tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post4382043357053644300..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Record-low mortgage rates don't signal a weak housing marketScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger22125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-1278356891996914032011-01-10T04:06:11.248-08:002011-01-10T04:06:11.248-08:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.נועם קוריסhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13208306689066073504noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-22943770216075930492010-09-05T23:21:10.498-07:002010-09-05T23:21:10.498-07:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.joni_123https://www.blogger.com/profile/04442101462968996508noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-67861616962385010192010-08-12T22:53:07.518-07:002010-08-12T22:53:07.518-07:00I really think deflation is deadly to investors. A...I really think deflation is deadly to investors. And the market is not even that attentive. <br /><a href="http://www.approvedinvictoria.com" rel="nofollow">Victoria Mortgage Brokers</a>Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-45986258735113428752010-08-11T06:52:48.620-07:002010-08-11T06:52:48.620-07:00The market is not paying much attention...it is to...The market is not paying much attention...it is too fixated on deflation, doubledip, unemployment, etc. but two companys dependent upon consumer discretionary spending (Disney and Macys) both reported excellent quarterly financials. It appears there is more spending going on than many are willing to concede. <br /><br />We get Cisco after the close. It will tell us something about business Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11652253509768573561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-8861575667761160232010-08-10T16:34:58.131-07:002010-08-10T16:34:58.131-07:00Pub,
I think rolling out of bonds into dividend p...Pub,<br /><br />I think rolling out of bonds into dividend paying stocks is a good idea. The trend is still young but it is, I believe, a trend. <br /><br />See verizon (VZ) and AT&T (T). Also, Pepsi (PEP), Coca Cola(KO), and utilities Southern Co. (SO) and Teco (TE). Also pharma...see Pfizer (PFE) and Novartis (NVS) among others. All these charts show strong accumulation. It appears to me Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11652253509768573561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-85935799076983214212010-08-10T10:34:01.606-07:002010-08-10T10:34:01.606-07:00I am slowly rolling out of bonds into value/divide...I am slowly rolling out of bonds into value/dividend stocks but adding VIX for insurance purposes.<br /><br />I have a feeling Bernanke's DNA is baked with loads of inflation cake in it. Short-term pop, long-term disaster.Public Libraryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00017383928897945054noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-84916073980745671902010-08-10T09:53:23.506-07:002010-08-10T09:53:23.506-07:00I agree with Scott.
In my opinion, Japan continu...I agree with Scott. <br /><br />In my opinion, Japan continues to fight deflation with every tool possible but the effort only perpetuates the mis-allocation of capital throughtout the economy.<br /><br />Deflation only hurts the debtors who financed their activities hoping inflation would continue.<br /><br />However, those who are not indebted benefit + stand to takeover the means of productionPublic Libraryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00017383928897945054noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-59002506549547495812010-08-10T09:37:36.825-07:002010-08-10T09:37:36.825-07:00Benjamin: I would caution that correlation does no...Benjamin: I would caution that correlation does not imply causation. Is deflation really the cause of Japan's sluggish growth and the miserable performance of the stock market? I don't think that's an obvious conclusion. There are other factors, such as fiscal policy, demographics, and culture, that could account for the poor performance of Japan's economy over the past two Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-43028629543972425762010-08-10T09:25:35.958-07:002010-08-10T09:25:35.958-07:00Pub-
Oh boy, I disagree on deflation.
I think d...Pub-<br /><br />Oh boy, I disagree on deflation. <br /><br />I think deflation is deadly to investors, and not just for a few years, but for two decades and counting-see Japan.<br /><br />Property values down 75 percent in 20 years, and also the Nikkei Dow down 75 percent in 20 years. <br /><br />In the USA, small businesses rely on collateral for loans--that means property. When property Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-91447834258513410352010-08-10T08:32:59.562-07:002010-08-10T08:32:59.562-07:00And for Benj:
"the dangers of deflation are ...And for Benj:<br /><br />"the dangers of deflation are chimerical, but its charms are very real." Inflation, on the other hand, only helps those who are massively indebted and inefficient — governments.Public Libraryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00017383928897945054noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-59272913931174738952010-08-10T08:24:20.744-07:002010-08-10T08:24:20.744-07:00Love this piece. Deflation is exactly what the eco...Love this piece. Deflation is exactly what the economy needs to completely eradicate the mal-investment. The longer the government tries to fight it, the longer the struggle to right the ship will be.<br /><br />"Just as inflation is generally popular for its narcotic effect, deflation is always highly unpopular for the opposite reason. The contraction of money is visible; the benefits to Public Libraryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00017383928897945054noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-22035422139295350092010-08-10T07:48:46.860-07:002010-08-10T07:48:46.860-07:00"If this is indeed viable, what would be some..."If this is indeed viable, what would be some investment/speculative ideas on how to participate?"<br /><br />john, i have seen people argue to bet on water, whether pio (etf for international water utilities mostly) or lnn (a nice little ag irrigation company) based on the dynamics of brics etc moving up the food chain...but i think this is a second derivative bet that requires you to Christian S. Herzeca, Esq.https://www.blogger.com/profile/09913237226503475709noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-28223511411896214532010-08-10T07:34:01.684-07:002010-08-10T07:34:01.684-07:00Don,
I am/have been interested in the idea of sof...Don,<br /><br />I am/have been interested in the idea of soft commodities being a fund destination. The recent wheat crop failures in Russia have reinforced my suspicion that demand for protein rich food in emerging markets is a long term trend worth keeping an eye on. <br /><br />If this is indeed viable, what would be some investment/speculative ideas on how to participate?Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11652253509768573561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-61735514895520170172010-08-10T07:18:57.459-07:002010-08-10T07:18:57.459-07:00I don't mind Pub at all Don.
I am torn about ...I don't mind Pub at all Don.<br /><br />I am torn about what to do. There is a lot of bearishness out there. However, I think the Japanese scenario is definitely in play unlike Mr Grannis.Public Libraryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00017383928897945054noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-51925645830976407182010-08-09T20:09:30.837-07:002010-08-09T20:09:30.837-07:00Pub,
You don't mine if I call you pub do you? ...Pub,<br />You don't mine if I call you pub do you? Agree completely. Any thoughts on whats next? Probably commodities as that bubble seemed so unsatisfying the first time.Don Halldinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15378500522884917656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-78783748730669283862010-08-09T19:26:51.814-07:002010-08-09T19:26:51.814-07:00Don, I agree another bubble is on its way. However...Don, I agree another bubble is on its way. However, once a massive bubble pops, that asset class does not reign supreme the very next bubble.<br /><br />In my opinion, real estate is a dead asset class...in the US, GB, ES, PT, GR, IR etc etc.Public Libraryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00017383928897945054noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-2125236501287359662010-08-09T18:49:54.791-07:002010-08-09T18:49:54.791-07:00Benji, John, Pub,
I would side with John in this o...Benji, John, Pub,<br />I would side with John in this one. Investors will, I believe, move the trillions of excess capital into the fastest appreciating assets once the movement of pricing has been going on long enough to be modestly convincing. Any story will do. Remember Dot Com, R/E, Commodities from 1996-2008 we had three enormous asset bubbles. To me they were merely extensions of the same Don Halldinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15378500522884917656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-21754659178758804422010-08-09T16:36:51.820-07:002010-08-09T16:36:51.820-07:00The winds of change blew in 2008. Time for you fol...The winds of change blew in 2008. Time for you folks to read the tea leaves. The party is over and the downtrend in prices and psychology over housing is firmly entrenched for a generation.<br /><br />Case-Shiller is heading south second half of this year. There is no need to buy real estate when you can find it at a cheaper price in the future.<br /><br />We will repeat that mantra for a decade.Public Libraryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00017383928897945054noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-28415002138164612192010-08-09T16:20:07.089-07:002010-08-09T16:20:07.089-07:00John-
From your lips to God's ears.John-<br /><br />From your lips to God's ears.Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-40817488226435222232010-08-09T15:53:42.637-07:002010-08-09T15:53:42.637-07:00Benj, Somewhere, sometime, all that capital is goi...Benj, Somewhere, sometime, all that capital is going to be looking for a return. It won't find it is treasuries (which I think are a decent short) and it won't find it in corporate bonds (unless they are lower rated ones). Sometime soon it will be seeking high quality stocks and real estate. When the worm turns, the crowd will stampede. For a long time it has seemed like it will never Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11652253509768573561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-77874338323850695382010-08-09T14:46:54.118-07:002010-08-09T14:46:54.118-07:00As low as real interest rates seem now, it may be ...As low as real interest rates seem now, it may be they go even lower.<br />What does it mean when the globe accumulates more capital every year than can be suitably invested? <br /><br />Economists say there is no such thing as gluts or shortages--only a price that rations the supply. <br /><br />To me, that suggests we see home mortgages at 3+ percent in the future. US Treasuries at 2 percent orBenjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-8477819635618139772010-08-09T14:45:35.955-07:002010-08-09T14:45:35.955-07:00The banking industry has been releasing loan loss ...The banking industry has been releasing loan loss reserves. It is happening industry wide, not just in isolated pockets. The banks see prices firming and stable demand. It is not concievable to me that they would reduce their loss reserves if AT LEAST this were the case. <br /><br />Banks had a 'come to Jesus' time very recently when their survival was in serious doubt. These are not the Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11652253509768573561noreply@blogger.com