tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post4319681194599206666..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: High frequency data show a strong reboundScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger38125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-14926754755557522062020-05-18T11:29:43.987-07:002020-05-18T11:29:43.987-07:00Dr. Raymond Peat's response in relation to RNA...<br /><br /> Dr. Raymond Peat's response in relation to RNA vaccine:<br /><br /> "The problem is that our bodies can copy foreign RNA and DNA and incorporate the copies into our chromosomes. If they are genes for viral proteins, it’s possible that during a future stress, those foreign genes could be expressed throughout our body, creating overwhelming amounts of those toxic Reginahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15131348923028852793noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-12176178060246456082020-05-17T16:29:51.939-07:002020-05-17T16:29:51.939-07:00Hi Scott,
Do you have any comment on GDP Now from...Hi Scott,<br /><br />Do you have any comment on GDP Now from Federal reserve of atlanta which is projecting -42% drop in 2nd quarter GDP?<br /><br />Is this priced into the Market?<br /><br />https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow<br /><br /><br />Thanks,<br />JayJay Balapahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07827304196407278225noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-17039769138328342992020-05-17T08:51:05.340-07:002020-05-17T08:51:05.340-07:00MaineGuide-
All very interesting (your statements...MaineGuide-<br /><br />All very interesting (your statements below), but Buffett would have been bankrupted if not for the bailouts in 2008-2009. "Outperforming" from a base of "0" (bankruptcy), is still "0". <br /><br />From the post above (conveniently ignored in your reply): "Further note that a study (available via www search) showed that Buffett/BRK had ~ wkevinwhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17600473578823788550noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-24095902281745233552020-05-16T19:55:42.722-07:002020-05-16T19:55:42.722-07:00Yes, down 30% was a good buying opportunity in Mar...Yes, down 30% was a good buying opportunity in March and with the ex post facto knowledge that we have had a rebound. It, however, was not nearly as good as the opportunities in 2001 and 2009 time periods which was the point of the original response. Without the coordinated monetary and fiscal intervention, which came faster than most expected, prices would have been better. We may yet have anMaineGuidehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12218621382833036787noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-82218484902928672072020-05-16T12:48:17.123-07:002020-05-16T12:48:17.123-07:00Regardless, Darwin always gets last bats.Regardless, Darwin always gets last bats.Richard O'Neillhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10484251192705743078noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-10252511481388052362020-05-16T09:04:09.534-07:002020-05-16T09:04:09.534-07:00Buffett started having obvious problems in ~1998. ...Buffett started having obvious problems in ~1998. Value-based stock picking has been difficult for about 30 years now, and that's his schtick.<br /><br />Further note that a study (available via www search) showed that Buffett/BRK had ~ the 3rd most exposure/investment in firms that were bailed out in 2008-2009, Goldman, GE, etc.<br /><br />So, in my book, BRKA was bankrupted except for the wkevinwhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17600473578823788550noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-53529038016437105372020-05-16T08:58:27.107-07:002020-05-16T08:58:27.107-07:00Rudy Giulliani, Common Sense ep. 37 on Covid misma...Rudy Giulliani, Common Sense ep. 37 on Covid mismanagement, very well said. Adamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00325788638301535314noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-10393699566655992012020-05-16T05:06:48.778-07:002020-05-16T05:06:48.778-07:00I keep relative strength charts of Berkshire vs th...I keep relative strength charts of Berkshire vs the S&P 500, and vs. the S&P 500 Equal Weighted index (the hardest benchmark to beat, over time).<br />BRK.A divided by the price index, and plotted.<br /><br />Those charts both peaked in Oct 2008. Let that sink in.<br />Berkshire's relative strength chart vs. the regular S&P currently resides at 2007 levels.<br />The relative Johnny Bee Dawghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06836875640973245734noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-84180478839847770832020-05-16T04:39:10.261-07:002020-05-16T04:39:10.261-07:00JBD is spot on re BRK. Investment performance is a...JBD is spot on re BRK. Investment performance is all about what have you done for me recently not 20 years ago and WB has seriously under performed BUT the media loves him and he loves them back.<br /><br />BTW, I checked the data at Yahoo/finance. BRK.A up 6.97% acr over the past 15 years Vs 7.53% for VFINX so including the Great Recession he has under performed. <br /><br />And on more point. stevehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07387986994469835875noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-23959316934927279532020-05-16T04:12:36.231-07:002020-05-16T04:12:36.231-07:00That's a lot of words to say that Berkshire ha...That's a lot of words to say that Berkshire has underperformed the S&P 500 in the 1,3,5, and 10 year periods.<br /><br />Last year Warren underperformed by 20%. <br />This year he is underperforming by 14%.<br />He is about 5% away from his low for the year.<br /><br />I think he used to be better at investing.<br />Johnny Bee Dawghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06836875640973245734noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-45063884922781914202020-05-15T21:09:53.648-07:002020-05-15T21:09:53.648-07:00I don't invest in BRK, but I have admired Buff...I don't invest in BRK, but I have admired Buffett's patient,long-term approach. My comment was really about the great buying opportunity has not been as good as other periods in the last 20 years The Buffett comment was an aside. Be that as it may, it's usually not appropriate to confuse personal and political animus with investment results. A simple review of the Berkshire MaineGuidehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12218621382833036787noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-8591480151394281302020-05-15T14:55:39.234-07:002020-05-15T14:55:39.234-07:00MaineGuide:
Dividends matter. Berkshire is collec...MaineGuide:<br />Dividends matter. Berkshire is collecting all those dividends from all those stocks and businesses it owns, after all.<br />Warren loves dividends....he just doesnt like to pay them.<br /><br />Investors can buy the market, and collect all those S&P dividends, or they can buy 89 year old Warren, instead.<br />FWIW, 60% of the investment returns of the past 50 years in the S&Johnny Bee Dawghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06836875640973245734noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-8017306310501111852020-05-15T13:45:44.936-07:002020-05-15T13:45:44.936-07:00‘We could open up again and forget the whole thing...‘We could open up again and forget the whole thing’<br />Epidemiologist Knut Wittkowski on the deadly consequences of lockdown.<br /><br />“ “When the whole thing started, there was one reason given for the lockdown and that was to prevent hospitals from becoming overloaded. There is no indication that hospitals could ever have become overloaded, irrespective of what we did. So we could open up cbt696https://www.blogger.com/profile/02043139890135326675noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-56986980631780721442020-05-15T13:44:54.668-07:002020-05-15T13:44:54.668-07:00I have greatly enjoyed the interviews with Dr. Jay...I have greatly enjoyed the interviews with Dr. Jay Bhattacharya. I have found his thoughts and opinions on policy and procedure related to COVID to be very much in line with my thinking on the matter. However, below is Dr. Jay Bhattacharya’s profile on Stanford’s website. I have read it 3 times. I don’t see anything in there that would indicate to me that he would have any expertise in the rhapsodyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07343636529487244143noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-42617868114793802242020-05-15T09:27:23.400-07:002020-05-15T09:27:23.400-07:00Hello everyone. A few comments ago someone wrote ...Hello everyone. A few comments ago someone wrote that Buffett and others missed one of the "best buying opportunities of this century." I think if you look at it, this is not nearly the case. Using the S&P500 as a marker, the price decline of March simply brings prices back to the end of 2018, and maybe into 2017, depending on if you use the absolute bottom price or not. That&#MaineGuidehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12218621382833036787noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-43174483370874870172020-05-15T09:01:45.458-07:002020-05-15T09:01:45.458-07:00There is no vaccine for SARS or MERS.
How in the w...There is no vaccine for SARS or MERS.<br />How in the world did Mankind survive?<br /><br />Do any of the Leftist Authoritarians and their Governors ever ponder Science?<br />Johnny Bee Dawghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06836875640973245734noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-70892070866869152492020-05-15T08:00:48.937-07:002020-05-15T08:00:48.937-07:00This whole virus scene is quite reminiscent of sto...This whole virus scene is quite reminiscent of stock market opinions. To wit, there are NO experts. By definition, if many/most of the "experts" disagree then there are exactly zero or at least their opinion is pretty damn useless.<br /><br />Re Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, IF his opinion were true then screw it and open everything NOW. I mean, if there's no vaccine and it takes 70-80% of stevehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07387986994469835875noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-13262777403467758302020-05-15T04:34:56.767-07:002020-05-15T04:34:56.767-07:002) There is no vaccine for COVID-19 on the horizon...<i>2) There is no vaccine for COVID-19 on the horizon, and there may never be one.</i><br /><br />First of all, I am no expert. However, I have the good fortune of being related to some experts in this area. They have been a wonderful resource. There <b>will</b> be a vaccine. I don't know when. <br /><br />Some of the companies working on this are using a chemical (RNA) approach - as rhapsodyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07343636529487244143noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-19583409964572426552020-05-15T04:07:25.885-07:002020-05-15T04:07:25.885-07:00“ For the third time, Peter Robinson interviews Dr...“ For the third time, Peter Robinson interviews Dr. Jay Bhattacharya of Stanford Medical School for Uncommon Knowledge. Dr. Bhattacharya is cogent and articulate, and this conversation, a little under an hour long, is well worth your time. Among other things, he reports on a study he has just completed of COVID-19 in employees of major league baseball.<br />Dr. Bhattacharya brings bad news: 1) cbt696https://www.blogger.com/profile/02043139890135326675noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-51959313267801596342020-05-14T18:34:38.452-07:002020-05-14T18:34:38.452-07:00Druck is special not only for his incredible perfo...<i><b> Druck is special not only for his incredible performance but for his ability to shift on a dime. I consider him THE best that I've ever seen. </b></i><br /><br />I don’t know enough to agree or disagree. I would simply say that it seems Druck, Tepper & WEB are not all playing the same game. So maybe it’s a little like comparing Tiger & Jordan. When WEB buys whole companies, rhapsodyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07343636529487244143noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-66839049734309654342020-05-14T16:42:37.839-07:002020-05-14T16:42:37.839-07:00This is good news:
'We're the Wild West&#...This is good news:<br /><br />'We're the Wild West': Unmasked Wisconsinites crowd bars after the state Supreme Court struck down the governor's stay-at-home order---Business Insider. <br /><br />I am a little puzzled that return to normal is defined as the "Wild West" in the headline, but the good news is that evidently the public is willing to congregate again. (I hope Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-68648354526756825722020-05-14T15:42:08.819-07:002020-05-14T15:42:08.819-07:00Gentlemen, we must separate Buffett from the other...Gentlemen, we must separate Buffett from the other two. For the past quarter century or so Buffett's public market performance has been below average. If we ignore the insurance operations and the sweetheart deals that aren't available to you or me, and if we also consider the excess cash... well, his performance has been nothing special. (I know, kudos to him for having the idle cash Grechsterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08898953158865778397noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-4123425037875496142020-05-14T15:12:53.660-07:002020-05-14T15:12:53.660-07:00Rhapsody, your point about Gates influencing Buffe...Rhapsody, your point about Gates influencing Buffet is a fascinating point that I had not thought of but have to agree with you on. At some point in our investment careers-I've been in the biz for 25 years, we are all humbled so I def don't want to suggest that I am infallible. I have had my moments but when you are wrong I count it as cathartic and worthwhile to stand up and admit your stevehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07387986994469835875noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-14451186898609853112020-05-14T14:30:11.909-07:002020-05-14T14:30:11.909-07:00I'm not sure I understand Buffett.
Just to be...<i><b>I'm not sure I understand Buffett.</b></i><br /><br />Just to be clear: WEB is smarter in his sleep than I am on 3 cups of java. That said…<br /><br />I have been to several BRK meetings, including 2009. The WEB I saw 2 weeks ago was not the same guy. Now, I could write a book about my speculations regarding that last meeting. And, that is all it would be. Speculation. But, in rhapsodyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07343636529487244143noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-49459158587814094202020-05-14T14:16:23.456-07:002020-05-14T14:16:23.456-07:00I stand by my opinions. Buffet is old and addled a...I stand by my opinions. Buffet is old and addled and way too much of a TV hog now. When he was unknown he was amazing. Druck and Tepper are PISSED they missed one of the best buying opportunities of this century and are scrambling for a way to buy in. Just because you were great doesn't mean you always will be. They're both wealthy beyond any means and it's all ego now which is a stevehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07387986994469835875noreply@blogger.com