tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post3278196556300285602..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: ISM indices say the "new normal" economy is a no-showScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-32962467415711558702010-08-02T12:00:45.145-07:002010-08-02T12:00:45.145-07:00Bill: there are no perfect fits between two sets o...Bill: there are no perfect fits between two sets of data. And it is quite possible that manufacturing can be doing a lot better than the service sector, so that strong ISM readings are not translating into stronger GDP readings. Whatever the case, I take the ISM indices as a very good sign that the economy is growing, and in the current climate of negativism that is very good news.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-39107933060429580002010-08-02T11:42:41.962-07:002010-08-02T11:42:41.962-07:00Yes, but why does GDP come in at 5% and 3.7% when ...Yes, but why does GDP come in at 5% and 3.7% when IMS is saying the growth will be much higher? Does that suggest that ISM's projections for growth is too high?Billhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06910619601367464068noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-73411409940922156282010-08-02T11:35:10.161-07:002010-08-02T11:35:10.161-07:00Lately, the economy seems to be losing steam..a lo...Lately, the economy seems to be losing steam..a lot of downlines, instead of uplines....<br /><br />Fed action needed.Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-82435372272274156512010-08-02T10:54:01.835-07:002010-08-02T10:54:01.835-07:00agreed, but i was personally surprised that the pa...agreed, but i was personally surprised that the past 2 years were revised significantly down (in aggregate), thus the recession was actually about 1% below (in real terms) previously thought levels. <br /><br />shorter term my concern is the composition of GDP over the past 3-4 quarters. a huge rebound in inventory rebuild (a good sign, but won't drive future growth), slowing end-user demand,Jakehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07946497592651234440noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-71130288795928147682010-08-02T10:43:55.921-07:002010-08-02T10:43:55.921-07:00Jake: keep in mind that the 2.4% growth for Q2 is ...Jake: keep in mind that the 2.4% growth for Q2 is an estimate that will be revised several times at least. Plus, quarterly GDP figures can be volatile, and every up and down does not signify a change in trend. You just can't put a lot of weight on one GDP number. You need to look at a whole lot of things to get a feel for where the economy is headed. I still see lots of signs of growth that Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-88859445478850741722010-08-02T10:33:24.338-07:002010-08-02T10:33:24.338-07:00The economy is estimated to have grown by 2.4% in ...The economy is estimated to have grown by 2.4% in Q2 by the BEA. Do you think this is wrong?Jakehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07946497592651234440noreply@blogger.com