tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post5096300973299079922..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Pretty good payrollsScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger11125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-47903882172731217742020-03-09T20:07:58.310-07:002020-03-09T20:07:58.310-07:00Steve - you probably already read this, but WSJ ag...Steve - you probably already read this, but WSJ agrees with you:<br /><br />"President Trump has defended Saudi leader Mohammed bin Salman despite his displays of bad judgment or worse. If the crown prince wants to return the favor, now would be the time amid the panic in oil markets after a price war broke out between former cartel partners Russia and Saudi Arabia. How about putting in a randyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16368254229927808998noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-56506436522887245852020-03-09T07:50:08.369-07:002020-03-09T07:50:08.369-07:00Lot's of hiring just in time for a business sl...Lot's of hiring just in time for a business slowdown is NOT good news.<br /><br />China, Italy and other nations are in a "flu recession" where commerce and production has been deliberately slowed / halted until the "flue fear" disappears. <br /><br />Maybe for one month -- maybe a few months.<br /><br />Ordinary strains of the flu kill far more people every winter, yet The Cliff Claven of Financehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13541954550199246606noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-36153941695367687432020-03-09T03:09:43.726-07:002020-03-09T03:09:43.726-07:00Perhaps Saudi Arabia and Russia could have found a...Perhaps Saudi Arabia and Russia could have found a better moment to have a schoolyard fight?stevehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07387986994469835875noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-92091026114130518562020-03-08T15:59:04.005-07:002020-03-08T15:59:04.005-07:00Oil now down "only" 20%. S&P futures...Oil now down "only" 20%. S&P futures down 3.5%. Tomorrow will be ugly. The Fed absolutely needs to keep up with the market and cut rates. Deflationary pressures are starting to erode credit markets, in what appears to be a min-replay of what happened in 2015-2016 as oil prices plunged from $100+ to $30. It's a "demand shock" as virus fears cause people to travel and Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-74757936470655207852020-03-08T15:24:31.943-07:002020-03-08T15:24:31.943-07:00Oil down 30% on Sunday. Dow probably not bottomed...Oil down 30% on Sunday. Dow probably not bottomed quite yet. Here comes the FedJohnny Bee Dawghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06836875640973245734noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-85530260346614874922020-03-08T14:13:32.832-07:002020-03-08T14:13:32.832-07:00Cabodog: Re “I am cautious at this time.”” Well, n...Cabodog: Re “I am cautious at this time.”” Well, nearly everyone is cautious these days. Very cautious! That’s why Treasury yields are so low. <br /><br />I should add that I mistakenly called the bottom for the market in Nov or Dec 2008. In retrospect that was the inflection point, but the actual bottom took a few months to arrive. A few months later I said I thought the economy would hit bottomScott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-49734567913304050192020-03-08T13:34:50.920-07:002020-03-08T13:34:50.920-07:00Scott,
I'm beginning to hear of anecdotal evi...Scott,<br /><br />I'm beginning to hear of anecdotal evidence of a slowdown. An excavation contractor friend of mine mentioned last night that in the last six months he's seen a slowdown; he's gone from employing 18, now down to 5.<br /><br />Another friend is a freight broker; he's seen quite the dropoff in business (I believe his business is brokering LTL shipments).<br /><br />Cabodoghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08299113185481067179noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-38737173288838520422020-03-07T07:51:09.920-08:002020-03-07T07:51:09.920-08:00It's the uncertainty, stupid. Cite the statist...It's the uncertainty, stupid. Cite the statistics about coronavirus all you like. How many of us have been tested? The stats are very rough. Make the case that the younger, more productive members of society will be spared and only the old and sick ones will die. The coronavirus could evolve into something even more virulent. Two strains have now been identified. <br /><br />The idea that theJohnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06365403570563730880noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-40912922861893360582020-03-07T04:14:39.547-08:002020-03-07T04:14:39.547-08:00My son is the director of bioinformatics at a Camb...My son is the director of bioinformatics at a Cambridge, MA biotech firm. Computational biology is the study of biological data so studying the over 100,000 cases of Cvirus is in his wheelhouse. His take so far;<br /><br />-it's true that China seems to have Cvirus under some control as the reports of new cases id dropping rapidly. It's also true that they have basically used martial law stevehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07387986994469835875noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-60073759963843872142020-03-06T22:57:09.086-08:002020-03-06T22:57:09.086-08:00"Census jobs add nothing to the underlying st..."Census jobs add nothing to the underlying strength of the economy."<br /><br />By providing jobs or extra hours to those who lack them it raises consumption in a market that is deficient in consumption. So, it does add something to the economy, at least temporarily.Royhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09325498485905547125noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-77199038638621433242020-03-06T16:33:00.291-08:002020-03-06T16:33:00.291-08:00Hurray for Scott Grannis!
Yes, there were 1,100 c...Hurray for Scott Grannis!<br /><br />Yes, there were 1,100 crew members on the Diamond Princess and the vast majority did not even become ill, and not one died.<br /><br />The crew members ate and lived in common quarters----that is they were not quarantined from other possibly ill crew members. They were held in a ship-prison for weeks in close quarters. It was a real-world experiment (all Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.com