...it's all so obvious now...obviously. Where are the David Rosenbergs and 100 other sell-side genius guys who were saying all day every day 'Get long, yields with a 2 handle at year end'? Now its all so obvious to everyone that yields are heading to 5%...forget we are in the midst of the biggest The Lab-Rathttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07536760477782772549noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-9616152153531020362009-12-29T09:19:36.993-08:002009-12-29T09:19:36.993-08:00Connect the dots between 2004 and 2010. Inflation ...Connect the dots between 2004 and 2010. Inflation is roaring. <br /><br />It is no wonder that oil producers are leaving oil in the ground. Would it be prudent to pump it and put the money in T bills?Charleshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00607057013050715435noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-62206513871082365762009-12-29T09:10:51.497-08:002009-12-29T09:10:51.497-08:00This is bullish.
But having looked at the NYMEX ...This is bullish. <br />But having looked at the NYMEX closely, we also seem to have "commodity investing" going on. <br />The world is awash in capital, looking for a home. With the advent of commodity funds and other mechanisms to invest in commodities, we can see investors spiking commodities, even as demand is just so-so. <br />The oil markets are a case in point. OPEC is Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.com