tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post2938048787728569473..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: More things bouncing moreScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-4511744873573805372009-05-08T18:38:00.000-07:002009-05-08T18:38:00.000-07:00Those who project 12-15% unemployment are unreason...Those who project 12-15% unemployment are unreasonably pessimistic in my view. Given that we have already seen evidence of moderation in the pace of layoffs--indeed, the household survey says we may nearing the end of significant job losses--a conservative estimate of further job losses would be 2 million more over the next 6-12 months. With normal growth in the labor force, that would give us anScott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-58513914395862667532009-05-08T17:22:00.000-07:002009-05-08T17:22:00.000-07:00Scott,
It's one thing to be bullish on stocks in...Scott, <br /><br />It's one thing to be bullish on stocks in reaction to the huge selloffs of the past 12 to 18 months. Sure, the stock market could continue to rally and we could recover a big chunk of those losses.<br /><br />But it's not hard to find economists who say that the unemployment rate will be "well into the double digits" by the end of this year. <br /><br />Regardless of what youSpiralhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06283696339544813585noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-56566437181740798892009-05-08T16:55:00.000-07:002009-05-08T16:55:00.000-07:00I think oil needs to get a lot higher (100+) befor...I think oil needs to get a lot higher (100+) before it threatens the economy.<br /><br />How strong the economy gets now that it is recovering is the $64,000 question. I see lots of pessimism, and I have been pessimistic myself, but I hate running with the herd. <br /><br />Still, there is a lot of recovering to do before we even get back to where we started about a year ago. That leaves me Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-19865263099461580062009-05-08T15:17:00.000-07:002009-05-08T15:17:00.000-07:00It's hard to see how this economic recovery is goi...It's hard to see how this economic recovery is going to get legs, since the Congress and the President seem eager to cut those legs off at the moment they appear. <br /><br />The massive deficit spending is likely to produce inflation, which reduce the real living standards of US citizens even if other economic indicators imporve. <br /><br />Also, look at the proposals on the table right now.Spiralhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06283696339544813585noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-22188295779975951382009-05-08T13:04:00.000-07:002009-05-08T13:04:00.000-07:00Oil might drive us right back into an early recess...Oil might drive us right back into an early recession. <br /><br />Some argue this past recession was a symptom of oil and the preceeding carnage was the result, not the driver.<br /><br />And if oil as a % of income starts north again you can do the math on what that would mean for the weak balance sheets of Americans.Public Libraryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00017383928897945054noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-46101926123119627562009-05-08T12:16:00.000-07:002009-05-08T12:16:00.000-07:00China is a factor, to be sure, but I don't think t...China is a factor, to be sure, but I don't think they are the only factor contributing to improving conditions in virtually all commodity markets. The number and variety of things that are bouncing is very impressive and points to a global recovery.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-5462988459700217592009-05-08T12:12:00.000-07:002009-05-08T12:12:00.000-07:00You are right. Your three indices are driven by Ch...You are right. Your three indices are driven by China and have nothing to do with the dismal state of affairs in the USA. China has its own rationale for stockpiling commodities and it doesn't bode well for the rest of us.Public Libraryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00017383928897945054noreply@blogger.com