tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post4360196401465338469..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Argentine inflation lessons for the U.S.Scott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger55125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-44464406140343364332021-07-21T16:43:42.184-07:002021-07-21T16:43:42.184-07:00Carl: you left out some key facts.
The 70s were ...Carl: you left out some key facts. <br /><br />The 70s were dominated by the devaluation of the dollar (vs gold), a surge in oil, real estate, and commodity prices and quite a few years of high and rising inflation (which peaked in 1981/82 at double-digit levels). There was every reason to think that inflation would continue. I went to work for the Claremont Economics Institute in 1981 and we Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-59514296261636265982021-07-14T10:55:05.530-07:002021-07-14T10:55:05.530-07:00Scott, I wrote a comment that was very critical o...Scott, I wrote a comment that was very critical of the lockdowns and Fauci's non stop lying spree.<br /><br />There were no products mentioned, no advertising, no companies.<br /><br />Just that lying turd bureaucrat Fauci who wrecked so many mom and pop businesses, destroyed trillions off the US GDP, and led to thousands of deaths -- I'm talking about all the medical treatments and HDXhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01769249455015381260noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-47153938615447836312021-07-13T11:24:26.288-07:002021-07-13T11:24:26.288-07:00The inflation numbers released today support the t...The inflation numbers released today support the thesis of developing inflation.<br />But what if this is peaking inflation from the recent binge in collective debt?<br /><br />"The prevailing view in the late 1970s was that U.S. and world inflation<br />rates would accelerate. Some analysts predicted that the gold price would<br />increase to $2,500 an ounce; the forecasters in the oil Carlhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01792779708580094262noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-13924166310653342482021-07-12T12:10:32.908-07:002021-07-12T12:10:32.908-07:00@HDX: Every now and then I purge comments which ar...@HDX: Every now and then I purge comments which are obviously either spam or free-riding ads for some company or product. (About one fourth to one third of the comments I receive on my posts fit this category, and so I purge then to keep the comments section free of clutter.) It's likely that one or more of your comments were inadvertently selected by me for deletion. If so, I apologize for Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-50131131747348550792021-07-12T12:03:52.253-07:002021-07-12T12:03:52.253-07:00@Ataraxia: In theory, a gold standard can work des...@Ataraxia: In theory, a gold standard can work despite there being a fixed and/or limited supply of gold backing it up. It can work because it requires the government to expand or contract the supply of money whenever the price of gold falls below or rises above the pegged price.<br /><br />For example, let's say the US decides to implement a gold standard by pegging the price of gold at $Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-44979939805004379112021-07-11T20:32:39.259-07:002021-07-11T20:32:39.259-07:00^The idea behind the gold standard was to prevent ...^The idea behind the gold standard was to prevent governments from entering a deflationary debt trap (...) and/or from considering MMT as a viable monetary policy.<br />The growing debt remains tied to the future taxation capacity (which is the effective equivalent of the gold standard) which is great but not unlimited and it's not a free lunch.<br />We've entered uncharted waters and Carlhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01792779708580094262noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-15071506815750941282021-07-11T18:34:25.759-07:002021-07-11T18:34:25.759-07:00@Carl
Thank you for the excellent reply. I'm...@Carl<br /><br />Thank you for the excellent reply. I'm trying to understand why some people and economists believe the gold standard to be a sort of panacea as a monetary system. I'm still hung up on how a fixed supply of anything backing currency can accommodate ever increasing aggregate supply. Ataraxiahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06890889962572151036noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-14550749596851190722021-07-11T17:26:10.752-07:002021-07-11T17:26:10.752-07:00"Gold standard solves relative currency price..."Gold standard solves relative currency price fluctuations by providing an immutable peg. But how does a fixed supply of gold keep up with expanding aggregate supply? Isn't it deflationary?"<br />Even during periods of a strong gold standard, price stability was not a feature.<br />You are playing with two variables in an equation that contains many. In theory, if gold production Carlhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01792779708580094262noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-75998070091504020912021-07-11T05:15:20.041-07:002021-07-11T05:15:20.041-07:00Another comment of mine was mysteriously deleted.....Another comment of mine was mysteriously deleted... not deleted by author (which gets marked as such)... the comment was just completely deleted.<br /><br />I'm sure Scott is going to claim "technical difficulties" to explain why some comments stay posted and others are marked deleted by author and some are just wiped from existence.<br /><br />If you believe that, perhaps you mightHDXhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01769249455015381260noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-3484744199690982542021-07-10T08:43:40.922-07:002021-07-10T08:43:40.922-07:00Scott-
On inflation and the gold standard. Gold ...Scott-<br /><br />On inflation and the gold standard. Gold standard solves relative currency price fluctuations by providing an immutable peg. But how does a fixed supply of gold keep up with expanding aggregate supply? Isn't it deflationary? Ataraxiahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06890889962572151036noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-26389010582355784342021-07-10T05:15:35.784-07:002021-07-10T05:15:35.784-07:00"New Daily Deaths 7 day average for Missouri ..."New Daily Deaths 7 day average for Missouri thru July 7....ZERO"<br />Your interpretation of the recent worldmeter data is incorrect.<br />Also see the Missouri public health website referred to above.<br />Also look at the their recent hospitalization pattern (Missouri, by age group etc):<br />https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#new-hospital-admissions<br />Because of Carlhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01792779708580094262noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-55430927230154805582021-07-09T16:15:58.986-07:002021-07-09T16:15:58.986-07:00New Daily Deaths 7 day average for Missouri thru ...New Daily Deaths 7 day average for Missouri thru July 7....ZERO<br />ZERO DAILY DEATHS is not much of a "hot spot", despite what the media says.<br /><br />https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/MissouriJohnny Bee Dawghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06836875640973245734noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-46829926918578822632021-07-09T07:33:11.156-07:002021-07-09T07:33:11.156-07:00I recommend Dr. Monica Gandhi, MD, MPH for well re...I recommend Dr. Monica Gandhi, MD, MPH for well reasoned analysis of the effectiveness of the vaccines against the variants. She has the credentials, experience with viruses and wisdom that most of the talking heads lack. According to Dr. Gandhi, the production of T cells and Memory B cells provides effective protection against serious illness and death, possibly for life. I also believe Fredhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16903149440854167071noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-83408934987868000422021-07-09T07:27:46.657-07:002021-07-09T07:27:46.657-07:00This comment has been removed by the author.HDXhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01769249455015381260noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-59752408009314760102021-07-09T05:34:49.116-07:002021-07-09T05:34:49.116-07:00"The scam continues. Ignore data, and then la..."The scam continues. Ignore data, and then laugh at my words."<br />Your post is not all wrong and one has to wonder which thought process prism you use in order to formulate conclusions.<br />Your Missouri assessment does not appear to fit with official numbers.<br />Covid deaths have been occurring in Missouri and are expected to rise with a typical lag given their rising Carlhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01792779708580094262noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-4421914227870961872021-07-08T20:22:47.165-07:002021-07-08T20:22:47.165-07:00Couldn't care less about any "variant&quo...Couldn't care less about any "variant".<br />Mutating viruses are less virulent. Every time.<br />The scam continues. Ignore data, and then laugh at my words.<br /><br />My church has been meeting in person for well over a year....spreading natural immunity upon the globe.<br />Singing. Hugging. Close contact. Masks non-existent. Zero Covid deaths<br />Everybody of our massiveJohnny Bee Dawghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06836875640973245734noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-79052028338005583852021-07-08T19:32:18.063-07:002021-07-08T19:32:18.063-07:00" And as far as I can see, the Delta variant ..." And as far as I can see, the Delta variant is not causing more than a very mild increase in cases and virtually no increases in deaths. Virus wisdom has always held that the more contagious a virus, the less lethal it is. So I'm not worried about the Delta variant."<br /><br />i would say you are directionally correct but some nuances are necessary. The new variants, especially Carlhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01792779708580094262noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-76140896617481046552021-07-08T19:31:58.488-07:002021-07-08T19:31:58.488-07:00"What I've tried to make clear here is th..."What I've tried to make clear here is that in the meantime they have created powerful incentives for people to NOT hold the existing supply of M2. That has the effect of increasing the velocity of money (money becomes a hot potato because it is losing value daily due to inflation). So they have set in motion forces that are working in the opposite direction of what you propose."<brCarlhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01792779708580094262noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-50250717838230611842021-07-08T19:07:03.890-07:002021-07-08T19:07:03.890-07:00"And as far as I can see, the Delta variant i..."And as far as I can see, the Delta variant is not causing more than a very mild increase in cases and virtually no increases in deaths."<br /><br />So, basically, you write a couple thousand words article and comments as an "economist" but your actual conclusion is based on you being a tourist-virologist?<br /><br />1. There's already data that even pfizer/moderna Royhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09325498485905547125noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-79306300173157476702021-07-08T13:43:09.638-07:002021-07-08T13:43:09.638-07:00I'm tempted to view the rather significant rec...I'm tempted to view the rather significant recent decline in Treasury yields as indicative of the market reacting negatively to 1) the likelihood that Biden won't be able to "stimulate" the economy very much, and 2) the news that the Delta variant of Covid is spreading like wildfire and thus it could negate the beneficial effects of mass vaccinations. <br /><br />Both fears, if Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-85493759569360095672021-07-08T13:35:15.453-07:002021-07-08T13:35:15.453-07:00DJD, re "The Fed can reduce the money supply....DJD, re "The Fed can reduce the money supply..."<br />Yes, of course they can. But today that would mean selling upwards of $4 trillion of bonds. That would translate into a gigantic reduction in market liquidity. So big, that I seriously doubt that anyone at the Fed would even entertain the notion. One other thing they can is to raise the interest rate the Fed pays on reserves, since Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-58119413255476757582021-07-08T06:27:53.009-07:002021-07-08T06:27:53.009-07:00Speaking of California -
https://www.nytimes.com...Speaking of California - <br /><br />https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/08/opinion/california-gavin-newsom-recall.html?smid=url-share<br /><br />A few takeaways - even Ezra Klein recognizes that good intentions rule making is usually badly fails it's intended goals and is always corrupted by money interests. (Probably the most significant problem with Democrats in practice.). But it seems his randyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16368254229927808998noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-29624294863370921842021-07-07T17:11:25.814-07:002021-07-07T17:11:25.814-07:00More record highs on Wall Street, yields slipping ...More record highs on Wall Street, yields slipping on Treasuries. <br /><br />If there is bad news out there somewhere...Wall Street doesn't know about it.Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-66544262245100461202021-07-07T13:48:03.796-07:002021-07-07T13:48:03.796-07:00
Scott
The concern about the money supply seems o... <br />Scott<br />The concern about the money supply seems overblown. The Fed can REDUCE the money supply by simply selling bonds to the banks.....and also increasing equity requirements. <br />Dave DoyalDJDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01634608128841501265noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-48400436980816566312021-07-07T05:49:42.764-07:002021-07-07T05:49:42.764-07:00"Market participants have bid up the 10 year ..."Market participants have bid up the 10 year below a 1.40% yield."<br />And 30-yr 'risk free' opened at 1.95% this AM. This 1.95% includes expected inflation and a time premium, leaving expected real rates deep in negative territory.<br />How does that sound? Inflationary?<br /><br />-The economic output has 'recovered' but 7 million American workers have not.<br />How Carlhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01792779708580094262noreply@blogger.com