tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post2515307543286135992..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: No shortage of moneyScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger22125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-8441852979214313592010-07-08T10:17:16.766-07:002010-07-08T10:17:16.766-07:00Rick: strong money demand and corporate hoarding o...Rick: strong money demand and corporate hoarding of cash could lead to deflation, but only if the Fed failed to accommodate the higher demand for money by supplying more bank reserves and/or lowering interest rates. I think it's clear that their provision of $1 trillion in reserves is sufficient. I see no monetary evidence of deflation, indeed all the evidence points to an excess supply of Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-74402874597178366852010-07-07T10:34:41.551-07:002010-07-07T10:34:41.551-07:00"McCain thought running a business meant gett..."McCain thought running a business meant getting a bigger outlay from the House/Senate Appropriations and Armed Services Committees."<br /><br />Really? Any evidence at all to back that up? Because The National Taxpayer's Union and Citizen's Against Government Waste all score his record very favorably. Your boyfriend earned himself an F from both groups. <br /><br />"Still,Paulhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06843411100678811292noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-989920827247856952010-07-07T10:14:33.032-07:002010-07-07T10:14:33.032-07:00Paul-
I found both McCain's and Obama's la...Paul-<br />I found both McCain's and Obama's lack of business experience to be deep negatives. McCain thought running a business meant getting a bigger outlay from the House/Senate Appropriations and Armed Services Committees. <br />Still, our problem now is too-tight money. We have had worse taxes and regs--I can remember Nixon imposing wage and price controls! How do your those apples.Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-67785260475496226572010-07-07T09:59:51.383-07:002010-07-07T09:59:51.383-07:00"We are suffering now not from taxes or regs ..."We are suffering now not from taxes or regs (at least more than usual)but from too-tight money, and we need a bold round of qualitative easing.<br /><br />We're suffering in large part from your boyfriend's war on the private sector. As Fareed Zakaria discovered: "Most of the business leaders I spoke to had voted for Barack Obama. They still admire him. Those who had met him Paulhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06843411100678811292noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-41711338819037879462010-07-07T09:36:41.797-07:002010-07-07T09:36:41.797-07:00More sniveling abut taxes and regs is not the prop...More sniveling abut taxes and regs is not the proper right-wing response at this time. <br />Taxes and regs are much lower now than through most of our history, including the robust 1950-70 period (I can remember when stock market trading commissions were regulated--meaning most consumers had but three choices--passbook accounts, mutual funds or very expensive stock brokers. Believe me, things Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-30060828410463215302010-07-07T09:20:46.313-07:002010-07-07T09:20:46.313-07:00Seriously, if you look at the M@ supply, one would...Seriously, if you look at the M@ supply, one would get the impression the Fed is fighting runaway inflation.Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-49140115165388400972010-07-07T09:10:14.833-07:002010-07-07T09:10:14.833-07:00WJMc: Money is abundant at the macro level, but as...WJMc: Money is abundant at the macro level, but as I've noted before and neglected to repeat here, it is not easy for small and medium sized businesses to get ahold of. The banking system, like many households and investors, is still shell-shocked and unwilling to take on risk as in normal times. The urge to deleverage and the desire to limit risk are still with us. The ratio of M2 to GDP is Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-55195097143031535022010-07-07T09:05:08.522-07:002010-07-07T09:05:08.522-07:00Jeff: What would cause me to be concerned? I think...Jeff: What would cause me to be concerned? I think it would have to be some unforeseen government action that threw a curve ball at the markets and the economy. A round of Smoot Hawley-like tariff wars, for example, that could shut down global trade. A big change in the laws governing the financial system, in which the law of unintended consequences could step in and turn what politicians thoughtScott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-2943309232087980922010-07-07T08:53:06.950-07:002010-07-07T08:53:06.950-07:00One wonders if M2 has any meaning at all in todays...One wonders if M2 has any meaning at all in todays economy. What difference does it make if the fed buys a T-bill paying .15% and creates reserves in the banking system on which it pays .25%. It seems to me that - given the way the financial sector has evolved - the key monetary aggregate is the level of non-information sensitive debt. The evaporation of private sector AAA rated debt in the wake Charleshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00607057013050715435noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-14106035103603620102010-07-07T08:11:49.943-07:002010-07-07T08:11:49.943-07:00I am wondering how long until all the unemployed 5...I am wondering how long until all the unemployed 55-65 year olds look at the their monthly health insurance bills ($800 for one person, and that's a base rate), look at how they will never get another job, and start to wonder if Obamacare is not the most wonderful idea ever. <br />The Fed simply has to kickstart this economy. This is not time for timidity. <br />I would rather live through a Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-16766826075902719192010-07-07T08:05:09.178-07:002010-07-07T08:05:09.178-07:00Scott, isn't the increase in the demand for mo...Scott, isn't the increase in the demand for money coupled with the corporate hoarding of cash consistent with deflation? Whether or not this causes another dip in GDP is irrelevant in a consumer spending driven GDP. If enough people cannot find jobs quickly enough, GDP will not grow at the rate necessary for a full recovery in time to avoid many baby boomers from demanding social security Rickhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07767085539237536998noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-5237925528310244892010-07-07T07:06:40.860-07:002010-07-07T07:06:40.860-07:00If money is so available, why is it that I am expe...If money is so available, why is it that I am experiencing a sharp increase in offers from small to medium-sized business to deliver my services for equity rather than money...? Oh, the money shortage on main street is very real, which is often why businesses hire me to begin with. Money is in short supply right now on the street...McKibbinUSAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10545798495680527622noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-76450312949517084102010-07-06T22:42:22.414-07:002010-07-06T22:42:22.414-07:00Benjamin: M2 growth is not always a sign of easy m...Benjamin: M2 growth is not always a sign of easy money; it is more often a sign of rising money demand which, if not offset by lower interest rates from the Fed, can result in an effective tightening of money.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-78059736624897976552010-07-06T21:09:18.744-07:002010-07-06T21:09:18.744-07:00Scott-
You know, if you look at the chart, it app...Scott-<br /><br />You know, if you look at the chart, it appears the Fed had a more expansionist or accommodative money supply from 2001-2004 than now, despite this being a much deeper recession than the 2001-2 downer.<br /><br />We didn't have much inflation after 2001-4, even with the monetary and fiscal stimulus of the Bush years. <br /><br />Now, we are teetering on the edge of deflationBenjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-23011939371956206902010-07-06T19:54:28.678-07:002010-07-06T19:54:28.678-07:00Scott: As I've said before, I've followed...Scott: As I've said before, I've followed you and have tried to stay positive, especially with your comments on what you "look" at in terms of the market/economy fundamentals. To this point, you have stayed steadfast in your belief that the fundamentals of the economy do not justify the current market valuation....my question is..what would cause you to have some concern?Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00939788327871137653noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-16067975842972151462010-07-06T19:50:15.197-07:002010-07-06T19:50:15.197-07:00JDTapp: I'm not a fan of having the Fed target...JDTapp: I'm not a fan of having the Fed target nominal GDP. It would be a very difficult task. The simpler the better, I say: let's have the Fed target price stability, or just plain old zero inflation. The economy will take care of itself, and if the Fed hits its target I would predict that GDP growth would be optimal. One big problem facing the Fed today is the Humphrey-Hawkins mandate Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-2926669523721642572010-07-06T18:08:47.239-07:002010-07-06T18:08:47.239-07:00Any thoughts about recent calls by Scott Sumner an...Any thoughts about recent calls by Scott Sumner and other monetarists for the fed to pursue NGDP level targeting?Justin D. Tapphttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12618278252714742391noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-34502507259860432682010-07-06T17:52:26.523-07:002010-07-06T17:52:26.523-07:00Cabo,
One other gem:
That bastion of economic l...Cabo,<br /><br />One other gem: <br /><br />That bastion of economic literacy the New York Times trotted out Robert Prector today to predict (according to some wiggly lines on a price chart) a 1000 dow in 'five or six years. Turns out its the most heavily emailed article of the day.<br /><br />The crowd is decidedly bearish. Good time to go shopping.Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11652253509768573561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-39517549798608554112010-07-06T16:08:14.147-07:002010-07-06T16:08:14.147-07:00Interesting to see the continued pessimism in the ...Interesting to see the continued pessimism in the comments to your posts Scott.<br /><br />Wondering how indicative the comments are to the overall sentiment of the market. Judging from where the S&P is, I'd say very indicative, including today when we come into the day bright and cheery and spend the entire session under pressure.<br /><br />However, as you state, lots of indicators are Cabodoghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08299113185481067179noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-50248875895647477992010-07-06T14:45:33.543-07:002010-07-06T14:45:33.543-07:00Ah.. I've arrived at the "Paul Krugman fo...Ah.. I've arrived at the "Paul Krugman for Imperator" site. Yes yes all is well.. just keep printing and borrowing and it'll all end well. <br /><br />My opinion is decidedly different.. we as a nation will not see a recovery until the overall level of debt in the nation comes down to historic norms.. around 150% of GDP, versus the 375% of GDP we currently have.. and this does Mr. Kowalskihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07899577790533734474noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-27212296794930737192010-07-06T13:41:42.032-07:002010-07-06T13:41:42.032-07:00Well, teh alrgest IPO in all hsitory is being brou...Well, teh alrgest IPO in all hsitory is being brought to the gate---in China. A $23 billion monster for Ag. Bank of China. <br />In China, the money supply is expandingg at a 22 percent annual rate. They are avoiding a recession.<br /><br />The Fed needs to blow the doors off. Low interest rates, as Milton Friedman concluded, are a sign of tight money. We have very low interest rates, and theyBenjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-18999022099095429232010-07-06T12:34:12.539-07:002010-07-06T12:34:12.539-07:00"The recent recession was caused by a massive..."The recent recession was caused by a massive increase in the demand for money, which the Federal Reserve then struggled to accommodate."<br /><br />I could easily say my arm was bitten off by an alligator but fail to mention I stuck my arm into his mouth trying to fish out the last dollar bill of the 50 I threw in there.<br /><br />Sounds like from your point of view, if the result is Public Libraryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00017383928897945054noreply@blogger.com