tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post44353612166666495..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Bye Bye MiseryScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger35125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-5819124719652550712019-06-06T02:19:01.236-07:002019-06-06T02:19:01.236-07:00SantaMedical is the Manufacturer and Bestseller in...SantaMedical is the Manufacturer and Bestseller in the United States for <a href="https://santamedical.com" rel="nofollow"> Portable healthcare Products </a> on All marketplace.SantaMedicalhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13838247875725919875noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-12032449502928500202019-05-17T15:37:47.201-07:002019-05-17T15:37:47.201-07:00Back around 2009, Bernanke and Geitner did much to...Back around 2009, Bernanke and Geitner did much to repair the economy. The trend they established continues - except for the recent rise in the budget deficit. http://bonddad.blogspot.com/2018/08/how-close-are-we-to-employment.html<br />Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06365403570563730880noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-60359403363574618812019-05-13T02:55:21.531-07:002019-05-13T02:55:21.531-07:00Mark, that's correct. Since the end of WW II, ...Mark, that's correct. Since the end of WW II, the largest share of after-tax income held by the bottom 80 percent was in 1953 at 57.4 percent. It declined after that to a minimum of 40.1 percent in 2007. In 2016 it was 41.7 percent.<br /><br />In 2016 the top 20 percent had 61.7 percent of the gross income, paid 82.3 percent of all income taxes, and had 58.3 percent of the after-tax income.<Ron Grunerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03824733166872110026noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-30240481475564982432019-05-12T19:19:48.872-07:002019-05-12T19:19:48.872-07:00Thank Ron. Using 1960 as the base year, it looks l...Thank Ron. Using 1960 as the base year, it looks like the net (income after tax) share of the USA economic pie has shrunk for the bottom 80% and grown significantly for the top 20%.Mark Gerberhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07980096984624964261noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-71878119991358466132019-05-12T09:48:05.032-07:002019-05-12T09:48:05.032-07:00Mark, I've just posted three charts at...
htt...Mark, I've just posted three charts at...<br /><br /><a rel="nofollow">http://gruner.com/d/calafiabeachpundit/income_distribution.html</a><br /><br />which show gross income, income taxes paid and after-tax income by quintile from 1920 through 2016. Ron Grunerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03824733166872110026noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-77161573280898352982019-05-12T06:48:08.044-07:002019-05-12T06:48:08.044-07:00Nice post on how the USA economic pie has grown an...Nice post on how the USA economic pie has grown and everyone's slice is bigger. Absent, though, is analysis on changes in slicing the pie. Isn't the personal share, real or perceived, at the core of the populous vote?Mark Gerberhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07980096984624964261noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-51251427744987383902019-05-12T06:09:38.210-07:002019-05-12T06:09:38.210-07:00Scott,
You believe that the expense of healthcare...Scott,<br /><br />You believe that the expense of healthcare is caused by excessive government management. However, this theory is contradicted by the fact that healthcare is both more heavily managed by government and cheaper in the rest of the developed world. The tired conservative cliche that big government is responsible for all the world's problems causes you to miss the mark.Ianhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14639267999660217122noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-44885123144241620582019-05-12T05:56:36.753-07:002019-05-12T05:56:36.753-07:00One of the best explainers of MMT that I've co...One of the best explainers of MMT that I've come across is here: http://neweconomicperspectives.org/2019/04/how-far-can-we-push-this-thing-some-optimistic-reflections-on-the-potential-for-economic-experimentation.html<br /><br />The author argues that, given the amount of slack in the economy, we could ramp up deficit spending to 8.8% of GDP without causing inflation. Doing so would cause GDPIanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14639267999660217122noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-6493567855243947062019-05-12T05:47:12.737-07:002019-05-12T05:47:12.737-07:00I have a Masters in Chemistry and 21 years experie...I have a Masters in Chemistry and 21 years experience in the field, but now I work as a truck driver because I can't get any other job. Something is wrong. I think China is taking all the jobs it can and wants America to become nothing more than a consumer.Bryonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02712221999184674232noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-21769605782609481462019-05-12T01:40:38.343-07:002019-05-12T01:40:38.343-07:00Randy-- I am hardly the global scholar, but I am s...Randy-- I am hardly the global scholar, but I am still puzzling over MMT and helicopter drops. I think I prefer a limited amount of helicopter drops to heavy federal borrowing.<br /><br />By the way, Ray Dalio also forecast long-term Treasury Bonds hit 0% interest at some point in the future. If true, then holding T-bonds is not such a bad investment.Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-56785147619983232502019-05-11T20:08:01.508-07:002019-05-11T20:08:01.508-07:00Ben
Well said. And you're absolute right, MM...Ben<br /><br />Well said. And you're absolute right, MMT has been EQUATED with central bank-financed socialist deficit spending, but that's not at all what it means.<br /><br />James Montier's piece was really helpful, as well as Dalio's, in helping me understand that it's a different way to look at the interaction of monetary and fiscal policy (and how the public sector is Kevinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07277090206703708583noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-13700403400279352572019-05-11T19:42:08.704-07:002019-05-11T19:42:08.704-07:00Randy--
I would not dismiss MMT to easily. It has...Randy--<br /><br />I would not dismiss MMT to easily. It has been horribly packaged as paper-money financing of a boondoggle Green New Deal run by socialists. Yikes! (Although I wish my conservative friends would take similar umbrage at $7 trillion spent on counterproductive wars in Afghanistan an Iraq, all financed by printing money). <br /><br />A smarter version of MMT is money-financed tax Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-14763576231990999312019-05-11T15:20:38.112-07:002019-05-11T15:20:38.112-07:00Kevin re historical context. See this post of mine...Kevin re historical context. See this post of mine from a few years ago re tax and income shares. The rich have been paying more and more of total taxes over the years: https://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2016/06/our-very-progressive-tax-code.htmlScott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-76132094776750906062019-05-11T15:19:39.105-07:002019-05-11T15:19:39.105-07:00Ron, re “something’s not right.” One important det...Ron, re “something’s not right.” One important detail might explain it: the data you cite is for total income taxes, whereas my chart is for total federal taxes (income plus social security plus corporate plus capital gains, etc.)Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-995338730541747672019-05-11T12:25:59.730-07:002019-05-11T12:25:59.730-07:00Sergio, here's the latest income tax data for ...Sergio, here's the latest income tax data for 2016 tabulated from... https://www.irs.gov/statistics/soi-tax-stats-individual-statistical-tables-by-size-of-adjusted-gross-income<br /><br />Quintile Gross Income Taxes Paid After Tax Income<br />1 213.1 (2.1%) 1.4 (0.1%) 211.7 (2.4%)<br />2 595.4 (5.8%) 15.7 (1.1%) 579.7 (6.6%)<brRon Grunerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03824733166872110026noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-16947334864493445112019-05-11T03:55:34.660-07:002019-05-11T03:55:34.660-07:00PS: other than that I agree with your general poin...PS: other than that I agree with your general point that standards of living have been improving significantly for the vast majority of the population.SergioThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06587105277967281761noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-51139200070510698842019-05-11T03:53:03.368-07:002019-05-11T03:53:03.368-07:00Scott, I love your analysis but I think the last c...Scott, I love your analysis but I think the last chart - and its interpretation - is a bit misleading. It would be much more fair to compare the amount of taxes paid by each quintile in relationship to their income or net worth.. or a mix of the two.SergioThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06587105277967281761noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-15776344783229392902019-05-10T12:09:53.868-07:002019-05-10T12:09:53.868-07:00These are pretty misleading graphs.
While a fla...These are pretty misleading graphs. <br /><br />While a flat screen TV is more affordable, what % of median income does that represent? 0.5%? Clearly cost savings there don't fall hardly at all to the bottom line. Your chart doesn't show at all the relative share of income for durable vs non-durable vs services. If durable has become a much smaller share of income, again the Kevinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07277090206703708583noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-90476444556158231222019-05-10T10:30:54.153-07:002019-05-10T10:30:54.153-07:00Kman, re "healthcare should be more prominent...Kman, re "healthcare should be more prominent in the stats you pointed out"<br /><br />Good point. But after checking, I find that the PCE deflator for healthcare spending is substantially similar to that of the overall PCE services deflator. Since 1995, in fact, healthcare inflation (by this measure) has actually been about 6% less than services in general, and almost all of that Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-16043951362486206062019-05-10T08:57:55.247-07:002019-05-10T08:57:55.247-07:00It's scary to see smart people like Dalio say ...It's scary to see smart people like Dalio say something like this "Modern Monetary Theory is one of those infinite number of configurations that is in my opinion inevitable". Seems like financial alchemy. Even Paul Krugman had to tsk tsk the notion. I'm way too unstudied to really know, but a basic law that you can't make something from nothing would seem to apply.<br /><brrandyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16368254229927808998noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-80916652538251800502019-05-10T05:09:17.521-07:002019-05-10T05:09:17.521-07:00Note to anyone. I guess Ray Dalio is well-known, a...Note to anyone. I guess Ray Dalio is well-known, and runs the world's largest hedge fund. <br /><br />https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/its-time-look-more-carefully-monetary-policy-3-mp3-modern-ray-dalio/<br /><br />It looks like he is calling for fiscal and monetary stimulus going forward...maybe helicopter drops. <br /><br />No dought this is heresy to many. I dunno. <br /><br />If helicopter Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-75030635341651666602019-05-10T04:34:07.931-07:002019-05-10T04:34:07.931-07:00Looks like our illustrious POTUS is doing his best...Looks like our illustrious POTUS is doing his best to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. If China plays hardball, this could get nasty in a hurry. stevehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07387986994469835875noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-13591643897088936032019-05-10T04:18:10.020-07:002019-05-10T04:18:10.020-07:00I spent 10 years in thailand. No public pension or...I spent 10 years in thailand. No public pension or government healthcare program... the cost of hospital still can break household budget... i fully agree with you scott... but the price of education and healthcare are probably driven high by another cause than weak competition and stupid public left side peopleAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12884939736083010756noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-1563049237479313402019-05-10T01:32:09.078-07:002019-05-10T01:32:09.078-07:00Thanks for the info Scott. I read Hans Roslings bo...Thanks for the info Scott. I read Hans Roslings book factfullness a couple months ago and it echoed similar sentiments, especially with regards to the developing world.<br /><br />My thoughts; <br />1. healthcare should be more prominent in the stats you pointed out. <br />2. The rest of the world is upncoming, which means there will be disruptions for the current <br /> order of things. ChinaKmanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13486509536114426115noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-50817631500347981112019-05-09T18:38:46.307-07:002019-05-09T18:38:46.307-07:00Randy--- love the zoning comment. Not a PC topic, ...Randy--- love the zoning comment. Not a PC topic, but property zoning is the largest structural impediment in America today. Sheesh, there are scholars at the Mercatus Center, part of George Mason, that say property zoning allows all household income gains and more to be sucked into property owner pockets---economic rent, as validated by socialist government property zoning.<br /><br />Even the Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.com