tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post3226672003099967705..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Claims collapseScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-17853349510950416932014-10-24T08:21:32.163-07:002014-10-24T08:21:32.163-07:00Far for it for me to understand the global imbalan...Far for it for me to understand the global imbalances. But if China’s imbalances (high savings, investment, export, and low consumption) have hurt the US (low savings, investment, export, and high consumption and debt) then rebalancing should help the US.<br /><br />I do see the beginnings of re-shoring in the US.<br /><br />I do hope we have only moderate growth for it is sustainable. If I Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-64544342640677504842014-10-24T04:18:12.576-07:002014-10-24T04:18:12.576-07:00rather think scott has it right here and you two m...rather think scott has it right here and you two may be over analyzing. the only thing QE has really done is push $ into risk assets. business has not invested much into, well, business! instead they've been buying back stock and as scott says, getting leaner thanks largely to incredible leaps in technology. but as claims and unemployment in general get lower, business will (hopefully) investstevehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07387986994469835875noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-84901059143912945012014-10-23T17:18:36.277-07:002014-10-23T17:18:36.277-07:00Joe---You are correct, the Fed is playing a very d...Joe---You are correct, the Fed is playing a very dangerous game. Likely the USA will hit the next recession with interest rates still in very low single digits.<br /><br />At that point the Fed will have little choice but to go to quantitative easing - yet central bankers dislike quantitative easing.<br /><br />Call it, the United States of Japan.Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-13399887345398029272014-10-23T17:04:19.668-07:002014-10-23T17:04:19.668-07:00Do note how quickly the claims line rises once it ...Do note how quickly the claims line rises once it starts.<br /><br />Perhaps it is different this time. But probably not that different. I buy the case that there could be an extended period of time before things get too hot to handle. And maybe it will be a really long time if the economy doesn’t do better. I don’t think we can have our cake and eat it too. Either the economy stays moderateAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com