tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post3427790180470019604..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: ISM index suggests an inflection pointScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger15125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-58973024580324704442009-03-03T23:58:00.000-08:002009-03-03T23:58:00.000-08:00Scott,I keep the html code in a text file and just...Scott,<BR/><BR/>I keep the html code in a text file and just copy and paste it when I want to use it. I agree, typing it over and over would become tiresome very quickly.bob wrighthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09546025277161775062noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-68083856305130178512009-03-03T15:11:00.000-08:002009-03-03T15:11:00.000-08:00Got it. Thanks Scott.Got it. Thanks Scott.Eldon Masthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15444008509086050220noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-83816768168274721592009-03-03T09:32:00.000-08:002009-03-03T09:32:00.000-08:00My data sources are listed on the chart: the Inst....My data sources are listed on the chart: the Inst. for Supply Management and the Bureau of Economic Analysis. I don't know what the ISM says about the implications of their number for current GDP growth. I've lined up the two y-axes in the way I think best matches the data, so my saying that the ISM data suggests current growth of -4% for GDP is subjective.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-82293155278078484622009-03-03T09:26:00.000-08:002009-03-03T09:26:00.000-08:00Scott,What is the source of the underlying data fo...Scott,<BR/><BR/>What is the source of the underlying data for the two lines on the chart?<BR/><BR/>I am still confused by their correlation to GDP in their report to -1.7 annualized and yours of -4 <BR/><BR/>Thanks,<BR/>e/Eldon Masthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15444008509086050220noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-40553482069644314482009-03-03T08:27:00.000-08:002009-03-03T08:27:00.000-08:00Eldon: thanks for the summary. The -4% I referred ...Eldon: thanks for the summary. The -4% I referred is just me looking at the chart. The latest PMI number corresponds roughly to -4% growth for the first quarter.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-30647550872108782712009-03-03T03:59:00.000-08:002009-03-03T03:59:00.000-08:00Scott,I am also not quite sure how you got to the ...Scott,<BR/><BR/>I am also not quite sure how you got to the -4% annualized GDP calculation from the current ISM PMI... doesn't the PMI for February (35.8 percent) correspond to a 1.7 percent decline in GDP on an annual basis?<BR/><BR/>e/Eldon Masthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15444008509086050220noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-23413121419447212042009-03-03T03:50:00.000-08:002009-03-03T03:50:00.000-08:00Scott,The Beck links are about 10 mins each of him...Scott,<BR/><BR/>The Beck links are about 10 mins each of him blathering on and on about how wonderful he his for telling folks to get out of the market at 14,000 and much hearsay about why current events will turn from R to D.<BR/><BR/>Not much facts and data which is what you consistently post here instead.<BR/><BR/>Should Beck happen to look at your site and care to even look at current data, Eldon Masthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15444008509086050220noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-7465336471369965042009-03-03T00:21:00.000-08:002009-03-03T00:21:00.000-08:00bob: I've always thought there was an easy way to ...bob: I've always thought there was an easy way to do that, but it doesn't seem very easy if you have to type all those characters.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-85202089394209829112009-03-02T18:37:00.000-08:002009-03-02T18:37:00.000-08:00cdlic,you can use this html instruction in future ...cdlic,<BR/><BR/>you can use this html instruction in future comments if you want a "clickable" link:<BR/><BR/><A HREF="http://www.htmlcodetutorial.com/linking/_A_HREF.html" REL="nofollow">html code tutorial </A>bob wrighthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09546025277161775062noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-91704667184905811852009-03-02T18:05:00.000-08:002009-03-02T18:05:00.000-08:00If someone has the time and the inclination they m...If someone has the time and the inclination they might summarize the key points of this argument for me. Bear in mind I am aware of the arguments that others are making for deflation and depression.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-16607742346953744642009-03-02T12:11:00.000-08:002009-03-02T12:11:00.000-08:00Scott:Yes, I agree, predicting depression and defl...Scott:<BR/><BR/>Yes, I agree, predicting depression and deflation is not daring, however, the way Zimmerman backed up these events made much sense to me; thus, the post and links.<BR/><BR/>I have copied the complete links below for anyone interested in Zimmerman's interview (I thought they first ones would be 'clickable' but were not). <BR/> <BR/><BR/>http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CDLIChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01216074401236580903noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-55169753357978097422009-03-02T11:42:00.000-08:002009-03-02T11:42:00.000-08:00CDLIC: I am deaf except for a bionic ear (cochlear...CDLIC: I am deaf except for a bionic ear (cochlear implant) that allows me to hear modestly. It's not good enough to listen to YouTube videos unfortunately. And in any event I think your links were incomplete.<BR/><BR/>Predicting depression and deflation is hardly daring, however, since that is what the market has been expecting for months.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-52607479853516602632009-03-02T10:58:00.000-08:002009-03-02T10:58:00.000-08:00Scott,In contrast to your take that we've seen the...Scott,<BR/><BR/>In contrast to your take that we've seen the worst of the bad news regarding the economy, I submit the following interview by Glenn Beck of Walt Zimmerman from United I-Cap Analytics. I listened to the interview on the radio yesterday as I was driving to dinner. The interview was so interesting, although starving; I sat in my car for about 30 minutes listening. Zimmerman's logic CDLIChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01216074401236580903noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-847076724359675282009-03-02T10:37:00.000-08:002009-03-02T10:37:00.000-08:00I was trying to say that the huge wealth losses th...I was trying to say that the huge wealth losses that we have sustained can be likened to tearing up a stack of promissory notes. Stocks and bonds represent claims on future cash flows. They are generated by businesses, but they are redistributed the stock and bond market. When the value of stocks and corporate bonds declines, it is as if those pieces of paper had been torn up. You thought you hadScott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-314268704527830042009-03-02T10:30:00.000-08:002009-03-02T10:30:00.000-08:00Scott,Could you explain, "What's missing is a big ...Scott,<BR/>Could you explain, "What's missing is a big stack of paper documents that say how certain cash flows in the future were to have been redistributed"The Therapist Is Inhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07340602598063284934noreply@blogger.com