tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post4398307393904221910..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Market pessimism is distorting the factsScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-31148435951037528892010-08-15T09:53:44.839-07:002010-08-15T09:53:44.839-07:00It is cause for concern because it is a reflection...It is cause for concern because it is a reflection of the fact that the pace of recovery is sub-par. Even with 3-4% growth, it will take us a very long time to recover to "full-employment" levels.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-44889612166269588722010-08-14T14:21:42.915-07:002010-08-14T14:21:42.915-07:00Does the level of 484k cause you any concern given...Does the level of 484k cause you any concern given that these are usually levels seen during past recessionary periods?Jason and Jenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14143998074900505152noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-6533722186964762802010-08-12T10:07:39.772-07:002010-08-12T10:07:39.772-07:00OT, but timely:
Scott--
I notice you have a Tea Pa...OT, but timely:<br />Scott--<br />I notice you have a Tea Party link on your website. I have been watching the Tea Party with deep interest, but I concede fading hopes.<br /><br />There is a long cover story on Nevada Tea Party candidate Sharon Angle (Nevada Tea Party candidate against Harry Reid) on cover of today's LA Times.<br /><br />Maybe the article is biased. Still, there is much Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-24230955360622526642010-08-12T09:30:00.801-07:002010-08-12T09:30:00.801-07:00gp: I think you're right--the ups and downs we...gp: I think you're right--the ups and downs we are seeing currently are to be expected even during the expansion phase of the business cycle. But I don't think the latest data are influenced by the extension of emergency benefits. That has shown up as a 1 million rise in those receiving emergency benefits (separate from the weekly initial claims).Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-42167881899560125562010-08-12T09:24:00.962-07:002010-08-12T09:24:00.962-07:00Scott,
Great safari pictures! What I take away fr...Scott,<br /><br />Great safari pictures! What I take away from the 2nd chart is that in past years after the peak of claims, there were several upward blips in claims. It looks like 92-93 and also 2002-2004. This time may be no different and is such part of the normal cycle.<br /><br />The troubling aspect of the top chart is that the peaks of claims appear to have been sloping downward throughgp1093mphttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15162323412654131023noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-52189961449564840982010-08-12T09:19:06.912-07:002010-08-12T09:19:06.912-07:00On the margin, unemployment is heading the wrong d...On the margin, unemployment is heading the wrong direction. You could probably add a northward pointing arrow to the chart.Public Libraryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00017383928897945054noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-87188752229796484532010-08-12T09:03:45.595-07:002010-08-12T09:03:45.595-07:00I had some disappointment today with jobless claim...I had some disappointment today with jobless claims because I hoped the NSA number (420,000) would get close to recent NSA lows in May of 394,000. Seasonally we need to see this number break 394,000 and move lower before the<br />seasonal rise in NSA jobless claims picks up in the fall.broderohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12296214283216386700noreply@blogger.com