tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post2793869062612121507..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: 8 million new jobs and countingScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger15125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-69963175460160634172013-12-09T03:10:00.866-08:002013-12-09T03:10:00.866-08:00I agree w/ William Mc-
"everyone needs to un...I agree w/ William Mc-<br /><br />"everyone needs to understand that cutting government spending is a matter of life or death for the USA -- Federal spending must be cut by at least 40% immediately just to balance the budget"<br /><br />A tax and regulation (especially EPA) holiday for 3-5 years is a great idea. We (our govt) need to leave things alone for awhile and stop the changes - mkurbohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07766235342741468264noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-87228933869187948782013-12-08T09:21:16.209-08:002013-12-08T09:21:16.209-08:00This comment has been removed by the author.McKibbinUSAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10545798495680527622noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-56758905024044828382013-12-08T04:06:51.604-08:002013-12-08T04:06:51.604-08:00I'm a bit confused here. If we are creating j...I'm a bit confused here. If we are creating jobs at the same rate as in the past, why is the labor force participation rate flat? Is it because the job growth is measured in absolute numbers rather than adjusted for an increasing population?Illuninatihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11423190828865695564noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-88099105205713345642013-12-08T02:46:34.002-08:002013-12-08T02:46:34.002-08:00William M--
I would certainly agree with eliminat...William M--<br /><br />I would certainly agree with eliminating the corporate and personal income tax and replacing with a national sales tax and a heavier gasoline tax...<br /><br />Also, eliminate the tax on dividend income, maybe the first $20k of divined income it it seemed to much of a BJ to plutocrats...<br /><br />Neither party appears to have Main Street in mind...I have to vote for gold Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-62668453371439408092013-12-07T08:46:40.460-08:002013-12-07T08:46:40.460-08:00
Further monetary stimulus, cannot help and will n...<br />Further monetary stimulus, cannot help and will not help; further monetary stimulus will only strengthen the hand of the bond vigilantes who have been calling the Benchmark Interest Rate, ^TNX, higher since October 23, 2013, as the policies have crossed the rubicon of sound monetary and have made “money good” debt, and “money good” currencies, and now “money good” fiat money, that is World theyenguyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08515095308836729043noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-41391738406208265812013-12-07T07:58:09.662-08:002013-12-07T07:58:09.662-08:00Hi Benjamin, economists need to consider capital a...Hi Benjamin, economists need to consider capital allocations as well -- the "glut" of capital you describe means nothing to Main Street businesses, which are desperate for capital in the form of customer lending (buyers need money/credit to major end items such as cars, durable goods such as stoves and refrigerators, expendables such as groceries and fuel, etc.) -- customers along Main McKibbinUSAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10545798495680527622noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-82986231561560011002013-12-07T05:38:11.156-08:002013-12-07T05:38:11.156-08:00The Fed is going to look at tapering, but probably...The Fed is going to look at tapering, but probably next year. The inflation numbers are still dangerously low, as in 1 percent on the PCE and falling. Very little pressure from unit labor costs, commercial rents. Energy costs flat. <br /><br />The problem with such low inflation rates, and a global glut of capital, is that the economy slips into the zero lower bound with any recession. Then you Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-59172506985119117222013-12-06T14:04:39.624-08:002013-12-06T14:04:39.624-08:00I think the smart money is on government intervent...I think the smart money is on government intervention: transfer payments, welfare, food stamps, emergency unemployment, higher tax rates, Obamacare, etc.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-35004546320611779952013-12-06T13:49:42.036-08:002013-12-06T13:49:42.036-08:00PS: The demographic that is wiping out opportunity...PS: The demographic that is wiping out opportunity for everyone except those with world-class skills is population growth, which is reality -- watch for US real working wages to regress to global norms over the balance of the century.McKibbinUSAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10545798495680527622noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-86486358755857833232013-12-06T13:46:37.194-08:002013-12-06T13:46:37.194-08:00Unfortunately, the employment to population ratio ...Unfortunately, the employment to population ratio remains stuck at the same low levels as 2008 -- moreover, the jobs created since 2008 are not sufficient to cover the jobs required due to population increases -- I guess everyone can celebrate the recent jobs creation, but until the employment to population ratio begins to improve significantly, the stagnation in jobs as a percent of the McKibbinUSAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10545798495680527622noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-3916695925353155862013-12-06T12:51:32.919-08:002013-12-06T12:51:32.919-08:00The household survey is extremely volatile so mont...The household survey is extremely volatile so month to month changes can't carry much weight. Over time the two surveys say roughly the same thing. I don't think the long-term difference is significant.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-52449624470895257902013-12-06T12:40:47.003-08:002013-12-06T12:40:47.003-08:00Scott,
What is your take on the Household Survey...Scott, <br /><br />What is your take on the Household Survey over the past twelve months relative to the Establishment Survey. Looks to have average about 80,000 per month versus about 190,000 per month. What do you make of this apparent disconnect...one that usually does not last as long as a year. Perhaps it is an anomaly in the data series for this 12 months, but even over the entire recovery Jason P.https://www.blogger.com/profile/15703616227323090744noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-10361976914092473002013-12-06T12:30:12.860-08:002013-12-06T12:30:12.860-08:00I agree. At first take I started to think the demo...I agree. At first take I started to think the demographics might actually provide a favorable environment for job creation, but its complex.<br /><br />It always seems to circle back to govt invention (taxes, regs, etc.) that are counteracting growth...<br /><br />Thx :o)mkurbohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07766235342741468264noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-2471740576382245602013-12-06T12:12:30.822-08:002013-12-06T12:12:30.822-08:00Demographics most likely accounts for some of the ...Demographics most likely accounts for some of the decline in the labor force participation rate and the lack of growth of the labor force, but not the bulk of it. Demographics don't change fast enough to explain the changes we have seen in the labor force.<br /><br />The "real" unemployment rate, if you assume there are lots of people who dropped out but could be enticed back, is Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-274753817627793852013-12-06T11:58:49.942-08:002013-12-06T11:58:49.942-08:00Scott - what is your take on the baby boomer demog...Scott - what is your take on the baby boomer demographics affecting the labor participation rate?<br /><br />..and what do you think the "real" unemployment rate is ? thxmkurbohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07766235342741468264noreply@blogger.com