tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post382856460669547343..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: The PIIGS crisis is fading in importanceScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger17125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-44500389339118795782012-07-30T08:26:24.799-07:002012-07-30T08:26:24.799-07:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16091629980311184265noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-23363873154810549742011-12-13T10:17:40.308-08:002011-12-13T10:17:40.308-08:00OPEC's leading indicates are all heading south...OPEC's leading indicates are all heading south!<br /><br />http://dailycapitalist.com/2011/12/12/latest-oecd-leading-indicators-negative/#more-16618Hanshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05183141792723754273noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-63618640342819557722011-12-13T08:29:46.913-08:002011-12-13T08:29:46.913-08:00Re: leverage and re-hypothecation. This is the lat...Re: leverage and re-hypothecation. This is the latest thing people have found to worry about, and it's still mysterious and difficult for anyone to quantify. I am taking the position that anyone that had too much leverage has probably been wiped out by now (e.g., MF Global). I also believe that markets are most likely making an allowance for losses that have not yet been marked to market by Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-86596649320575702242011-12-13T08:22:12.231-08:002011-12-13T08:22:12.231-08:00Re: size of the global market. I detailed these nu...Re: size of the global market. I detailed these numbers in a previous post. The global bond market is approximately $63 trillion in size.<br /><br />http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2011/11/putting-piigs-debt-into-context.htmlScott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-45581955942924734102011-12-13T07:30:55.434-08:002011-12-13T07:30:55.434-08:00The PIIGS crisis in Europe will result in economic...The PIIGS crisis in Europe will result in economic depression across the southern flank of Europe, and recession in northern Europe -- such developments will also result in the US entering recession at best, and depression should Federalism handle California the same way the EU is handling the PIIGS crisis -- in summary, the PIIGS problem is synonymous in so many ways with what is about to happenMcKibbinUSAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10545798495680527622noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-73641705048958109162011-12-13T07:04:21.619-08:002011-12-13T07:04:21.619-08:00This thread has certainly been instructional!
I h...This thread has certainly been instructional!<br /><br />I had no idea, that the world bond market was this large...<br /><br />It has doubled in size, over the past decade. WOW!<br /><br />http://www.ftkmc.com/newsletter/Vol2-19-july25-2011.pdfHanshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05183141792723754273noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-87118470801032029302011-12-13T06:38:22.174-08:002011-12-13T06:38:22.174-08:00Mr Grannis, a very fine essay, indeed...It is good...Mr Grannis, a very fine essay, indeed...It is good to keep things in prospective and not become an alarmist...<br /><br />I also agree with your correct assessment, that the markets will work this mess out - in due time..<br /><br />My only concern, is that you mixed the equity market with the bond market, which distorts the numbers you cite with authority...<br /><br />I suspect, the global bondHanshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05183141792723754273noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-41471459566009147082011-12-13T06:29:35.516-08:002011-12-13T06:29:35.516-08:00Ben Jamin, you are correct, the Gyro will default....Ben Jamin, you are correct, the Gyro will default...<br /><br />They have exceed the debt limit, in the EU Constitution, which of course is not being enforced..<br /><br />The other problem is, that the Bank of Europe, does not have either the power or authority to print Euros at will...Hanshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05183141792723754273noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-55224276747574940412011-12-13T06:00:25.557-08:002011-12-13T06:00:25.557-08:00Frozen in the North captures it very nicely. Scot...Frozen in the North captures it very nicely. Scott's post is well argued as far as it goes, but I think it misses the huge problem of hypothecation/re-hypothecation. As a solvency problem, the Eurozone only has bad choices ahead, leading to collapse of the euro, big bank failures, and economies throughout the zone on the hook to try and bail them out. Economic growth and sovereign bond Jon S.https://www.blogger.com/profile/14840074248344452572noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-7571040763982909582011-12-13T04:58:09.553-08:002011-12-13T04:58:09.553-08:00Scott one of the problem you glance over is the le...Scott one of the problem you glance over is the leverage of the European financial system, while Lehman did with a stated leverage of 30x right now French and German banks are looking at 50x and 60x respectively. So much borrowed funds -- moreover, your assumption that European investors have taken the hit by marking to market is incorrect, aside from Unicredit no European bank has taken any hitFrozen in the Northhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04901959687094626879noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-78141565814053217292011-12-13T04:06:58.413-08:002011-12-13T04:06:58.413-08:00Did you know half of the Italian debt is held by d...Did you know half of the Italian debt is held by domestic investors??? I suspect as this number will be higher going into<br />the future with the ECB being a<br />major holder also....broderohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12296214283216386700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-26846107692662035742011-12-12T14:30:02.080-08:002011-12-12T14:30:02.080-08:00Hans:
The Euros have to print more money, and giv...Hans:<br /><br />The Euros have to print more money, and give it to the banks. <br /><br />A long time ago Greece should have been doing QE, and retiring debt by printing money. <br /><br />Yes, yes they would be better off never running up debts, but that is like saying you would be better off not pregnant. <br /><br />The question is what you do now. <br /><br />They are going default on Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-73810154106143487102011-12-12T14:23:27.042-08:002011-12-12T14:23:27.042-08:00The Gyro Zone banks have no liquidity to cover the...The Gyro Zone banks have no liquidity to cover these loses..<br /><br />There are no reserve requirement for "sovereign debt" in Europe; so what happens when the banks begin to close their doors?Hanshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05183141792723754273noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-81694502740263559142011-12-12T13:42:57.348-08:002011-12-12T13:42:57.348-08:00What are the significant roll dates for PIIGS debt...What are the significant roll dates for PIIGS debt? Thank you for the great posts!Topherhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08131362482241167701noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-50609274169056076402011-12-12T13:19:59.895-08:002011-12-12T13:19:59.895-08:00Performance: Faced with the uncertainties you cite...Performance: Faced with the uncertainties you cite (e.g., have the actual market losses been marked to market by all those holding PIIGS debt, and if not, is the market ignoring this?), I think the best approach is to trust the market. The market embodies the collective wisdom of hundreds of millions of individuals all trying to answer the same question.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-12770720232186059442011-12-12T12:48:04.900-08:002011-12-12T12:48:04.900-08:00I'm not sure why you think there was no advanc...I'm not sure why you think there was no advance warning before Lehman. Housing prices dropped quickly starting in 2006, the credit bubble burst in August '07 and Bear went down in March '08. It was pretty obvious to alot of people what was happening. <br />Also, do you mean to say that the "market" has written off $1 trillion, or that banks have taken mark-to-market lossesPerformanceSpeaksForItselfhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02710385857829942329noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-6057764348671996742011-12-12T12:42:21.208-08:002011-12-12T12:42:21.208-08:00Wow, what an excellent round-up of Euro events. W...Wow, what an excellent round-up of Euro events. Whether you agree with Scott Grannis or not, you have to admire this presentation.<br /><br />My take-away is no sovereign nation should ever lose control of its currency printing press.<br /><br />An 80 percent haircut on Greek debt? If the Greeks could print money, and inflate, I am sure Greek bondholders would lose something to inflation. But Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.com