tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post4135503829516369298..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Dollar approaches critical levelsScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-59237276680413452992009-11-17T12:21:08.520-08:002009-11-17T12:21:08.520-08:00Feds are only as good as the people and the ideas ...Feds are only as good as the people and the ideas that guide them.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-16752380301009573022009-11-17T09:52:15.671-08:002009-11-17T09:52:15.671-08:00And what makes this Fed or future Feds, any better...And what makes this Fed or future Feds, any better than past ones?Public Libraryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00017383928897945054noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-6525989438068842992009-11-17T09:31:13.745-08:002009-11-17T09:31:13.745-08:00The euro is stronger because a) the dollar is weak...The euro is stronger because a) the dollar is weaker (and between the two of them you have a huge share of the world's wealth), and b) the ECB has done a better job managing monetary policy than the Fed.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-6319619677179437222009-11-17T09:13:38.950-08:002009-11-17T09:13:38.950-08:00I am a strong believer in mean reversion. I think...I am a strong believer in mean reversion. I think the dollar is near the bottom and isn't likely to fall much further. However, it is hard to say how long the dollar will bounce around near the bottom. <br /><br />I am very puzzled by why the Euro has gotten so much stronger. I am under the impression that the US is ahead of Europe in the recovery.狂猪https://www.blogger.com/profile/16599529315620633684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-71140177447697665672009-11-17T09:05:17.013-08:002009-11-17T09:05:17.013-08:00The chart may suggest something to you, but I don&...The chart may suggest something to you, but I don't see any implications for where rates will have to be the next time the Fed eases. The Fed mades some huge mistakes during the period represented in that chart, by the way. They tightened too much for too long in the late 1990s, and they eased too much for too long in the 2000s. That sets up a roller-coaster effect that exaggerates subsequentScott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-15177596686424636492009-11-17T08:36:50.351-08:002009-11-17T08:36:50.351-08:00This chart over at calculated risk, while designed...This chart over at calculated risk, while designed to show when the Fed usually tightens post recessions, looks scary from a long term perspective when looking at the decreasing bounds at which the Fed has been required to lower rates.<br /><br />http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_pMscxxELHEg/SrgJWrcjtTI/AAAAAAAAGYc/-FeEjTAsTC0/s1600-h/FedFundsUnemployment.jpg<br /><br />What comes next, negative rates?Public Libraryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00017383928897945054noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-36821297888363354962009-11-16T16:18:13.275-08:002009-11-16T16:18:13.275-08:00Mr. Grannis:
“A dispassionate observer would undo...Mr. Grannis:<br /><br />“A dispassionate observer would undoubtedly conclude from all this that the fundamentals couldn't be much worse for the dollar than they are today: weak economic growth prospects, astoundingly profligate fiscal policy, massively accommodative monetary policy, and an almost total absence of any official concern for the value of the dollar.”<br /><br />Oh so true. Might W.E. Heasleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00368333904571061995noreply@blogger.com