tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post3186033287074856424..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: The 10% GDP output gapScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-87169214666082564042010-05-27T17:00:53.557-07:002010-05-27T17:00:53.557-07:00seeking: No, my method does not include inflation....seeking: No, my method does not include inflation. I'm only using real GDP. The growth rates I'm citing are also expressed in real terms.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-2305384313325157572010-05-27T15:43:59.293-07:002010-05-27T15:43:59.293-07:00The proper method is to run a regression on Real G...The proper method is to run a regression on Real GDP from 1930 data. Today that value is 3.2%. Then you should add back in an estimate of core inflation. The 12mo Trimmed Mean PCE(Dallas Fed) is ~1% so the actual trend rests at ~4.2%.<br />Your chart method includes inflation which distortes your result.seekingtraceevidencehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02479493983076211876noreply@blogger.com