tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post2344926844568008502..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Manufacturing weakens, but it's not a death knellScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger31125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-44224017911518461042011-08-08T15:53:21.502-07:002011-08-08T15:53:21.502-07:00Thank you admin,very good blog.
günlük kiralık ...Thank you admin,very good blog.<br /><br /><br /><br /><a href="http://www.gunlukkiralikdaireler.gen.tr//" rel="nofollow">günlük kiralık daireler</a>Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-83104495595156354432011-08-02T18:33:41.346-07:002011-08-02T18:33:41.346-07:00Corporate profits: record high.
Parked on the side...Corporate profits: record high.<br />Parked on the sideline: $2 Trillion.<br />Consumer confidence: 52-week low.<br /><br />Not one great idea, nor the best of human effort is supported by "investment" in gold.Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06365403570563730880noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-36793224329996503222011-08-02T16:22:15.597-07:002011-08-02T16:22:15.597-07:00John, actually I am wrong. It's probably more ...John, actually I am wrong. It's probably more like 1936!Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04068805988034886750noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-83237719477920745322011-08-02T16:05:37.552-07:002011-08-02T16:05:37.552-07:00Benjamin, sure, a cheaper dollar helps exporters a...Benjamin, sure, a cheaper dollar helps exporters and tourism. It also hurts everyone else who holds dollars, including exporters and tourist operators. I am neither of these and hold lots of dollars. A cheaper dollar is simply a hidden tax on everyone who holds dollars.<br /><br />John, it is not 1979. More like 1974…on the cusp of higher inflation and interest rates. What is the annual Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04068805988034886750noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-45133980850886138152011-08-02T14:49:36.011-07:002011-08-02T14:49:36.011-07:00Your comment tempts me to reply:
This is not a re...Your comment tempts me to reply:<br /><br />This is not a replay of 1979, but allowing the private sector to grow is the best solution to our problems. Government is much bigger today than it was in 1979. 25% bigger, in fact: 24% today vs. 19% of GDP then. We need a smaller (relatively speaking) and less intrusive government. The experiment in Big Government has failed.<br /><br />Interest rates Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-71882856558605374932011-08-02T13:56:28.586-07:002011-08-02T13:56:28.586-07:00When I read this blog, I get the impression that s...When I read this blog, I get the impression that supply siders really do believe we are re-living 1979 and the cure to the problem is to simply cut taxes and regulations and let the cornucopea of private sector prosperity spill into our laps.<br /><br />In 1979, interest rates were high. Now they're low.<br /><br />In 1979, inflation was high, now it's low.<br /><br />In 1979, oil was Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06365403570563730880noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-44031532713514365592011-08-02T13:03:20.208-07:002011-08-02T13:03:20.208-07:00PCE price index -- "The price index for PCE d...PCE price index -- "The price index for PCE decreased 0.2 percent in June, in contrast to an increase of<br />0.2 percent in May. The PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 0.1 percent, compared with<br />an increase of 0.2 percent."--fresh fro BEA.<br /><br />Prices are dead in the water--and oil looks weak. <br /><br />Finding inflation now is like snipe-hunting.Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-3533012607558570822011-08-02T12:34:34.362-07:002011-08-02T12:34:34.362-07:00Scott-
Agreed--but with nominal yields on five-ye...Scott-<br /><br />Agreed--but with nominal yields on five-year notes at 1.30, and core inflation rates dropping below 2 percent, and a very slow economy, it seems to me we are doing a Japan.<br /><br />Investors say no inflation ahead. <br /><br />Meanwhile, today's nosedive on the DJIA is not what I expected following a debt deal. Ouch. <br /><br />Oil may be vulnerable. We are seeing Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-65262371342421724162011-08-02T12:10:04.671-07:002011-08-02T12:10:04.671-07:00Low real yields are typically associated with risi...Low real yields are typically associated with rising inflation. Real yields are low because monetary policy is very accommodative and the economy is weak. High real yields are the method the Fed uses to reduce inflation. High real yields make borrowing very unattractive, and this slows the growth of money and inflation. Low real yields make borrowing very attractive, and this fuels inflation.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-6472839417360916942011-08-02T10:20:21.252-07:002011-08-02T10:20:21.252-07:00News Flash:
For the first time in history, the Da...News Flash:<br /><br />For the first time in history, the Daily Treasury Real Long-Term rate has fallen below one percent.<br /><br />See here: http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=reallongtermrateYear&year=2011<br /><br /><br />This is inflation?Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-11287949153946234552011-08-02T08:51:32.179-07:002011-08-02T08:51:32.179-07:00Jeff-
A cheaper dollar means more US exports, mor...Jeff-<br /><br />A cheaper dollar means more US exports, more tourism here. What's wrong with a cheaper dollar?Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-72755407865738711962011-08-02T08:16:27.509-07:002011-08-02T08:16:27.509-07:00I just saw my third corporate layoff announcement ...I just saw my third corporate layoff announcement this week of 30,000+. The list of charts showing no recession on the horizon is impressive. But who cares if the economy is growing at 2% or contracting at 1% when every dollar in your pocket is losing value at 5% to 10% annually!<br /><br />This debt deal really does nothing to actually cut spending. We will still add $7 trillion in new debt Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04068805988034886750noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-53202387418906832412011-08-02T07:31:52.017-07:002011-08-02T07:31:52.017-07:00you have officially turned boringyou have officially turned boringseptizoniomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14253705209662419429noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-16937174758565253412011-08-02T06:36:57.710-07:002011-08-02T06:36:57.710-07:00John, we are consuming less oil too, but we could ...John, we are consuming less oil too, but we could become less dependent on foreign sources by using more of our own resources. We may also see increasing exports of coal going to China. I would love for us to sell more to China.mmanagedaccountshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08188469703346980431noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-71081863138620783832011-08-02T04:04:25.263-07:002011-08-02T04:04:25.263-07:00"energy could be a hotbed for new job opportu..."energy could be a hotbed for new job opportunities, well paying jobs. Unfortunately, there's a muzzle on energy companies in this country."<br /><br />Fact is, domestic crude production is up over the past 2 years, reversing a long downward trend. A chart from Index Mundi:<br /><br />http://www.indexmundi.com/energy.aspx?country=us&product=oil&graph=productionJohnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06365403570563730880noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-66642659189256816232011-08-01T19:15:33.913-07:002011-08-01T19:15:33.913-07:00California sold 38,000 houses in June but there wa...California sold 38,000 houses in June but there was an additional 43,000 in foreclosure filings. <br /><br />Scott Grannis is right that the solution to the dismal housing excess inventory is JOBS. As more people find permanent work, household formations will increase and the demand for housing will go up. <br /><br />Where are the jobs? Manufacturing? Agriculture? Technology? An article in mmanagedaccountshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08188469703346980431noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-18455002732149192532011-08-01T19:12:20.385-07:002011-08-01T19:12:20.385-07:00" I am using the year over year change in the..." I am using the year over year change in the Personal Consumption Deflator, currently 1.2%."<br /><br />And this is debilitating inflation? We have run a QE program that helped stimulate the economy, and resulted in no increase in federal debt (monetary stimulus, not fiscal stimulus), and the inflation rate is 1.2 percent, a rate that is arguably too low, in anything. <br /><br />What Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-38359533030212987792011-08-01T18:34:27.240-07:002011-08-01T18:34:27.240-07:00Re real fed funds rate: The Federal funds rate is ...Re real fed funds rate: The Federal funds rate is the Fed's target overnight interest rate, and is currently set at 0.25%. The real rate is found by subtracting inflation from this rate, and I am using the year over year change in the Personal Consumption Deflator, currently 1.2%.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-62907066887528583952011-08-01T17:48:32.824-07:002011-08-01T17:48:32.824-07:00Do you mind briefly explaining the real fed funds ...Do you mind briefly explaining the real fed funds rate? ThanksAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-14996259185404025872011-08-01T17:30:51.118-07:002011-08-01T17:30:51.118-07:00Re Yardeni: I have great respect for Ed Yardeni, b...Re Yardeni: I have great respect for Ed Yardeni, but I disagree with him on this. The problem with housing is an excess inventory problem. That is being solved with lower prices, but it takes time. Subsidizing the price of homes interferes with the market's natural correction mechanism and introduces more distortions to a market still suffering from previous distortions.<br /><br />Cutting Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-21639013497172937952011-08-01T17:23:02.463-07:002011-08-01T17:23:02.463-07:00John, William and Managed Accounts-
We now have t...John, William and Managed Accounts-<br /><br />We now have two conservative economists, Greg Mankiw and Martin Feldstein, suggesting we have to have a stimulative monetary policy and cheaper dollar. Mankiw suggests the Fed targets 2 percent inflation, and sticking with that--meaning if we fall below trend (as we have) then gunning the engines.<br /><br />There is also a school of conservative Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-34355284759589009762011-08-01T17:04:57.173-07:002011-08-01T17:04:57.173-07:00MManaged Accounts:
One of the things eating the h...MManaged Accounts:<br /><br />One of the things eating the housing market is job insecurity. Why would anyone sign a mortgage contract when they don't have a job contract?Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06365403570563730880noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-76241400001880645942011-08-01T16:00:57.415-07:002011-08-01T16:00:57.415-07:00US manufacturing employment now stands at pre-Worl...US manufacturing employment now stands at pre-World War II levels -- more at:<br /><br />http://wjmc.blogspot.com/2011/04/us-manufacturing-versus-government.html<br /><br />The future of the US is not manufacturing -- far from it -- when can we start talking about how to export healthcare services, training, and education for a premium (?) -- when can we start talking about exporting anything andMcKibbinUSAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10545798495680527622noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-39276146392582125242011-08-01T16:00:55.471-07:002011-08-01T16:00:55.471-07:00I especially love the government revenue chart and...I especially love the government revenue chart and the corporate profits as a % of GDP. I hear congressman say "we've got to get to the business of creating jobs." <br />That means we've got to have better than 0.4% and 1.3% GDP growth. <br /><br />One of the biggest drags on the economy is housing. Ed Yardeni has proposed a solution on his blog (yardeni.com). <br /><br />He mmanagedaccountshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08188469703346980431noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-56249440143876285072011-08-01T14:29:42.872-07:002011-08-01T14:29:42.872-07:00Scott-
Well, thanks for reading the Feldstein pie...Scott-<br /><br />Well, thanks for reading the Feldstein piece. <br /><br />He does cite the low inflation rates of the last several years, even as the U.S. dollar has migrated to exchange rates that favor US exports. <br /><br />I'd hate to look at the GDP numbers now without the export boost--we would be plain dead in the water.Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.com