tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post5134757535410543785..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: 17 reasons the U.S. is not in recessionScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger13125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-16310275784414818782012-07-13T02:05:16.905-07:002012-07-13T02:05:16.905-07:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.smith johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10133805907010106877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-14675431037258388842012-07-12T11:45:40.763-07:002012-07-12T11:45:40.763-07:00I agree that regular models don't work in this...I agree that regular models don't work in this era. Also, I think ECRI has been right on their call directionally, but the timing was terrible (first recession call was 9/30/11 on both Bloomberg and CNBC). I ran the stock market returns for past ECRI recession calls back to 1970s and in only one case did you come out ahead by selling on the recession start date and buying back on the M Millerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05762326550608359675noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-9601018070934295092012-07-12T10:10:06.844-07:002012-07-12T10:10:06.844-07:00A solid case for no recession, but you seldom see ...A solid case for no recession, but you seldom see it coming:<br /><br />http://modeltstocktrends.blogspot.com/2012/07/feelings-really-bad-feelings.htmlDon Akehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06268533664760244722noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-17355094128948359832012-07-12T05:04:54.208-07:002012-07-12T05:04:54.208-07:00Folks, look at Scott's charts -- the economic ...Folks, look at Scott's charts -- the economic picture those charts paint is gloomy -- people who are "singing in the rain" are nevertheless experiencing a rainy day -- sunny economics will certainly return in the future -- but as of right now, the economic weather is gloomy, plain and simple...McKibbinUSAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10545798495680527622noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-7760296695996033032012-07-12T05:03:11.072-07:002012-07-12T05:03:11.072-07:00This comment has been removed by the author.McKibbinUSAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10545798495680527622noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-90683044344792972352012-07-12T03:03:02.657-07:002012-07-12T03:03:02.657-07:00What Lakshman Achuthan actually wrote and said las...What Lakshman Achuthan actually wrote and said last December was that long leading indicators were predicting that the US would (by later official measurement) be found to have entered recession by the 1st quarter of 2012 or at the latest by mid year. But that most economists per usual would not recognize it because they mostly deal with only coincident or short leading indicators.<br /><br />It Williamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04418491109912775561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-65077554923006278282012-07-11T22:09:14.271-07:002012-07-11T22:09:14.271-07:00randy: Thank you, that is precisely the summary I ...randy: Thank you, that is precisely the summary I would have written had I had more time.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-78730534658229516372012-07-11T22:01:04.596-07:002012-07-11T22:01:04.596-07:00Lakshman Achuthan has called a US recession since ...Lakshman Achuthan has called a US recession since middle of 2011. But GDP is still in the plus. Now he is reiterating his call. Eventually, if he calls for a US recession every year, he will be right.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02798277240041244209noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-6616203931204812312012-07-11T21:44:38.313-07:002012-07-11T21:44:38.313-07:00Grannis makes a compelling case, on whether the US...Grannis makes a compelling case, on whether the USA is in an economic recession or not. We have feeble growth. <br /><br />But is the Fed being "easy"?<br /><br />Only if you think the Bank of Japan is being "easy."<br /><br />We know from Japan that low interest rates are not enough, and that fiscal stimulus is wasteful.<br /><br />Yet that is what we are doing in the USA. WeBenjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-70989908920459739312012-07-11T19:05:19.853-07:002012-07-11T19:05:19.853-07:00Well, Scott has used the post WW II, Standard Mode...Well, Scott has used the post WW II, Standard Model for how recessions develop following the Federal Reserve raising interest rates to slow an OVERHEATED EXPANSION of the US economy.<br /><br />It is of course a phony argument since the FED hasn't raised interest rates to slow an overheated economy - yet the economy is clearing slowing. Down from Scotts - and a few others - earlier Williamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04418491109912775561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-66479651470593407492012-07-11T18:35:06.235-07:002012-07-11T18:35:06.235-07:00Thank you Scott. The recurring message I get from...Thank you Scott. The recurring message I get from your generous posts is that the world is resilient, and though there are real and large risks, there is no reason to bet on the end of the world as we know it. I really appreciate your well reasoned arguments.randyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16368254229927808998noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-22556548841555005942012-07-11T16:04:33.494-07:002012-07-11T16:04:33.494-07:00PS: All of Scott's charts above seem to confir...PS: All of Scott's charts above seem to confirm that the US economy has declined sharply over the past five years -- in fact, the 5-year data reflects a near horrific economic state using a 5-year window -- pessimism is winning, folks -- those without means should remain under cover...McKibbinUSAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10545798495680527622noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-78702408170375907992012-07-11T15:57:24.497-07:002012-07-11T15:57:24.497-07:00The sooner that fiscal and monetary policy can ham...The sooner that fiscal and monetary policy can hammer the US economy into a deep depression, the sooner that we can all buy up more equity bargains -- we live in an economy that was built for accredited investors with a 30-year plus investment horizon -- everyone else should be under cover...McKibbinUSAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10545798495680527622noreply@blogger.com