tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post2966140159351269176..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Bonds beat stocks (2)Scott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-50040016038405029592008-12-22T21:28:00.000-08:002008-12-22T21:28:00.000-08:00dave: there's nothing necessarily wrong with that ...dave: there's nothing necessarily wrong with that strategy, but it is almost as if you're doubling up on your exposure rather than hedging. If HY does well, it will be because the economy has avoided a depression/deflation, and that would be very bad for Treasuries (i.e., higher yields)--so you would make money on both sides of that trade. If HY does poorly, then Treasury yields are likely to Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-81514288915585149082008-12-22T14:23:00.000-08:002008-12-22T14:23:00.000-08:00Scott,What do you think about being long a High yi...Scott,<BR/>What do you think about being long a High yield ETF short the US 10 year treasury?davehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01173750820649272172noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-69538461159880689092008-12-20T12:02:00.000-08:002008-12-20T12:02:00.000-08:00Brian: James Grant has been a perma-bear, and thus...Brian: James Grant has been a perma-bear, and thus wrong most of the time, but in this article he makes some good points, especially in regard to the discipline of a gold standard. The problem with the Fed is that they have "discretion" and that means they can and most likely will make mistakes. No human or group of humans can pick the right interest rate to balance all of the forces acting in Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-5785642737327726642008-12-20T11:12:00.000-08:002008-12-20T11:12:00.000-08:00Spiral: the 10-yr Treasury is generally the refere...Spiral: the 10-yr Treasury is generally the reference point for mortgages, but not always. It works most of the time because it has the same duration as mortgages. Conforming mortgage rates tend to have a spread of 130-180 bps or so over the 10-yr Treasury.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-26962398032522393902008-12-20T09:26:00.000-08:002008-12-20T09:26:00.000-08:00I recently came across your blog and have been rea...I recently came across your blog and have been reading along. I thought I would leave my first comment. I don’t know what to say except that I have enjoyed reading. Nice blog. I will keep visiting this blog very often.<BR/><BR/>Oscar<BR/><BR/>http://www.sintrampanicarton.es/Oscar Caverohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11456609833924384967noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-88323379247854452812008-12-20T08:17:00.000-08:002008-12-20T08:17:00.000-08:00Spiral -I often use www.bankrate.com. You have to ...Spiral -<BR/><BR/>I often use www.bankrate.com. You have to watch the "leader" numbers many companies put out there, but overall, the quotes are pretty close.<BR/><BR/>Scott - what do you think of this WSJ article on money supply?<BR/>http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122973431525523215.htmlBrian Hhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14869071526968957308noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-81910592161816009872008-12-19T19:16:00.000-08:002008-12-19T19:16:00.000-08:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-89473540161737757292008-12-19T17:22:00.000-08:002008-12-19T17:22:00.000-08:00Is the 10 year Treasury yield reasonably closely t...Is the 10 year Treasury yield reasonably closely tied to the home mortgage rate on 30 year fixed home mortgages? <BR/><BR/>I have begun the process of refinancing my house. But I wonder if I should wait a few weeks to get a better rate. This assumes that rates will go even lower than they are now. <BR/><BR/>What's the best way to watch the home mortgage market besides constantly calling up Spiralhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06283696339544813585noreply@blogger.com