tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post5079549270032157650..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Are falling commodity prices a problem?Scott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-6821728235123942022012-06-22T22:09:52.206-07:002012-06-22T22:09:52.206-07:00And if you search for posts that the commodity dec...And if you search for posts that the commodity decline is a recession warning, you'll find plenty. That's the point... the world, economy, and investing are not black and white.Jakehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07946497592651234440noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-75978026630055066852012-06-22T17:13:30.799-07:002012-06-22T17:13:30.799-07:00"Impact of Commodity Prices on the Consumer&q..."Impact of Commodity Prices on the Consumer", from Bespoke Investment Group. The softness in the world economy benefits the U.S. consumer via a stronger dollar with lower commodity prices.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2012/6/22/impact-of-commodity-prices-on-the-consumer.html" rel="nofollow">Impact of Commodity Prices on the Consumer</a>sgt.red.blue.redhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08132657702786638326noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-50857673949696287742012-06-22T04:40:36.819-07:002012-06-22T04:40:36.819-07:00I seem to recall that commodities are rising, you ...I seem to recall that commodities are rising, you always use it as a proof the the global economy is growing and healthy. But when they are dropping, you always call it a correction not reflecting weakening of the economy.<br /><br />Where's the consistency in that?Pragmatic Investorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08952759176339628535noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-74048366461479409292012-06-21T19:38:40.455-07:002012-06-21T19:38:40.455-07:00Which is all good and fine, but you have so many l...Which is all good and fine, but you have so many loyal readers and speak with such certainty that I'm concerned you may be leading those too reliant on you (vs their own analysis) off a cliff. Take JC Penney as one example. You mention the stores are improving and boom... readers mention they are building a position.Jakehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07946497592651234440noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-25334745932512072802012-06-21T19:31:22.766-07:002012-06-21T19:31:22.766-07:00Housing was just one example. Short term trends se...Housing was just one example. Short term trends seem to matter when they support your thesis. Long term trends when they support your thesis.Jakehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07946497592651234440noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-72710468245840536582012-06-21T19:25:41.218-07:002012-06-21T19:25:41.218-07:00The bulk of gold demand is generated in India and ...The bulk of gold demand is generated in India and China, in the form of gifts. I think I missed a long-term investment pop not anticipating middle-class demand in those nations for gold.<br /><br />US monetary policy not really connected to gold prices anymore. Both China and India have relatively aggressive or bullish monetary policies, and both nations generating middle and upper classes with Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-12113547788897359732012-06-21T12:54:34.889-07:002012-06-21T12:54:34.889-07:00I don't think it's inconsistent at all. Th...I don't think it's inconsistent at all. The long-term picture of the housing market is that real prices are now back to levels that seem fairly normal, while new construction has been extremely low for many years. Prices have returned to market-clearing levels, and the huge drop in construction has helped reduce housing inventory. Both are very natural processes that have repeated Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-25381205204288244082012-06-21T12:45:16.329-07:002012-06-21T12:45:16.329-07:00I'm curious why you look at the long term for ...I'm curious why you look at the long term for commodities (i.e. your view in this post that despite the recent drop, commodities are much higher than where they were ten years ago) and the short term for housing, autos, production, etc... when the recent rise looks like a blip in the overall fall we've seen over the past ten years?<br /><br />A recent example of the latter: http://Jakehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07946497592651234440noreply@blogger.com