tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post3312559173841649910..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Weekly claims still pointing to a bottom (6)Scott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger11125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-74950618155267926262009-07-17T08:21:13.620-07:002009-07-17T08:21:13.620-07:00ThanksThanksScott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-12110184047592148722009-07-17T07:31:03.776-07:002009-07-17T07:31:03.776-07:00As you were saying Scott http://ftalphaville.ft.co...As you were saying Scott http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/07/17/62641/citi-subprime-snapshot/The Lab-Rathttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07536760477782772549noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-6201657878930822662009-07-16T14:38:09.044-07:002009-07-16T14:38:09.044-07:00Kudlow had a good article today about the stock su...Kudlow had a good article today about the stock surge, and the earnings paradox. <br /><br />http://www.cnbc.com/id/31944230<br /><br />"I call this the profits paradox. Bad economic news can be good profits news, at least for awhile, as businesses take corrective measures. And from this business discipline comes a big surge in productivity, which ultimately drives us into recovery."Danielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11220806915938960892noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-2904668566913689362009-07-16T13:42:31.206-07:002009-07-16T13:42:31.206-07:00"Indeed, I think the big story going forward ..."Indeed, I think the big story going forward will be that many companies are going to be recapturing a good deal of what they have written down."<br /><br />Hahaha! I completely agree. We've watched the overshot on the upside a few years ago with the housing bubble. A few months ago we saw the overshot on the downside. Everything played out in slow motion right before our eyes!狂猪https://www.blogger.com/profile/16599529315620633684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-15941494217014679302009-07-16T11:23:06.898-07:002009-07-16T11:23:06.898-07:00I still maintain that most of the losses have been...I still maintain that most of the losses have been taken. Some of those losses have resulted in the collapse of some major companies, wiping out hundreds of billions of equity capital. Other losses have been taken to the bottom line, resulting in huge reported losses from companies all over the globe. Those losses are of similar order of magnitude to the losses you would expect given the stock Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-14333479158610964692009-07-16T10:59:57.099-07:002009-07-16T10:59:57.099-07:00Those are facts based in reality Scott, not regres...Those are facts based in reality Scott, not regression based metrics or fancy charts. Risk metrics "should" be significantly lower because Governments have distorted the measurement of that very calculation.<br /><br />Think about it, the US Government has thrown everything at this crisis and 1) the toxic asset situation has not materially changed and 2) the unemployment rate will Public Libraryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00017383928897945054noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-47522503222951797662009-07-16T10:31:55.297-07:002009-07-16T10:31:55.297-07:00I think you're unduly pessimistic. There have ...I think you're unduly pessimistic. There have been widespread and genuine improvements. Swap spreads and agency spreads are essentially back to normal. Credit spreads have tightened considerably. Volatility is way down. These things reflect genuine healing in the financial markets. Lots of losses have been taken already, if not almost all the losses. Severely depressed markets for ABX and Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-19436789034167283312009-07-16T10:19:52.332-07:002009-07-16T10:19:52.332-07:00A brief look back at the men in charge and how the...A brief look back at the men in charge and how their experiences may have shaped their current decision making.<br /><br />http://www.american.com/archive/2009/july/when-they-were-young <br /><br />I believe we are pushing the cr*p down hill and that eventually the credit system will implode. <br /><br />Obviously the Fed hopes that banks et al can earn their way out of debt but when the entire Public Libraryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00017383928897945054noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-14305125047897050882009-07-16T09:15:39.087-07:002009-07-16T09:15:39.087-07:00Scott,
Let's make a deal....when companies st...Scott,<br /><br />Let's make a deal....when companies start hiring again and wage cuts stabilize, I will become a BIGGER bull than you!<br /><br />In the mean time, few companies are hiring and tens of millions face massive wage cuts against a historically high level of debt.<br /><br />Maybe it's time for Alstry to start trying to start looking at the other side of the coin....but based alstryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16025398896639165994noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-2337184054569265162009-07-16T08:39:17.627-07:002009-07-16T08:39:17.627-07:00Perception is reality. Technically, we may be out ...Perception is reality. Technically, we may be out of a recession but the hangover is going to be long and hard. Here are some anecdotal tidbits that apply only to my immediate sphere.<br /><br />My father is a Geologist for the state of CA and has seen his hours/pay cut 20% or so. Lucky he is close to retirement.<br /><br />My brother was laid off from a mid tier CPA firm’s bankruptcy division. Public Libraryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00017383928897945054noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-28711601012402892162009-07-16T08:35:57.683-07:002009-07-16T08:35:57.683-07:00This comment has been removed by the author.Public Libraryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00017383928897945054noreply@blogger.com