tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post4233857599241628858..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: What TIPS tell us about the outlook for growthScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-90210361658996586662012-06-07T18:51:06.511-07:002012-06-07T18:51:06.511-07:00Dr William J McKibbin said...
"Dividend earni...<a rel="nofollow">Dr William J McKibbin</a> said...<br />"Dividend earning stocks are a bargain right now -- rent-earning real estate is as well -- it's that simple -- long-term investors with a 25-30 year horizon are buying the bargains of a lifetime right now..."<br /><br />I believe this to be the case. I just hope that I continue to have the stamina to tolerate the volatility. Williamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04418491109912775561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-7831748312035752752012-06-07T05:44:09.045-07:002012-06-07T05:44:09.045-07:00Dividend earning stocks are a bargain right now --...Dividend earning stocks are a bargain right now -- rent-earning real estate is as well -- it's that simple -- long-term investors with a 25-30 year horizon are buying the bargains of a lifetime right now...McKibbinUSAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10545798495680527622noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-36159456984054569422012-06-06T18:35:41.729-07:002012-06-06T18:35:41.729-07:00It just may be that earnings will slow down and st...It just may be that earnings will slow down and stocks are fairly priced.<br /><br />Yesterday we talked about new QE possibly being ineffective or detrimental. From Zero Hedge late today, Morgan Stanley said QE was more correlative (to improved macro data) than causative. That QE works well as a preventative (of collapse) but not a cure to create growth.Squirehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14088030568579672500noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-83813801500790369162012-06-06T15:14:40.854-07:002012-06-06T15:14:40.854-07:00Old farts like me have seen this before - this pro...Old farts like me have seen this before - this prolonged aversion to equities.<br /><br />The very late 1960s and early 1970s were extremely similar to the late 1990s and early 2000s. There was in fact quite a technology bubble and also the "nifty 50" bubble during that time. The later theory was that one could buy the largest 50 US corporations, put them away and would NEVER have to Williamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04418491109912775561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-43513974197872819822012-06-06T14:30:23.890-07:002012-06-06T14:30:23.890-07:00You shouldn't compare the yield on equities to...You shouldn't compare the yield on equities to corproate bonds without adjusting for risk. Otherwise the chart is apples to oranges.Public Libraryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00017383928897945054noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-66943509818947171932012-06-06T13:47:23.399-07:002012-06-06T13:47:23.399-07:00The bond market is not telling us why expectations...The bond market is not telling us why expectations are so pessimistic, simply that they are. I interpret those expectations to be akin to expecting a global recession lasting years. If you don't believe that's likely, then the market is giving you better than even odds of making money by investing.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-85328387991576339892012-06-06T13:37:01.542-07:002012-06-06T13:37:01.542-07:00Bill,
I am interested in Scott's take on why ...Bill,<br /><br />I am interested in Scott's take on why such pessimism reigns as well. i suspect many factors are involved. One is that its not 'once' burned. Many investors have been repeatedly burned by volatility that is simply unendurable to virtually everyone. Thus if they participate at all it is as traders. Also, so many see the game as rigged...computer high frequency trading Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11652253509768573561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-26729203187245348602012-06-06T12:59:02.536-07:002012-06-06T12:59:02.536-07:00Scott,
What I don't understand about this ana...Scott,<br /><br />What I don't understand about this analysis is that the bond market has been predicting recession/depression since 2008. We got a deep recession but we've had about 3 years of at least some growth since the bottom of the recession. Is the bond market saying we've been in a depression since 2008 or are the low yields simply the result of the Fed's QE program Billhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06910619601367464068noreply@blogger.com