tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post2950707345881586783..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Jobs growth is disappointing, but the tax plan is encouragingScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger23125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-53010440425957295972017-11-09T20:40:10.474-08:002017-11-09T20:40:10.474-08:00bob: that looks like the right series, but note th...bob: that looks like the right series, but note that in my chart I use the inflation-adjusted version of this series. Your link is the nominal series.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-10763213426106271152017-11-09T19:32:19.487-08:002017-11-09T19:32:19.487-08:00Scott,
Is this the data source for gross private ...Scott,<br /><br />Is this the data source for gross private domestic investment you reference:<br /><br />https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GPDI<br /><br />Thanks for all of your work and thoughtful commentary.<br /><br />Bob Wrightbob wrighthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09546025277161775062noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-26619415178580164242017-11-09T13:36:29.716-08:002017-11-09T13:36:29.716-08:00Mr. Grannis
I supported the Reagan tax rate cuts.
...Mr. Grannis<br />I supported the Reagan tax rate cuts.<br />They can not be repeated.<br />We don't have 70% rates now.<br />The personal tax rates are not being cut almost in half now.<br />Even with that smart tax reform, the tax revenues increased very little in the Reagan years.<br /><br />Meanwhile the ACTUAL national debt TRIPLED under Reagan, <br />during his eight years, <br />and theThe Cliff Claven of Financehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13541954550199246606noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-67222106532767369322017-11-09T10:06:15.884-08:002017-11-09T10:06:15.884-08:00Cliff: Here are some surprising facts about Reagan...Cliff: Here are some surprising facts about Reagan, tax rates, and the national debt. <br /><br />Federal revenues, FY 1980: $520 billion, FY 1981: $599 billion, FY 1982: $619 billion, FY 1983: $601 billion.<br /><br />Between FY 1980 and FY 1983, the top marginal income tax rate plunged from 70% to 38.5%, yet revenues increased by over 15%. <br /><br />Federal debt as a % of GDP (the only valid Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-80341452268518650492017-11-09T09:17:33.038-08:002017-11-09T09:17:33.038-08:00This comment has been removed by the author.The Cliff Claven of Financehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13541954550199246606noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-53524525482430105792017-11-09T09:17:24.847-08:002017-11-09T09:17:24.847-08:00Mr. Grannis said:
"Lowering the rate to 15% o...Mr. Grannis said:<br />"Lowering the rate to 15% or so would very likely result in an increased in revenues to the Treasury."<br /><br />Comment:<br />That's backwards economics.<br /><br />I challenge you to show me one study proving tax cuts have ever "paid for themselves".<br /><br />And don't mention Reagan -- his tax cuts were accompanied by a tripling of the The Cliff Claven of Financehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13541954550199246606noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-9792576633499519552017-11-09T08:48:29.580-08:002017-11-09T08:48:29.580-08:00bob: I just realized I forgot to put the data sour...bob: I just realized I forgot to put the data source on the chart—thanks for catching that. The data comes from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), the same source for all GDP-related data. (bea.gov)Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-29791122654269745962017-11-09T04:55:41.002-08:002017-11-09T04:55:41.002-08:00Scott,
Is the data set for private sector investm...Scott,<br /><br />Is the data set for private sector investment [real gross private domestic investment] from a publicly available source or do you get your data from Bloomberg?<br /><br />Bob Wrightbob wrighthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09546025277161775062noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-54811060634708046862017-11-09T04:53:29.273-08:002017-11-09T04:53:29.273-08:00This comment has been removed by the author.bob wrighthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09546025277161775062noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-9578631478337866232017-11-08T10:49:26.896-08:002017-11-08T10:49:26.896-08:00The above is obviously incorrect. The top 1% of in...The above is obviously incorrect. The top 1% of income earners pay nearly 40% of all tax. This is from the IRS. It's a myth that high wage earners somehow avoid paying a LOT of tax.stevehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07387986994469835875noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-57046114703120624132017-11-08T08:14:19.531-08:002017-11-08T08:14:19.531-08:00One sentence stood out: The Trump Tax plan keeps ...One sentence stood out: The Trump Tax plan keeps tax rates for the very wealthy very high...sure BUT!<br /><br />This 39.5% tax rate is easily avoided by the ultra-wealthy with just a little tax planning. In fact, the ultra-wealthy can easily reduce their taxable rate to less than 25%...Not even serious tax planning is required (which they do anyway), that's why there no kicking and Frozen in the Northhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04901959687094626879noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-57180896455009854182017-11-08T06:15:25.121-08:002017-11-08T06:15:25.121-08:00"US citizens are not taxed too much.
US corpo..."US citizens are not taxed too much.<br />US corporations are not taxed too much.<br />US taxes are too low relative to Govt. spending!"<br /><br />WRONG! <br /><br />Admittedly, you are right about the last sentence but that misses the point.<br /><br />The federal government spends too much damn $-on everything. Pols are wimps-but despite the rhetoric, this is what voters want. More stevehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07387986994469835875noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-47727205604411804272017-11-08T04:13:38.775-08:002017-11-08T04:13:38.775-08:00Of course that entire conversation and indeed the ...Of course that entire conversation and indeed the entire effort of tax reform is moot. <br /><br />NO ONE IN DC HAS THE COURAGE TO CUT SPENDING! Especially not DT who is really more liberal than conservative.<br /><br />This is the crux of the matter and what will always put a lid on growth. If we define a conservative as one who believes in limited government and allowing individuals more choicestevehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07387986994469835875noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-49977468022250093722017-11-07T18:25:11.544-08:002017-11-07T18:25:11.544-08:00Of course, why ever tax productive behavior?
Why...Of course, why ever tax productive behavior? <br /><br />Why ever tax income?<br /><br />If a man has $5 million in income but lives modestly, he is placing very little claim on output (resources) while inputting a lot into future growth (assuming his income is invested). <br /><br />Tax property and spending, not income!<br /><br />As for here and now: The GOP should just triple, not double, theBenjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-30894716335222784082017-11-07T09:42:19.338-08:002017-11-07T09:42:19.338-08:00Cliff: I agree that the cash that US corporations ...Cliff: I agree that the cash that US corporations have accumulated overseas (by not repatriating it, because they would incur a significant tax liability) is nevertheless available to the US domestic market. Cash is fungible; money held in an overseas account can easily be invested in a US asset. And of course companies can leave foreign profits overseas and sell bonds in the US to effectively &Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-25614923883477088482017-11-07T06:56:34.368-08:002017-11-07T06:56:34.368-08:00To Steve
An intelligent comment would select somet...To Steve<br />An intelligent comment would select something I wrote, even one sentence, and refute it.<br />A not very intelligent comment would call me a "whacko", and say "what a bunch of blather".<br /><br />I guess you prefer the low road.<br /><br />In spite of your insult,s I tend to agree with the OTHER things you wrote.<br />I hope saying that doesn't upset you -- The Cliff Claven of Financehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13541954550199246606noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-31406318863464173402017-11-07T04:54:19.540-08:002017-11-07T04:54:19.540-08:00Seems like this column attracts one whacko regardl...Seems like this column attracts one whacko regardless of time frame and Cliff is the latest. What a bunch of blather! <br /><br />That said, tax bill is already falling apart as GOP is capitulating on mortgage interest deduction limit and I guarantee they will do same on state tax. I have NEVER understood why RE should get subsidized. Makes absolutely no sense. <br /><br />Anyways the left has a stevehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07387986994469835875noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-74820099486885754832017-11-06T17:32:29.449-08:002017-11-06T17:32:29.449-08:00Sid Pools--
You have labor issues but worse you h...Sid Pools--<br /><br />You have labor issues but worse you have housing issues all up and down the West Coast in GOP areas and in Democratic areas.<br /><br />Property zoning is the evil that cannot be discussedBenjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-33687513454977975792017-11-06T13:05:18.392-08:002017-11-06T13:05:18.392-08:00Cliff: I disagree with you across the board. As ev...Cliff: I disagree with you across the board. As evidence that the corporate tax rate is too high, I think the huge amount of overseas profits that have been accumulated by US businesses is indisputable proof. Art Laffer and Milton Friedman taught me this years ago: taxes are too high when they influence people's behavior (e.g., tax avoidance). Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-54129321708634993722017-11-06T13:02:38.319-08:002017-11-06T13:02:38.319-08:00Sid: you make a good point. But to clarify, the sl...Sid: you make a good point. But to clarify, the slowdown in jobs growth that I note here began 3 years ago, when the unemployment rate was a good deal higher (5.8%)than it is today (4.1%). And the pickup in productivity of late is still very weak from an historical point of view. So it's hard to convincingly tie the two together. However, going forward, if the demand for labor picks up due toScott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-73947850272386301622017-11-06T12:40:57.500-08:002017-11-06T12:40:57.500-08:00Scott, is it possible that the 'disappointing&...Scott, is it possible that the 'disappointing' job growth numbers are at least in part a function of the tight labor markets? I know where i am (Bay area) we have a hard time finding qualified people when we have openings. Perhaps as the labor markets tighten firms focus more on enhancing productivity with the existing labor pool vs simply enlarging the pool? Maybe that is why we are Sid Poolshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01052627149502805361noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-74638022903420406202017-11-05T13:07:24.809-08:002017-11-05T13:07:24.809-08:00US businesses pay an average of 25% corporate taxe...US businesses pay an average of 25% corporate taxes<br />US businesses do not pay any value-added taxes.<br />Every other major nation has those taxes<br /><br />US businesses are not overtaxed.<br />That is complete nonsense unsupported by data:<br />Corporate profit margins are high<br />Corporate executive pay is high<br />Corporate labor costs are low<br /><br />How could corporations be in The Cliff Claven of Financehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13541954550199246606noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-49410843631766820422017-11-04T20:51:27.826-07:002017-11-04T20:51:27.826-07:00Great post.
What will the tax plan look like when...Great post.<br /><br />What will the tax plan look like when finished? Who knows.<br /><br />However, I fear the GOP establishment is dead, now. This tax plan is suicide. They promised middle-class tax cuts, but the headlines are all about corporate tax cuts. (In fact raising the standard deduction is a middle-class tax cut, but modest and not getting any press coverage). The word is the Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.com