tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post2678420387985476568..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Big Picture chartsScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger16125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-85649968098765953362017-09-21T16:56:56.571-07:002017-09-21T16:56:56.571-07:00Txs scott. Going to be a alow grind for a while. ...Txs scott. Going to be a alow grind for a while. Or until the next recession takes down valuations.Alhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01261213308707778791noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-61844906783053323692017-09-21T13:19:40.159-07:002017-09-21T13:19:40.159-07:00rich: When you have an economic and financial mark...rich: When you have an economic and financial market boom, there is every reason to expect the rich to benefit disproportionately. But that does not mean the rest of the population suffers. Living standards are rising for all. If there is a large subset of the country that prefers to spend all or more of their rising incomes that is hardly something that can be addressed at the macro level. Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-68111761105515618642017-09-21T13:16:27.901-07:002017-09-21T13:16:27.901-07:00Alain, re prospective returns. There is one obviou...Alain, re prospective returns. There is one obvious conclusion to the observation that the SP/GDP ratio is high: prospective returns on US equities are highly likely to be significantly less in coming years than they have been in previous years. Even if GDP growth picks up, I would not expect future returns to exceed past returns. Stocks began this recovery in 2009 at an extremely cheap level; Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-77322879913824786252017-09-21T06:43:28.170-07:002017-09-21T06:43:28.170-07:00Good post
Good charts
You should mention median n...Good post<br />Good charts<br /><br />You should mention median net worth too,<br />and show how much of the net worth gains in past decades<br />are concentrated in the top 10% by adjusted gross income.<br /><br />Of course "the rich" are always the richest at stock / bond market peaks<br />but that doesn't make the bottom 90% feel better.<br /><br />A CareerBuilder / Harris Poll richhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08678652315396103234noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-15135547679111045962017-09-20T18:14:08.005-07:002017-09-20T18:14:08.005-07:00Scott. That s&p 500 vs gdp graph..that alway...Scott. That s&p 500 vs gdp graph..that always concerned me a bit. It also is Warren buffets fav. What is your opinion on what this says in thr long long term. To me there is either a lower real rate of return in our cards for the next several years or gdp has to pull out of the 2 percent funk and go on a tear more that the s&p does (the later being counter intuitive ofcourse but gdp Alhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01261213308707778791noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-24859099657701080282017-09-20T10:47:43.323-07:002017-09-20T10:47:43.323-07:00zumbador: thanks!zumbador: thanks!Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-78121631760513444842017-09-20T10:04:44.162-07:002017-09-20T10:04:44.162-07:00It has been awhile since I have dropped you a Than...It has been awhile since I have dropped you a Thank You!!😀 note. I always appreciate, respect and look forward to the commentary, statistical data and information that you provide. <br /><br />Take care<br />Kenn Hugoszumbadorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03124444420383526405noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-15421861231751634952017-09-20T04:31:02.816-07:002017-09-20T04:31:02.816-07:00People like to live in nice places and nice places...People like to live in nice places and nice places are not necessarily the safest places to live. Let's remember that much of CA is ready to fall into the ocean and burns every year! FL just got hammered, the mid west has tornadoes, the east coast can get whacked with hurricanes. Let's not forget Sandy. I live in central NH and we get whacked with snow storms. LIFE is risky and let's stevehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07387986994469835875noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-24962869138034501952017-09-19T11:13:41.772-07:002017-09-19T11:13:41.772-07:00I'm a Houston native, btw. I think inadequate...I'm a Houston native, btw. I think inadequate flood control is an accurate position. No disagreement, but some commentary. From Weather Underground:<br /><br />"Several areas experienced 24-hour rains that on average occur every 1,000+ years (have a .1% chance of occurring in any given year). Early indications suggest longer duration (48- and 72-hour) rainfalls were even rarer"<brrandyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16368254229927808998noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-17035375939989310802017-09-19T09:18:41.548-07:002017-09-19T09:18:41.548-07:00randy: my understanding of Houston's problem w...randy: my understanding of Houston's problem was inadequate flood control infrastructure. Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-19432787845654044052017-09-19T09:17:34.621-07:002017-09-19T09:17:34.621-07:00Johnny: your intuition could be correct. Bear in m...Johnny: your intuition could be correct. Bear in mind that the numbers I'm using are based on outstanding bonds that are liquid and marketable. That excludes are a lot of older and smaller issues that no longer trade frequently. A lot of muni bonds fall into that category, for example. Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-82403083456642620922017-09-19T09:17:31.058-07:002017-09-19T09:17:31.058-07:00Article on land use restrictions, from a UofC prof...Article on land use restrictions, from a UofC prof:<br /><br />https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/06/opinion/housing-regulations-us-economy.htmlGrechsterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08898953158865778397noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-50101506140544113972017-09-19T05:43:42.005-07:002017-09-19T05:43:42.005-07:00After Harvey devastated Houston, there were plenty...After Harvey devastated Houston, there were plenty of editorials across the country basically saying the flooding is Houston's own fault for lax building regulations. Urban sprawl allowed without oversight. Without a doubt, there were some neighborhoods built in the wrong place. On the other hand, some of the worst hit neighborhoods have been there for 70 years and saw the worst flooding randyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16368254229927808998noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-7237388914005173232017-09-19T04:47:26.813-07:002017-09-19T04:47:26.813-07:00I am truly shocked by that chart. I always though...I am truly shocked by that chart. I always thought the bond market was bigger than the stock market...especially in the US.<br />Boy, was I wrong. Thanks for posting that.Johnny Bee Dawghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06836875640973245734noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-20725277415980972002017-09-18T20:34:11.169-07:002017-09-18T20:34:11.169-07:00I think zoning laws are a good example of misguide...I think zoning laws are a good example of misguided fiscal policies. Fiscal policies designed with the best of intentions almost invariably produce perverse and "unexpected" results. One of the best examples of this is our "progressive" tax system, which creates huge increases in marginal tax rates as one moves up the income ladder. This has the effect of making it extremely Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-81366235110683180122017-09-18T20:17:19.159-07:002017-09-18T20:17:19.159-07:00Wonderful charts. For me, it is remarkable that th...Wonderful charts. For me, it is remarkable that the US remains so large relative to the global economy. With all of our problems, I guess we are okay compared to what is out there. <br /><br /> "If this shortfall in growth is due, as I've argued over the years, to misguided fiscal and monetary policies, then the US economy has significant untapped growth potential and could possibly be $Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.com