tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post3040204101424434563..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Claims still show no evidence of a double-dipScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-54430945643461827062011-10-13T11:33:55.527-07:002011-10-13T11:33:55.527-07:00This is exactly your problem. When the SA series t...This is exactly your problem. When the SA series ticks up, you point to the NSA series to support your bullish view. In today's case, the NSA series spikes higher. And you argue it's all due to seasonal adjustment. You always have it both ways. Someone could just as easily make the opposite argument the other way around. There is no consistency and logic in your analysis since you are Pragmatic Investorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08952759176339628535noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-65237246167273014512011-10-13T09:57:08.414-07:002011-10-13T09:57:08.414-07:00Here is an indicator related to job
openings...loo...Here is an indicator related to job<br />openings...look at a 3 month moving<br />average of y-o-y private sector job<br />openings....broderohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12296214283216386700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-59875320489019810592011-10-13T09:00:35.101-07:002011-10-13T09:00:35.101-07:00Squire. With regard to predictive value of jobles...Squire. With regard to predictive value of jobless claims<br />Have you ever looked<br /> At a 50 year chart of jobless claims and recessions...<br />There is a reason why almost all economists whose jobs<br />Are on the line look at jobless claimsbroderohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12296214283216386700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-44054508766991036802011-10-13T08:42:12.599-07:002011-10-13T08:42:12.599-07:00There are 110 million employed in "private pa...There are 110 million employed in "private payrolls" and there are not too many people employed which would cause people to be laid off and an indicator of economic contraction. There are not too few people employed which would indicate future hiring which would predict economic expansion.<br /><br />Jobs are now a coincidental gauge with no predictive value. Claims, unemployment are Squirehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14088030568579672500noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-52766574003849547912011-10-13T08:20:47.519-07:002011-10-13T08:20:47.519-07:00The 52 week moving average of nonseasonally adjust...The 52 week moving average of nonseasonally adjusted jobless claims continues to move south....<br />the 12 week moving average of non seasonally adjusted claims has four<br />distinct points in a year a recession doesn't start unless one<br />of these points is higher than the previous year...it hasn't happened yet...broderohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12296214283216386700noreply@blogger.com