tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post2963550745920259099..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Ignore retail salesScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-40663849325053088782015-01-16T08:14:48.336-08:002015-01-16T08:14:48.336-08:00Re inflation and the Fed. Given the lags between m...Re inflation and the Fed. Given the lags between monetary policy changes and their impact on the economy, I believe the Fed can't wait until inflation rises to raise rates. That's like driving by looking in the rear view mirror. The Fed needs to be anticipating where inflation is going. As Wayne Gretzky famously said, "I skate to where the puck is going, not to where it is." <brScott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-11489691749084608702015-01-16T07:42:09.322-08:002015-01-16T07:42:09.322-08:00Scott,
core inflation is not rising; do you still...Scott,<br /><br />core inflation is not rising; do you still think the fed should raise rates?<br /><br />Thanks.Royhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09325498485905547125noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-74901254496974162372015-01-15T09:29:12.885-08:002015-01-15T09:29:12.885-08:00Monthly retail sales reports are not only volatile...Monthly retail sales reports are not only volatile. They are subject to significant revisions. I suspect December's number will be revised upwards, and one reason might be that online sales were larger than in previous Decembers, and it's extremely difficult for the government to track these figures.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-92038994166919769342015-01-15T09:25:26.893-08:002015-01-15T09:25:26.893-08:00Lawyer: I was a Democrat through my 20s. I became ...Lawyer: I was a Democrat through my 20s. I became a libertarian after spending several years as an economist, during which time I learned how economies and markets work. I'm a libertarian because I believe in the power of free markets and free people, and I believe that governments too often intervene with negative results, albeit with the best of intentions. I also believe that people spend Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-9675649410938301472015-01-15T09:09:33.824-08:002015-01-15T09:09:33.824-08:00Ignoring monthly changes in retail sales is a poin...Ignoring monthly changes in retail sales is a point well taken. My problem with the report is that it was for the Christmas month and electronics and clothing were down.<br /><br />Regardless, if one is focused on the stock market, ECB QE is the only thing that matters at the moment.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-69996435746163911312015-01-14T20:09:16.013-08:002015-01-14T20:09:16.013-08:00Boy, talk about rose colored glasses. Economies a...Boy, talk about rose colored glasses. Economies around the world are in recession. The long bond is breaking records, devaluation of currencies... and everyday I read how good things are. feel like your approach is looking at the trees and not seeing the forest.John McCormickhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16224835291067550046noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-5188727059271047342015-01-14T17:52:30.088-08:002015-01-14T17:52:30.088-08:00Love the shale oil.
But the price signal I love e...Love the shale oil.<br /><br />But the price signal I love even more. Global consumption of oil has been flatlining for years, due to higher prices. <br /><br />New supplies, conservation.<br /><br />The higher oil prices were a positive---spurs new production, and employment in the right sectors.<br /><br />That's why fighting commodity prices with tight money is improper policy. Higher Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-46928722947417837552015-01-14T15:55:48.610-08:002015-01-14T15:55:48.610-08:00Scott, great analysis. Negativity and manic-ness ...Scott, great analysis. Negativity and manic-ness of market is amazing. Last month's numbers will be revised downward. So next month will they revise the most recent month's numbers?<br /><br />If you had new money to commit to equities, what sectors/issues interest you the most?sgt.red.blue.redhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08132657702786638326noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-62312260769655599392015-01-14T15:21:17.184-08:002015-01-14T15:21:17.184-08:00Even though my political views are often divergent...Even though my political views are often divergent from yours, this type of analysis is the reason I think your blog is a must read.Lawyer in NJhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02920739130504981369noreply@blogger.com