tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post2507146854093439547..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Rates rise, sky doesn't fallScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger20125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-57951348104928287042015-12-30T03:58:20.201-08:002015-12-30T03:58:20.201-08:00I think the market sold off sharply the week befor...I think the market sold off sharply the week before Christmas because of the omnibus spending bill that passed. Commodity prices weren't moving those days. It's just more proof that there's nobody to save us in Washington. Hopes of reform there keep diminishing, as establishment PUBs coddle anti-growth socialist policies of a lame duck Marxist President. Markets rally again Johnny Bee Dawghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06836875640973245734noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-49001696942923322732015-12-23T23:00:17.417-08:002015-12-23T23:00:17.417-08:00Scott, and interest rates at 21.75%, fellow countr...Scott, and interest rates at 21.75%, fellow country Brazil's economy in serious situation, it just all looks so familiar. This is not the U.S. that has the institutions to handle crisis. I guess at the end it would depend on the liabilities structure of their B/S which would have higher impact than any "good intentions" at this point, but on that I have no clue other than looking atRoyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09325498485905547125noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-15628313748239968262015-12-23T09:01:38.797-08:002015-12-23T09:01:38.797-08:00Roy: You are of course correct; capital inflows re...Roy: You are of course correct; capital inflows require confidence. And confidence in the future of Argentina has now gone up meaningfully. As for available capital, not to worry: the supply of capital in the world is essentially limitless. Capital is now returning to Argentina, and the exchange rate has firmed marginally to 13. Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-73167568781702703232015-12-23T07:22:40.065-08:002015-12-23T07:22:40.065-08:00Merry Christmas to one and all!Merry Christmas to one and all!Hanshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05183141792723754273noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-44619600118647477302015-12-23T02:09:16.058-08:002015-12-23T02:09:16.058-08:00Scott,
"Without exchange controls, a weaker ...Scott,<br /><br />"Without exchange controls, a weaker peso (today it is about 14) will attract capital and investment. "<br /><br />Without looking specifically at Argentina, my understanding is that as far as developing countries go, weaker currencies do not necessarily attract capital flows in the longer term. Capital will flow if there is confidence in the economy, and this Royhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09325498485905547125noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-16989855299033844842015-12-20T08:40:59.949-08:002015-12-20T08:40:59.949-08:00Alex: great news indeed from Argentina, thanks for...Alex: great news indeed from Argentina, thanks for the links.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-90469325244615115862015-12-20T08:25:51.671-08:002015-12-20T08:25:51.671-08:00Kenneth: I don't think the market is worried t...Kenneth: I don't think the market is worried that higher rates will threaten the outlook for growth and profits. Instead, I think the market remains very worried about the persistent weakness of commodity prices (including oil(, in the belief that these reflect already-weakened economic fundamentals (e.g., lack of demand, deflationary forces). If the economic fundamentals are weak, as the Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-35713522994926230252015-12-20T07:30:37.357-08:002015-12-20T07:30:37.357-08:00Argentina
With defeat of the Fascist/Marxist gove...Argentina<br /><br />With defeat of the Fascist/Marxist government under the Kirchner's, Exxon just announced an investment in the Vaca Muerta shale play of up to $14 billion. Exxon waited until these klepto-leftists were gone. The new President, Macri, might also boot the huge Iranian presence in Argentina back to Tehran. <br /><br />http://piercepoints.com/Alex in Montanahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16376478891948116192noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-15689232170741500952015-12-19T14:26:11.947-08:002015-12-19T14:26:11.947-08:00uhhh. beavis?uhhh. beavis?marcusbalbushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13596266889368486043noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-84021732393344710762015-12-19T09:42:36.797-08:002015-12-19T09:42:36.797-08:00Diana, re saving: Perhaps some banks will not rais...Diana, re saving: Perhaps some banks will not raise the rate they pay on savings deposits, but competitive forces should work against such an outcome. The Fed is trying very hard to get all short-term rates up, by engaging in reverse repo transactions with a wide range of institutions. If a money market fund, for example, can receive 0.5% on its reverse repo transactions with the Fed, it could Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-36801243700328187262015-12-19T05:58:49.765-08:002015-12-19T05:58:49.765-08:00This has been nothing short of a Kardashian moment...This has been nothing short of a Kardashian moment <br />for too many financial and economic publications and<br />scribes.<br /><br />Will they, won't they? Who is on first? This has been<br />the worst soap opera, since the founding of this needless<br />institution.<br /><br />I am quite surprised that CNN did not do a two week <br />countdown before the BIG Yellon. <br /><br />History, Hanshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05183141792723754273noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-73761548702734182532015-12-18T17:51:12.076-08:002015-12-18T17:51:12.076-08:00uhhhh.uhhhh.marcusbalbushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13596266889368486043noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-3222230368608856532015-12-18T14:31:44.837-08:002015-12-18T14:31:44.837-08:00The sky didn't fall Wednesday but it sure did ...The sky didn't fall Wednesday but it sure did Thursday and Today. What do you think is the reason? My guess is that investors who have been around a long time feel that once the Fed starts to raise rates, regardless of what they say, means that growth will have a steeper slope to climb and it is only a matter of time, not if, before GDP slows and profits so why pay the same multiples for Kennethhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01366772652626173281noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-55182772139715956872015-12-18T14:31:35.547-08:002015-12-18T14:31:35.547-08:00The sky didn't fall Wednesday but it sure did ...The sky didn't fall Wednesday but it sure did Thursday and Today. What do you think is the reason? My guess is that investors who have been around a long time feel that once the Fed starts to raise rates, regardless of what they say, means that growth will have a steeper slope to climb and it is only a matter of time, not if, before GDP slows and profits so why pay the same multiples for Kennethhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01366772652626173281noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-35129486125763463722015-12-18T13:06:24.880-08:002015-12-18T13:06:24.880-08:00Appreciate your positive outlook, but how can &quo...Appreciate your positive outlook, but how can "it make saving more attractive" when the banks will not raise rates for customers.Dhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13160202493785166930noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-52638826395083033612015-12-17T19:05:37.332-08:002015-12-17T19:05:37.332-08:0010-year Treasuries up....
Like I said, the Fed can...10-year Treasuries up....<br />Like I said, the Fed cannot tighten its way to higher interest rates.Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-86620475729655864192015-12-17T12:04:58.672-08:002015-12-17T12:04:58.672-08:00Argentina's issues are too arcane for me, but ...Argentina's issues are too arcane for me, but in light of Scott's writing on the subject in the past, that's good to hear.<br /><br />Scott,<br /><br />I apologize for straying off topic, but if you have any thoughts on the recent, and seemingly annual, analyst comments about Apple's supply chain, as an investor in the stock, I would love to hear them.<br /><br />(If you would Lawyer in NJhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02920739130504981369noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-61221891166686516782015-12-17T08:14:42.567-08:002015-12-17T08:14:42.567-08:00Roy: what's going on in Argentina is a lot of ...Roy: what's going on in Argentina is a lot of good stuff. The new President is doing what needs to be done. By liberalizing the exchange rate, capital should begin to return to the country. It's paradoxical, but when there are exchange controls and capital can't leave, it leaves anyway via a number of circuitous routes. Without exchange controls, a weaker peso (today it is about 14) Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-23837963044937637922015-12-17T06:32:02.544-08:002015-12-17T06:32:02.544-08:00Scott,
What's going on in Argentina now sure ...Scott,<br /><br />What's going on in Argentina now sure looks familiar... how long till they default? Contagion to Brazil? etc. Thanks.Royhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09325498485905547125noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-82610756811717308932015-12-16T16:52:41.957-08:002015-12-16T16:52:41.957-08:00Well, nice post, but does anyone have confidence i...Well, nice post, but does anyone have confidence in the Fed's forecasting ability? The Fed has been over-estimating growth and inflation for years.<br /><br />The Fed has other tools at its disposal, such as the size of its balance sheet, or interest on excess reserves, or its mysterious reverse repo program.<br /><br />The rate move maybe in the wrong direction, but we also have to look at Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.com