tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post2294331802349273793..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Construction spending not collapsingScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-15330054999579080482009-01-05T17:27:00.000-08:002009-01-05T17:27:00.000-08:00The real question however is whether this bad news...The real question however is whether this bad news is priced into the market or not. I suspect it is. I suspect the market for commercial mortgage backed securities is pricing in default rates that are much higher than this article mentions.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-67947134006029474692009-01-05T17:15:00.000-08:002009-01-05T17:15:00.000-08:00This is exactly what I was thinking...http://www.n...This is exactly what I was thinking...<BR/><BR/>http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/05/business/05real.html?emPublic Libraryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00017383928897945054noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-52691899626933671142009-01-05T16:57:00.000-08:002009-01-05T16:57:00.000-08:00I wouldn't be surprised to see nonresidential cons...I wouldn't be surprised to see nonresidential construction slump. But by the time it does it may well be the case that residential starts picking up again. In any case, the drag from construction is not likely to be as big going forward as it has been to date.<BR/><BR/>Meanwhile there have been all sorts of changes going on in the economy that we won't know about for many months. I do see macro Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-63815667153701455612009-01-05T16:24:00.000-08:002009-01-05T16:24:00.000-08:00With so many small businesses closing down, large ...With so many small businesses closing down, large retailers shutting hundreds of thousands of doors, and empty office buildings everywhere you look, certainly non-residential construction spending is the next shoe to drop?<BR/><BR/>Is it possible to figure out how many months of inventory are currently on the market? Maybe we are reaching an inflection point for the scarcity of real estate or I Public Libraryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00017383928897945054noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-91884789588399673042009-01-05T14:17:00.000-08:002009-01-05T14:17:00.000-08:00SLAFX is a latin american equity fund and not all ...SLAFX is a latin american equity fund and not all markets have done as well as Brazil. Argentina for example is only up 33%. SLAFX however should be up at least 3-4% today, putting it up 35% from its November lows.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-68560100745419806972009-01-05T14:03:00.000-08:002009-01-05T14:03:00.000-08:00SLAFX does not look like it has bounced 35 percent...SLAFX does not look like it has bounced 35 percent since late November. Wondering if this is a commodity or latin america play?The Therapist Is Inhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07340602598063284934noreply@blogger.com