tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post2216203455311116587..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: The Bush/Obama $4.4 trillion spending boomScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger25125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-72901457707700728272010-08-24T19:58:00.261-07:002010-08-24T19:58:00.261-07:00Randy,
I think you get it pretty good. QE must co...Randy,<br /><br />I think you get it pretty good. QE must convince the market that money will be supplied without limit until confidence is restored. Then we have the problem of unwinding it before inflation gets out of hand. There are many unintended consequences to money printing. I think another QE is possible after the election if confidence is not improved. I don't think Bernanke & Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11652253509768573561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-49023777659270905712010-08-24T17:10:13.188-07:002010-08-24T17:10:13.188-07:00I read the Friedman post on money illusion. As bac...I read the Friedman post on money illusion. As backdrop, I agree a little inflation would be welcome at the moment. Slow enough not to scare anyone, but enough to mildly reflate assets so that businesses and investors feel comfortable investing again without mortal fear that everything will be half off next year. However, saying that current low rates is a "foolproof" indicator that randyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16368254229927808998noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-9923027149594108862010-08-24T16:34:38.133-07:002010-08-24T16:34:38.133-07:00This comment has been removed by the author.randyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16368254229927808998noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-43435359871933583712010-08-24T11:21:06.772-07:002010-08-24T11:21:06.772-07:00Re the weak dollar: When the dollar is very weak, ...Re the weak dollar: When the dollar is very weak, that generally means that markets are very pessimistic about the long-term outlook for the U.S. economy. When the economy turns out to be better than the miserable expectations (because fiscal and monetary policy improve), then the market has to change its outlook, and demand for dollars improves.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-81535322949253829962010-08-24T09:58:03.871-07:002010-08-24T09:58:03.871-07:00Public Library-
I am not saying a weak dollar cau...Public Library-<br /><br />I am not saying a weak dollar caused all the good news in the 1990s. <br /><br />I am saying, if a weak dollar is so bad, explain the 1990s. <br /><br />It was a honking great decade.Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-40543005750331313092010-08-24T09:55:11.194-07:002010-08-24T09:55:11.194-07:00Randy-
Also, please see The Money Illusion blog, ...Randy-<br /><br />Also, please see The Money Illusion blog, and the post there on Milton Friedman.<br /><br />http://www.themoneyillusion.com/<br /><br />MF said low interets rates are a sign of tight money.Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-36442269232038330322010-08-24T09:52:26.255-07:002010-08-24T09:52:26.255-07:00Benj I agree with Randy,
You are throwing everyth...Benj I agree with Randy,<br /><br />You are throwing everything in your alphabet soup and calling a weak dollar the general cause of prosperity.<br /><br />Government intervention from Congress to the Fed is crippling this nation from within.Public Libraryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00017383928897945054noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-67213785152794760762010-08-24T09:29:10.291-07:002010-08-24T09:29:10.291-07:00A weak dollar would be FAR LESS bad if we would dr...A weak dollar would be FAR LESS bad if we would dramatically reduce our foreign oil purchases. For the life of me, with all the problems related to that ( please don't tell me our problems in the middle east have nothing to do with oil ), I cannot understand why that is not our #1 policy issue. <br /><br />Why the 90s were great? Some would argue that it was a mirage created when randyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16368254229927808998noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-10566480459527462682010-08-24T09:01:17.969-07:002010-08-24T09:01:17.969-07:00Randy-
A weak dollar? Where do we sign up?
Check...Randy-<br /><br />A weak dollar? Where do we sign up?<br /><br />Check out Scott Grannis' excellent post a few days back, charting the exchange rates of the dollar over the last four decades.<br /><br />The 1990s was a nadir for the US dollar.<br /><br />The 1990s were the best decade we ever had---terrific economic growth, low inflation, a Dow that quadrupled, rising employment and low Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-70146365485370116502010-08-24T08:53:57.562-07:002010-08-24T08:53:57.562-07:00I argued a year ago here getting into the housing ...I argued a year ago here getting into the housing market now was a fools game. <br /><br />Americans still think prices will rise 10% per annum for the next decade. <br /><br />When prices drop another 15% and we continue to shed jobs, the next leg of weak FNMA and FHLMC borrows will hit the eject button too. <br /><br />Americans might finally realize housing isn't a sound retirement vehiclePublic Libraryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00017383928897945054noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-45989977658458483112010-08-24T08:23:41.370-07:002010-08-24T08:23:41.370-07:00shoot forgot the link:
http://hussmanfunds.com/wm...shoot forgot the link:<br /><br />http://hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc100823.htmrandyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16368254229927808998noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-20329481102620273672010-08-24T08:22:25.852-07:002010-08-24T08:22:25.852-07:00Benjamin,
You've noted many times that you st...Benjamin,<br /><br />You've noted many times that you strongly support more QE. John Hussman has a counter-argument that was insightful I thought. To me anyway, it has been paradoxical to have such inflationary pressures with declining rates. This article helped me understand better, and argues the risk is the dollar.<br /><br />"With the U.S. economy predictably weakening, this randyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16368254229927808998noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-80860483006499205192010-08-23T20:04:54.990-07:002010-08-23T20:04:54.990-07:00"The voters are sick and tired of this; the p..."The voters are sick and tired of this; the public sector at all levels of the economy is getting out of control, and it must be reined it. Stop the spending!!"<br /><br />No doubt the spending must stop. However, I fear that about half the voters are not sick and tired of it at all; rather, they want more. At best we will go back to gridlock in November. Given the facts of what we Mark Gerberhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07980096984624964261noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-11187415631979285502010-08-23T18:04:01.530-07:002010-08-23T18:04:01.530-07:00When we vote in the Democrats, we get trillions sp...When we vote in the Democrats, we get trillions spent on government. But, when we vote in the Republicans, we get trillions spent on overseas wars. How does one choose? I do not trust big government (Democrats) or big business (Republicans). I guess that's why I am advocate for the Libertarian platform. More at:<br /><br />http://www.lp.org/platform<br /><br />You are right, the Bush/McKibbinUSAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10545798495680527622noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-4480511746240660532010-08-23T17:56:45.615-07:002010-08-23T17:56:45.615-07:00"We must not let our rulers load us with perp..."We must not let our rulers load us with perpetual debt. We must make our election between economy and liberty or profusion and servitude. A departure from principle in one instance becomes a precedent until the bulk of society is reduced to be mere automatons of misery... And the fore-horse of this frightful team is public debt. Taxation follows that, and in its train wretchedness and Mr. Kowalskihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07899577790533734474noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-55656252863165643712010-08-23T17:11:00.982-07:002010-08-23T17:11:00.982-07:00Public institutions always fight "the last wa...Public institutions always fight "the last war."<br />So, we have federal agencies fighting poverty and racism, a USDA to help farmers, and the Department of Defense spends money like crazy in a Cold War formation. <br />It is still 1962, as far as federal agencies are concerned (well, 1932 at USDA).<br />So, the Fed is fighting its last great war--inflation. <br />Private companies Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-86622958083785777622010-08-23T17:00:55.751-07:002010-08-23T17:00:55.751-07:00Government services are luxury goods. In economics...Government services are luxury goods. In economics jargon the income elasticity of government services >1. When trillions of dollars of wealth have evaporated, government services need to be cut back even more than private consumption. The opposite is happening. This is the equivalent of a massive tax increase. The Democrats have done nothing in the last 4 years to facilitate the necessary Charleshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00607057013050715435noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-8140232110207149982010-08-23T17:00:16.505-07:002010-08-23T17:00:16.505-07:00PL:
Then, you do favor a gold standard, but no Fe...PL:<br /><br />Then, you do favor a gold standard, but no Fed? <br /><br />I share many views with you--and by no means am I married to any view, but especially on monetary policy.<br /><br />Still, eliminating the Fed seems rather radical.....Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-34365445381620030142010-08-23T16:42:58.231-07:002010-08-23T16:42:58.231-07:00Benj,
Our views have more in common than they do ...Benj,<br /><br />Our views have more in common than they do differences. The only difference is the view on money printing.<br /><br />Disinflation in the current environment is the result of too much money printing. In my view, to re-flate via the printing presses does not stabilize the system. I believe It actually creates more uncertainty.<br /><br />Yes spending is out of control but that is Public Libraryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00017383928897945054noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-73308332083157188122010-08-23T16:42:13.440-07:002010-08-23T16:42:13.440-07:00This comment has been removed by the author.Public Libraryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00017383928897945054noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-39090684658203183582010-08-23T15:55:25.666-07:002010-08-23T15:55:25.666-07:00Scott,
Methinks the economy does not have a monet...Scott, <br />Methinks the economy does not have a monetary problem, but a fiscal one. We have too much spending and taxes are too high. We hear banks aren't lending, but we also hear there's nobody coming through the door to borrow. We need an increase in demand and that increase can come from lower taxes, not temporarily but a permanent reduction in spending and taxing. <br />I favored mmanagedaccountshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08188469703346980431noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-48856506096378243282010-08-23T14:55:33.874-07:002010-08-23T14:55:33.874-07:00PL:
Well, capital is cheap. I am not sure that is...PL:<br /><br />Well, capital is cheap. I am not sure that is a bad thing. <br /><br />We may have crossed into a new era in our global economies. For generations, capital was relatively scarce. <br /><br />Thanks to rising productivity, free enterprise and lower tax rates on high incomes, we now have gobs of capital.<br /><br />It may be that savers have to get used to low returns. Supply and Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-22293175314505241462010-08-23T14:15:22.282-07:002010-08-23T14:15:22.282-07:00Bemji,
You describe the very problem that will le...Bemji,<br /><br />You describe the very problem that will lead to the next crisis. Probably a ccy crisis.<br /><br />Too much money, at too low a cost, in way too many hands. However, lest not forget this is paper money and therein lies the problem.Public Libraryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00017383928897945054noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-52870497533001982832010-08-23T14:01:41.853-07:002010-08-23T14:01:41.853-07:00I completely share the view that federal outlays h...I completely share the view that federal outlays have become unsustainable. We must target federal outlays to less than 18 percent of GDP. <br /><br />Fiscal discipline disappeared with President Eisenhower.<br /><br />On the other hand, the money is there.<br /><br />NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--The government bond market put in a somnolent performance Monday in a session guided by no major economic Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-15189000775195807562010-08-23T13:39:33.413-07:002010-08-23T13:39:33.413-07:00Twin Gorillas in the room. The Fed needs reigning ...Twin Gorillas in the room. The Fed needs reigning in and limited powers or they can simply blow-up the US all by their lonesomes.Public Libraryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00017383928897945054noreply@blogger.com