tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post2260532841448987380..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Long-term trend of commodity prices (2)Scott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-56821541362760177762010-03-25T13:12:36.479-07:002010-03-25T13:12:36.479-07:00I tried the google search too- but found mostly th...I tried the google search too- but found mostly the tin-foil hat, gold-nut crowd.<br />There are no reliable figures, or even roughly right numbers out there for global money supply.<br /><br />Therefore, we can not assemble track records of money supply vs. commodities prices. So, if you are a monetarist, you are flying blind. <br /><br />I suspect the commodities boom of 2005-2008 was not a Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-24212355064167253682010-03-25T12:02:53.150-07:002010-03-25T12:02:53.150-07:00Benjamin,
If Scott doesn't mind I would like ...Benjamin,<br /><br />If Scott doesn't mind I would like to take a stab at your global money supply question. <br /><br />I do not doubt that the issue of the global money supply is an important one, it is just that I have never seen it mentioned in the financial press. I would think it would be quite an exercise compiling it. I did however find a little data on it. You can GOOGLE 'globalJohnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11652253509768573561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-92224208307162335462010-03-25T11:16:10.740-07:002010-03-25T11:16:10.740-07:00One of the market axioms I have heard expressed is...One of the market axioms I have heard expressed is 'sell stocks on the third rate hike'. There are always exceptions I suppose and in the case of this cycle rates are at historic lows. Maybe it depends on the level of the hikes. Not asking for a comment here. Your comment that initial rate hikes should not impact equity prices significantly started me thinking. I agree. The initial hike Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11652253509768573561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-32651848632642614652010-03-25T09:59:29.680-07:002010-03-25T09:59:29.680-07:00How is global money supply determined? Do we even...How is global money supply determined? Do we even have a good way to measure it? <br /><br />Commodities are a global market, so do we not need to understand the global money supply, before we assert that a loose money supply has caused commodities to surge? <br /><br />I suspect we will see a 20-year bear market in gold. Similar to the secular decline following 1986. <br /><br />I contend Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.com